Poll: The EU Referendum: What Will You Vote? (New Poll)
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Soldato
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As posted earlier, MIT's tool is a decent visual guide for headline metrics like imports and exports:
http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/
We buy a lot of fuel and manufactured goods. We sell services. We like to buy just a little bit more; some would say it's the curse of a service-based economy. Is the EU to blame for generations of Tory and Labour chancellors not diversifying the economy, especially during the boom years?
Nonetheless, we do very well out of our 'club fee' in terms of return on our investment: recalling roughly from earlier (rounded figures) about ~£20 billion gross contribution (I'm being very generous in using the Ukip figure from 2012), so net our rebate of ~£8 billion, about £12-14 billion in to get £230 billion out free of quotas, tariffs, levies, etc. What we do pay in some odd regional costs we end up getting back in the rebate, which is why it varies year-on-year, quarter-on-quarter -- it's not the big evil EU ripping us off. But this is not the end of it, quoting from the parliamentary briefing I linked above:
So the piggy bank at No. 11 will be even fatter now and going forward. Not even Kippers are promising anywhere near this level of return for us on the outside; especially if you listen to the only sensible guy they field -- Douglas Carswell. And in the words of their pessimists: "There will be pain!" They're very determined to jump ship, I'll give them that.
In other related news, Europe taken as a whole [including us] is building up a trade surplus vs the rest of the world:
http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/7157615/6-15022016-AP-EN.pdf/0578e7f1-30fe-4db7-94e2-1fd23d97721c
It's a script for a Fistful of Euros, if one plays it right.
Here's a balanced summary of pros and cons of trade surpluses and deficits:
http://cnx.org/contents/KQ_5mSij@5/The-Pros-and-Cons-of-Trade-Def
Mind, I do think someone needs to ease Germany out of its fear of inflation, and an equally friendly fellow simply has got to get George O. to write a better productivity plan for us. There's money to be made, yet we choose to bruise each other in a highly emotional referendum, whilst the Chancellor of the Exchequer puts out his second best out of uncertainty.
http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/
We buy a lot of fuel and manufactured goods. We sell services. We like to buy just a little bit more; some would say it's the curse of a service-based economy. Is the EU to blame for generations of Tory and Labour chancellors not diversifying the economy, especially during the boom years?
Nonetheless, we do very well out of our 'club fee' in terms of return on our investment: recalling roughly from earlier (rounded figures) about ~£20 billion gross contribution (I'm being very generous in using the Ukip figure from 2012), so net our rebate of ~£8 billion, about £12-14 billion in to get £230 billion out free of quotas, tariffs, levies, etc. What we do pay in some odd regional costs we end up getting back in the rebate, which is why it varies year-on-year, quarter-on-quarter -- it's not the big evil EU ripping us off. But this is not the end of it, quoting from the parliamentary briefing I linked above:
So the piggy bank at No. 11 will be even fatter now and going forward. Not even Kippers are promising anywhere near this level of return for us on the outside; especially if you listen to the only sensible guy they field -- Douglas Carswell. And in the words of their pessimists: "There will be pain!" They're very determined to jump ship, I'll give them that.
In other related news, Europe taken as a whole [including us] is building up a trade surplus vs the rest of the world:
http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/7157615/6-15022016-AP-EN.pdf/0578e7f1-30fe-4db7-94e2-1fd23d97721c
It's a script for a Fistful of Euros, if one plays it right.
Here's a balanced summary of pros and cons of trade surpluses and deficits:
http://cnx.org/contents/KQ_5mSij@5/The-Pros-and-Cons-of-Trade-Def
Mind, I do think someone needs to ease Germany out of its fear of inflation, and an equally friendly fellow simply has got to get George O. to write a better productivity plan for us. There's money to be made, yet we choose to bruise each other in a highly emotional referendum, whilst the Chancellor of the Exchequer puts out his second best out of uncertainty.
Or to put it another way, only people on the negotiating team are allowed in the room, which will almost certainly include some UK nationals but not UK officials. I've seen vociferous complaints from German MPs because they feel the details are being hidden from them (they are, because negotiations are sensitive, they will get the chance to vote on the finished treaty like every other member state).
I wouldn't be so confident, the first poll was a decisively 'In' and there's been a massive swing of opinon on this forums which is showing up in real life as well
Yeah but this forum has more ukip than any party other than tory of which at least 50% will be anti yet the poll is iirc 5/3, which effectively means the tory right wingers here are voting sensibly rather than emotionally.
Soldato
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I do know the following, from trawling the EU and our parliamentary records:
- We're free to send out business trade delegations without consulting the EU; businesses can sign direct trade arrangements with our negotiators backing them up -- example: our not so distant trip to China.
- If we do negotiate as an EU bloc; everyone must negotiate from the agreed position of all member states
- We can get direct investment from the rest of the world without EU interference whilst remaining a full member, as can other countries in the bloc
But scorza's line is frequently brought up by our eurosceptic MEPs, so may be they have some evidence stowed away somewhere we don't know about? Could it be their big referendum ace?
Soldato
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It still depends on the sampling and survey method. The Poll of Polls has us on a slim 'Remain' advantage. Which is borne out by the average of various national polls; summaries here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum
I wouldn't say there was a massive national swing, other than when you compare the older poll with this one on OCUK. It may end up like the GE: partisan stances will harden in the run up to the vote, but most people will leave their decision up to the last minute, when they are quietly ensconced inside the voting booth and are free from the glare of media, friends, relatives, etc.
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So it begins...
BBC EU for Beginners
A basic guide to the EU, so basic it's not even worth picking up the spoon!!
BBC EU for Beginners
A basic guide to the EU, so basic it's not even worth picking up the spoon!!
Soldato
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Well, to be fair, their mission does include 'educate'; it doesn't specify at what level.
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Of course the EU aren't to blame for lack of our diversity in production but it doesn't really improve the situation we are in regardless of who is to blame. In fact, with it being our own politicians who are failing to diversify the economy it only makes it all the more likely things won't improve in that regard any time soon.
I'm not fully familiar with the kind of costs we'd get in regards to quota's, levies and whatnot as you described but would they really run so high a levy that we'd not only match the billions in club fee's but also go significantly north enough of those figures that we really do see an actual lasting impact economically? After all, one of the doom and gloom things a lot of people try and convey from a brexit is that we have to renegotiate but we have a 2 year period in which to negotiate a withdrawal agreemant so it's not as bad as people believe.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b8441622-1a6a-11e5-8201-cbdb03d71480.html#axzz40LEelnqu
We have extended chances to renegotiate a fair and meaningful trade arrangement that agreeably won't be as good but despite the doom and gloom some suggest will not leave us in the dark or out in the gutter in day 1. I feel we'll definitely lose out economically but not as much as people think anda lot of the trade you listed as we got from them we'd get anyway just with those levies but minus the other costs that come with EU due to forced migration, lack of control on our own tax laws, health tourism (we agreed the ukip guy wasn't the best to confirm it was crippling the NHS but that doesn't necessarily mean there is no cost to this anyway), benefits etc. There's still a lot of costs within staying attached to the EU that never go accounted for and they could easily be enough to make up for the trade levies when you also factor in not having to spend close to 10 billion to get entry to that in the first place and the 2 years we have to renegotiate before we start to see real losses (unless I've mistaken that somehow and we simply have two years where we are in the gutter but have a 2 year span to renegotiate which sounds less likely).
Also it sounds like based on even pessimistic results we'd lose under 10% based on assuming bad trade agreemants (but remember, our entire economy is not based on trade alone and is also about business within the UK so we then deal with even less startling numbers). It then boils down to the question of whether that is too big a figure for some or whether they feel the shifting environment of the economy is more important than the shifting environment in political and democractic terms as we lose the accountability and control of our domestic situations.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics...-britain-left-eu-european-union-referendum-uk
Something tells me the EU wouldn't want to give us such unfavourable trade terms as it'll only harm themselves so we could be far closer to that minor 2.2% gdp loss and some predicting gains if brexit occurs and then we'd not lose our democracy, not lose our control on immigration (and the costs from this sort of stuff as well). As pointed out in links I've posted before there is just a lot of real world costs to being within the EU that people don't actually add up or equate to being in the EU. Are Sweden and Germany really going to add there extra policing costs to the EU figures? No, but it was caused by an onset of migration the EU are now forcing people into shortly and britain is a country that has tried to avoid that so far but it will become compulsory or net a fine for not agreeing. Most EU policies we don't agree with come with an added punishment of some sort if we choose not to partake as well, often causing other further damage and when it's a policy that is not favourable to your country it ends up a lose lose situation.
Here's one other quote 'In between those who see a net loss or a net gain from Brexit, are those keen to stress the economic consequences could go either way. The thinktank Open Europe noted in March, for example, that an exit might boost UK GDP under certain circumstances' and with 2 years to renegotiate trade terms there is definitely still a potentail for the economy weakening but I would be hesitent to trust it would be by such a big factor. Like I've said from the get go, may as well wait for politicians to rip into one another, do further fact checking for us and pull out more figures we're unsure of before we start any doom and gloom or stressing on the matter.
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Are you the guy who does the stats on the shampoo ads - the ones that say 90% of users think our product is great then in brackets below (80odd woman questioned) i.e all the women in the office
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It's only a few minor points to add to the links, anyone who is serious on the subject wouldn't really mind reading a few extra words but if not then they can jump straight to the links. I'm not the sound bite kind of guy, I'd rather debate and offer real opinion rather than add nothing to a topic. It's only that large because it's spaced out into several paragraphs with 2 links having spaces between them as well. Still, no paragraph is barely greater than 6 sentences so I'd fear for anyone who's that worried about 6 sentences and a few paragraphs lol.
If I wanted I could have further linked to other sources such as post #1090 on page 37 which only further highlights my point on how the lack of flexibility in the EU has caused other undocumented / uncosted charges to our industries like the steel industry which couldn't act but chose to keep it light
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http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/feb/16/david-cameron-suffers-setback-over-proposed-eu-deal
So more humiliation for our Prime Minister as the President of the European Parliament says he can't guarantee that his thin gruel deal will be approved by MEPs. What a shambles.
So more humiliation for our Prime Minister as the President of the European Parliament says he can't guarantee that his thin gruel deal will be approved by MEPs. What a shambles.
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That is a real problem with the EU, we can either delay the referendum to get a definitive answer from the EU (but cameron is scared this will only highlight further riots, issues and failures to create cohesion in other countries and give more time to assess the benefits of EU) or we can not delay it but have no real guarantees from the EU. I think we're better off delaying it and finding out the real answer as to how it's going to work.http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/feb/16/david-cameron-suffers-setback-over-proposed-eu-deal
So more humiliation for our Prime Minister as the President of the European Parliament says he can't guarantee that his thin gruel deal will be approved by MEPs. What a shambles.
Don't foresee that thought path crossing camerons mind though, he wants to get it over and done with before his cabinet members lose the fear of the reshuffle.
EDIT: (missed this point in the article 'The agreement David Cameron hopes to strike will not become officially live until after Britain has voted to stay in. This is the trigger for implementing the agreement.).
It's actually kind of rigged / set so we have to have the referendum before we can even get an answer I suppose. Makes trusting the EU far harder when any deal offerred is subject to change and they've gave us so many warnings they can't promise anything, that it might not end up in treaty etc. that we really are going to have even the most positive looking deal for the UK be potentially ripped to pieces.
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It's only a few minor points to add to the links, anyone who is serious on the subject wouldn't really mind reading a few extra words but if not then they can jump straight to the links. I'm not the sound bite kind of guy, I'd rather debate and offer real opinion rather than add nothing to a topic. It's only that large because it's spaced out into several paragraphs with 2 links having spaces between them as well. Still, no paragraph is barely greater than 6 sentences so I'd fear for anyone who's that worried about 6 sentences and a few paragraphs lol.
If I wanted I could have further linked to other sources such as post #1090 on page 37 which only further highlights my point on how the lack of flexibility in the EU has caused other undocumented / uncosted charges to our industries like the steel industry which couldn't act but chose to keep it light
Well I'm guilty of condensing my thoughts too much. I don't see why I would need to spell everything out for people when they are obviously intelligent and can figure the pointers out themselves. Some deliberately choose not to though as though they are scoring some kind of "Internet Browny Points"!!
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There's no browny points on the internet, as you can see even trying to discuss something leaves you open to any inane criticism such as talking too much
It's the internet, any posts anyone doesn't like they can happily scroll by without the threat of it being a real world face to face social bore they are too polite to refuse to partake in. If you don't like big posts then feel free to miss it or jump straight to the links but there's no browny points in arguing the mundane subjects of if people post too much or too little though. Entirely optional in every sense.http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/feb/16/david-cameron-suffers-setback-over-proposed-eu-deal
So more humiliation for our Prime Minister as the President of the European Parliament says he can't guarantee that his thin gruel deal will be approved by MEPs. What a shambles.
I hate to link the Daily Fail, but this was covered by them yesterday...
MEPs can change David Cameron's EU deal AFTER Britain holds In-Out referendum
He is on a hiding to nothing, along with this country.
It's simply time to walk away from this complete farce that is the EU. It will just continue to get worse, much much worse.
I think today's news is worse, the EP President's job is to get through legislation through the European Parliament - he should know what all the different voting blocs in the parliament will think about this bill and how they will vote, whether they can be convinced or not. If he says he can't guarantee it will go through he's basically saying it won't go through.
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