Poll: The EU Referendum: What Will You Vote? (New Poll)

[scorza]

According to some it's the most likely option. Part of the problem for the Leave campaign is that it's really not clear what an "out" Britain will look like. I think leaving but then rejoining the EEA will simply reduce our say in important matters that affect us since we'll bound by a host of rules that we neither have direct democratic influence of nor are negotiated by our government.

The problem for the Remain campaign is that it's not clear what an in Britain will look like either. The words "ever closer union" are etched in the EU's DNA, it's clear that staying as we are today is not an option. If we stay we'll see more and more powers transferred to Brussels, more and more people from eastern Europe moving to the UK (Bosnia applied to join the EU yesterday).

There is no option on the referendum ballot paper for the status quo.

 

[Mr Jack]

My bad. You're correct.

'Tis easily done

In my view, while pulling out of the EU would protect us from TTIP there is every reason to believe that the UK government would willingly sign a worse deal with the US. TTIP is getting steadily paired back by the EU negotiators and many of its worst features are already being gutted. Still, it remains a major concern.

 

[robgmun]

FTA or Common Market-lite minus Free Movement is the favoured UKIP solution to our exit. Trouble is, they won't be getting a lot of say in the post-Brexit negotiations. The other Leave campaign, disliked by the more populist pressure groups, and the Tory party at large favour EEA.

All major options are in the blog post Cosimo linked. Unlike the previous Prof., Grey is actually an expert on the subject.

Seeing that Cameron is going to campaign to stay in even if the EU says they'll murder the first born of every family in the UK. I wouldn't (and i gather no one in the UK) trust him to lead the Brexit, he would have to stand down and let someone else take the lead on this like Daniel Hannan or Jacob Rees-Mogg who basically UKIP-Lite

 

[deuse]

Erm..where did you get that definition of a trade deficit? We make several times our contribution back, yes, and circa 40% of our trade is with the EU, but we also import more from Europe not the other way around.

We trade with the world now, but are presently gambling on making our most crucial market more costly.

Here's our trade relationships directly from the horse's mouth:
http://www.parliament.uk/briefing-papers/SN06091.pdf -- pdf download.

From your own link.

"UK exported £230 billion of goods and services to other EU member states"
"Goods and services imports from the EU were worth £289 billion (52.8% of the total)"

"non EU £283 Billion 55%. £259 Billion 47%"

As I said they buy more and I'm right.
Also the United Kingdom cannot sign a commercial trade accord with China. Nor, for that matter, with any other country.
We surrendered that power on 1 January 1973, the day we joined the EEC.

 

[datalol-jack]

Seeing that Cameron is going to campaign to stay in even if the EU says they'll murder the first born of every family in the UK. I wouldn't (and i gather no one in the UK) trust him to lead the Brexit, he would have to stand down and let someone else take the lead on this like Daniel Hannan or Jacob Rees-Mogg who basically UKIP-Lite

Neither Daniel Hannan or Jacob Rees-Mogg are really top contenders for the Tory throne, but I grant you that given a major 'Leave' vote, Cameron/Osborne might be undone.

 

[Mr Jack]

Neither Daniel Hannan or Jacob Rees-Mogg are really top contenders for the Tory throne, but I grant you that given a major 'Leave' vote, Cameron/Osborne might be undone.

I'm pretty sure Cameron will go in the event of a leave vote and it would be hard for Osborne to claim the throne. The smart money is on either May or Boris to replace him.

 

[robgmun]

Neither Daniel Hannan or Jacob Rees-Mogg are really top contenders for the Tory throne, but I grant you that given a major 'Leave' vote, Cameron/Osborne might be undone.

I'm pretty sure Cameron will go in the event of a leave vote and it would be hard for Osborne to claim the throne. The smart money is on either May or Boris to replace him.

Hannan and Mogg would be preferred choice but yeah it's unlikely. Brios is too flaky so that only leave May to be honest.

 

[datalol-jack]

From your own link.

"UK exported £230 billion of goods and services to other EU member states"
"Goods and services imports from the EU were worth £289 billion (52.8% of the total)"

"non EU £283 Billion 55%. £259 Billion 47%"

As I said they buy more and I'm right.
Also the United Kingdom cannot sign a commercial trade accord with China. Nor, for that matter, with any other country.
We surrendered that power on 1 January 1973, the day we joined the EEC.

Are you sure? Do you mean they sell us more, and wouldn't want to lose out? We do route large chunks of our world trade via the EU, but that's not quite the same as them buying more from us. We are however projected to sell more to the EU in future, so I can understand that angle.

Perhaps, you still can send out trade delegations and get direct investment though, but getting an equitable deal of the size and volume of TTIP, say, with China, and without the EU working as a bloc, is impossible. Plus we are valued in the East as an entry-point to the common market, I'm not sure what the Chinese will offer us if we were to leave. The US might also withdraw from their current approach, and offer us something half-baked and more restrictive as a result. As pointed out before, our courts are more investor-friendly and would be more willing to sign up to closed corporate courts and the like on top of other things.

There are also costs of trade an independent nation must be cognizant of:
https://www.cer.org.uk/insights/would-britain%E2%80%99s-trade-be-freer-outside-eu

If you don't trust CER, here's the source of data they use from the World Bank:
http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/trade-costs-dataset -- it's linked in the article anyway, but easy to miss.

 

[datalol-jack]

Hannan and Mogg would be preferred choice but yeah it's unlikely. Brios is too flaky so that only leave May to be honest.

Should be easier to tell next Monday, after the EU talks and the scheduled cabinet meeting. Both Boris and May are playing their cards close to their chests for the moment.

 

[datalol-jack]

That's something you'll have to ask the EU bureaucrats, from what i've seen from the EU parliament sittings they seem like very meat headed arrogant entitled egocentrics who are more interested in serving their own interests then serving the people of europe. Honestly you think our MP's are bad and untrustworthy? They pale into comparison to the EU lot who really seem like thoroughly unpleasant people that i wouldn't **** on them if they were on fire!

But suppose you're in their shoes, why would you give Britain a deal so good it would encourage other members leaving? How would that make sense for the bloc that, although not without its own Eurosceptic parties and protest groups, wants to stay together in a functioning Common Market, with its stability mechanisms and other institutions intact?

 

[scorza]

But suppose you're in their shoes, why would you give Britain a deal so good it would encourage other members leaving? How would that make sense for the bloc that, although not without its own Eurosceptic parties and protest groups, wants to stay together in a functioning Common Market, with its stability mechanisms and other institutions intact?

Why shouldn't other countries that want to, leave the EU? I think it's really dangerous if Brussels starts enforcing EU membership with threats. Ultimately they've got to convince people that being a member of the EU, that transferring sovereignty away from your country to Brussels is in the interests of EU citizens. I don't believe they can do that for EU citizens with British nationality - maybe they can for other countries.

 

[stewski]

Why shouldn't other countries that want to, leave the EU? I think it's really dangerous if Brussels starts enforcing EU membership with threats. Ultimately they've got to convince people that being a member of the EU, that transferring sovereignty away from your country to Brussels is in the interests of EU citizens. I don't believe they can do that for EU citizens with British nationality - maybe they can for other countries.

Or in answer to the point made about trade deals, lalala that's dangerous of the EU?

 

[datalol-jack]

And things can move on again. Schengen is going to collapse this summer anyway so talk of free movement may well become academic.

People were giving it a couple of months to live since November last year, and it's still chugging along, albeit with occasional drama and talks of temp controls and suspensions of Greece from the scheme, I believe.

Worst case scenario: it gets mothballed as an exceptional measure, and we will have to wave a compatible document to prove our EU citizenship to cross borders. Free movement, as written into the European Law, then shall apply as before.

Interesting side note: Under the treaty of Rome, public service employment has been exempted from the Freedom of Movement articles all along [member states have more powers here]. I didn't know that!

But this special treatment has been under review for a while for sectors not vital to national security and the like; although it hasn't got anywhere concrete yet. I imagine France is opposed? I don't think we've used this proviso that much for the obvious public sector divisions as we need doctors, particularly dentists, nurses, carers, etc.

 

[deuse]

snip.

Jesus H Christ dude. I've told you twice with evidence from your links.

Back on topic.

 

[scorza]

Or in answer to the point made about trade deals, lalala that's dangerous of the EU?

Negotiations are often long and drawn out processes (even if you're asking for thin gruel), and if you go in with the priority of not giving the other side a good deal then you're trying to impose a bad deal. That imo is very dangerous. What they should be looking for, and will be in the event of a Leave vote, is win-win scenarios - both sides of the negotiation will need to understand why a Leave vote was cast and come up with some sort of deal that respects that. It would be in no-one's interests to impose a deal that threatens the viability and sustainability of the EU or the independent UK.

 

[datalol-jack]

Jesus H Christ dude. I've told you twice with evidence from your links.

Back on topic.

That picture is from the first section of the report I've posted. Just wanted to make sure you got the figures in the right order.

If you have a different interpretation of them, that's fine. The links, claims and sources are there for all to see.

 

[Freakbro]

From your own link.

"UK exported £230 billion of goods and services to other EU member states"
"Goods and services imports from the EU were worth £289 billion (52.8% of the total)"

"non EU £283 Billion 55%. £259 Billion 47%"

As I said they buy more and I'm right.

But that doesn't say they buy more from us, that says we buy more from them

Jesus H Christ dude. I've told you twice with evidence from your links.

Back on topic.

Someone has a reading comprehension fail, not 100% sure it's not me though

 

[bayo000]

The UK isn't allowed to work with other countries while we're in the EU, the EU works with other countries on our behalf (and all the other 27 member states). In fact as soon as trade negotiations start any UK officials present get asked to leave the room.

That's cos people voted in UKIP. I wouldn't want to be in the same room with any of them either.

 

[Danthus]

The UK isn't allowed to work with other countries while we're in the EU, the EU works with other countries on our behalf (and all the other 27 member states). In fact as soon as trade negotiations start any UK officials present get asked to leave the room.

Any evidence for that?

 

[scorza]

That's cos people voted in UKIP. I wouldn't want to be in the same room with any of them either.

Officials, not politicians MEPs don't do the negotiating.