Poll: The official I voted/election results thread

[Cosimo]

tweets: Paddy Ashdown pledges to eat hat if exit poll is right. Andrew Neil: "Do you have a hat here?" Paddy: "I'll get one."

 

[D.P.]

One should bear in mind with the exit poll the error is suggest to be 20-25 seats.

beyomd that, would be veyr surpsiing and interesting result. The Pollster will have a lot of explaining to do.

I would be happy with that outcome though, SNP landslide of historic proportions (I am thoroughly against their nationalism and independence ideologies but their manifesto is otherwise sound). The Greens getting 2 seats is fantastic news. I'm glad there was no surge in UKIP. and the Lib Dems deserve the thrashing after joining a coalition with the Tories and putting the middle ginger up at the loyal voters.

 

[robfosters]

You're voting for the person. They could get elected as a Tory MP, then a month later switch to the Monster Raving Looney Party and you wouldn't be able to do anything!

Surely you get another by-election, like what happened with the UKIP defectors?

 

[Dark Light]

Hopefully the SNP will get 56 with Conservative getting the remaining 3.

I guess I was closer then I thought.

 

[Freefaller]

I don't get that interview with Harriet Harman at all

if Cons + Lib Dem - didn't get say to quite 326

how could it go over to opposition - as they'd be no-where near would they ? even with SNP ?

It couldn't - I guess the DUP would go across and that would give Con the majority.

 

[Cosimo]

I have to say I hope that the exit poll reflects UKIP's performance

With Farage not being elected.

 

[robgmun]

Don't forget about that £100 donation to charity, oh and "I told you so"

Hey no worries, i had already decided earlier that i was going to donate regardless what was going to happen tonight

 

[McPhee]

I think they would struggle to argue for DPM with 10 seats TBH.

Even if he does hold on to his seat, what do you think the odds are on Nick being leader of the Lib Dems this time next week if they've lost 47 seats?

Zilch is the answer. Im not even sure he'll be a welcome member of the party.

 

[regulus]

What's quite interesting is that on the OCUK 'Voting Intentions' thread, the UKIP were constantly polling higher than the LibDems until today. Just goes to show that what people think they're going to do, change when they stand in the voting booth.

 

[rickjames]

This country...

 

[muon]

Wow, so Conservative and Lib Dem coalition it is.

 

[D13]

Goes to show just how rubbish the polls have been all election and i felt something was up the whole time as i have been saying for 5 long threads. DP was adamant the polls are bang on the money

Am very eager to see UKIP share of the vote.

 

[Merlin5]

Blimey, apparently they were extremely precise on their predictions in 2010.

 

[Steve2000]

Who bets on such things?!!? I can understand betting on sport....but on politics?!? Just no.

Why not? Just the same as betting on anything else.

 

[Strife212]

Looks like Labour has been annihilated. I'm actually really surprised.

 

[thebennyboy]

Only party that can really understand realistic economics. The modern UK is a powerhouse in the global financial market and it needs a government that supports it rather than punishes it.

I know it is not popular outside of London but love it or hate it, it is the reality.

We literally cannot afford a Labour government, they just spend spend spend.

Nobody loves the Conservatives, but of what is on offer? They are just the only party that has the closet thing to qualifications to run our country. In 5 years time after the economy is stable again then perhaps we can look at some sensible spending and it will be interesting which party that is.

I suspect if there was someone with some charisma who ran a campaign based on zero negativity about the opposing party and focused on positives combined with sensible realistic plans then they will land slide a victory.

I was close to not voting but labour would benefit me the most. My biggest issue with the tories is the "Rich get richer, poor get poorer" mantra they seem to follow. Cutting the welfare budget to critical levels whilst giving millionaires and businesses tax cuts, all whilst not closing any loopholes in the business tax system. Terrible party with an arrogant leader. The average joe is going to get shafted big time if those Tory clowns get in again.

 

[D.P.]

Well you can view it like that if you wish but unlike other polls, they're historically fairly on the mark, it's very rare that they get an imbalance of people who share their vote or don't share it meaning they're usually reasonably correct.

2010 Exit Poll was

Con 307
Lab 255
Lib 59
Oth 29

2010 Actual result was

Con 306
Lab 258
Lib 57
Oth 29

So their worst estimate last time round doing the Exit Poll was 3 seats off for Labour.

The exit poll is near enough the result, the only question now is going to be exactly what the numbers end up being and who can form a coalition or agreement to get a government from them.

Last time they did well but historically they have had errors of around 20 seats and they don't expect to be better this time round.

The exit poll is also going to be updated a few times through the night. In 1992 the early exit poll result suggests a small labour lead but the Tories eventually went on to win.

 

[Buckster]

It couldn't - I guess the DUP would go across and that would give Con the majority.

thanks Freefaller

 

[Telecaster]

Polls were probably closer because people don't usually like admitting voting Tory.

Only good thing left to come from this is for Shouty Man to lose out in South Thanet. That would be hilarious and pretty much put him back in his box and he can then **** off back under the same rock Nick Griffin crawled out of.

 

[el_dazza]

Ed Miliband was 4/5 favourite to be next PM this morning, 8/1 now. That's a dramatic change for something like this.