You seem to have confused yourself by not looking at that graph properly. It is comparing sales of the three largest smartphone hardware manufacturers. Not the three largest operating systems. In other words both that graph and the figures you listed are true.
I know both are true. I was arguing that the graph isn't representative of the whole - Samsung were the 6th largest smartphone manufacturer in 2010 and Android's meteoric growth was mainly split across 5 manufacturers. The graph downplays the significance of this growth, despite the fact that it was mainly at Nokia's expense (though some sales were also stolen from RIM). Tomi is using this data to infer that Symbian's death spurred Android on at Nokia's expense. That simply isn't true - Android (and thus Android OEMs) was gaining consistently at Nokia's expense during 2010 as well. There is nothing in Tomi's figures to reinforce his own point - it seems based almost entirely on Samsung's meteoric rise (which happened at everyone's expense, not just Nokia's).[/quote]
Nokia/Symbian was losing market share because it was growing slower than the industry as a whole. But still growing.
Was Nokia's "success" in 2010 down to Nokia, or was it down to the massive growth of the market? If your market share is declining by 6% per quarter in a market that's growing by 12% per quarter, you expect to see some sales growth. Inversely, if your market share is falling faster than the market is growing, you expect to see a sales drop. This is what happened in the first half of 2011 - the market's growth slowed yet Nokia's market share decline continued. Sales fell.
Yet at the same time no individual manufacturer was coming close to Nokia. Nokia was still the biggest and would be for some time.
Based on what projection? Nokia's fall in market share was consistent, so what exactly was the miracle pill that would have halted their fall from the top? Projecting based on 2010 figures, Apple were still going to surpass them around the same time. The surprise was Samsung - nobody expected them to steal the Android pie so fast. Yet this also had little to do with 'burning platform'. Despite Samsung's leap, total Android sales remained consistent with 2010 growth. Samsung gained at the expense of other Android OEMs, while Android gained at the expense of Nokia and Symbian (and RIM).
EDIT: worth a read:
http://dominiescommunicate.wordpress.com/
I'm far from the only one to see a distinct gap between Tomi's figures and Tomi's conclusions. This was posted on another forum.
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