Poll: The Official OcUK EU Referendum Exit poll (and results discussion thread)

[Nate--IRL--]

Well no-one knows until we sit down round the table with the other 27 countries. It depends if the current "we want you gone quickly" bitterness softens a bit. Which I guess is why there's no hurry among the government to to push the Article 50 button just yet and kick start the process. There'll be a cooling off period, which is probably good for all concerned other than the markets which will hate the uncertainty.

Yeah a cooling off period is probably what's needed for the UK, it will interesting to see what come out of the 27 nation meeting (sans UK) during the week.

Nate

 

[SteveOBHave]

Well no-one knows until we sit down round the table with the other 27 countries. It depends if the current "we want you gone quickly" bitterness softens a bit. Which I guess is why there's no hurry among the government to to push the Article 50 button just yet and kick start the process. There'll be a cooling off period, which is probably good for all concerned other than the markets which will hate the uncertainty.

The problem is that now the government is in complete turmoil, no-one knows who has the game plan for the exit... it's a severe case of "well, we're here boys and girls, now what?".

 

[Raymond Lin]

except Norway have a rake of oil approx 1.9million barrels a day which is about 1 million more than the UK so they at least have that going for them. We would only be headed EEA if the next UK PM/government agrees to the terms. If it's Boris I am not sure that deal will ever make it to the table for any serious discussion as they would need to concede everything they basically fought their campaign on, although that doesn't usually bother politicians once they get in power

Exactly, I mentioned that too earlier. Most Leave voters would have no idea about any of this.

It feels like our politics has just went back 40 years and now trying to negotiate another way in again...it all seems a waste of time to me, even if we get back to what we had before. Because ultimately, no matter what happens, we want to trade with the EU.

 

[SteveOBHave]

Exactly, I mentioned that too earlier. Most Leave voters would have no idea about any of this.

It feels like our politics has just went back 40 years and now trying to negotiate another way in again...it all seems a waste of time to me, even if we get back to what we had before. Because ultimately, no matter what happens, we want to trade with the EU.

And functionally again the only ones to win are the rich boys at the top of the pile, due to the 'trickle down economy' the first people to feel the hurt are the demographic that put their trust in the Boris' and Niges of the country.

 

[CREATIVE!11]

But hey - at least now the Leavers have their pride... right? right? amiright?? *cough*

Blind nationalism, voted for by a bunch of people who probably don't even use the internet or know the first thing about the EU.

 

[SteveOBHave]

Blind nationalism, voted for by a bunch of people who probably don't even use the internet or know the first thing about the EU.

Well they're getting a rapid retrospective crash course now...

 

[wildman]

Yeah a cooling off period is probably what's needed for the UK, it will interesting to see what come out of the 27 nation meeting (sans UK) during the week.

Nate

The UK might want a cooling off period, but the EU want movement. The longer this lingers the greater the risk. The meeting without the UK will literally be a pep talk to ensure everyone is aligned before negotiations open up.

 

[OllyM]

Glad I left.

Me too, it's a very sad day for the UK and I fear that the most vulnerable people in society will pay the biggest price.

 

[Nate--IRL--]

Blind nationalism, voted for by a bunch of people who probably don't even use the internet or know the first thing about the EU.

To be fair to your fellow countrymen, the biggest source of information about the EU had been the British press.

Nate

 

[Cern]

The problem is that now the government is in complete turmoil, no-one knows who has the game plan for the exit... it's a severe case of "well, we're here boys and girls, now what?".

Exactly, it's the equivalent of storming out of a marriage with just a suitcase and hailing a cab. The driver says "where to guvnor? and the reply is "dunno, anywhere other than here".

Understandable in an abusive relationship you're desperate to escape from.

Not so understandable in a stable, albeit troubled, relationship where the consequences of leaving are not something you've entirely thought through.

 

[ps3ud0]

So what are the details of being a member of EFTA - for some reason I thought it was literally access to the single market and didnt have any further implications (EEA agreement) . Is this something that existed when the EFTA was formed or a recent addition? Im aware the UK were actually a founder member of the EFTA but wasnt alive to note what the terms were back then...

Finally with Switzerland having such privileged access to the EU without it seems the strings, is this just a money game that perhaps is too rich for UK to partake?

EDIT: Just read that in 1992 Switerland have 15 ****ing referendums and then 11 in 2001 - LOL madness

ps3ud0

 

[Nate--IRL--]

The UK might want a cooling off period, but the EU want movement. The longer this lingers the greater the risk. The meeting without the UK will literally be a pep talk to ensure everyone is aligned before negotiations open up.

If I understand it correctly the UK alone decides when Article 50 is invoked. That said I feel that at that meeting it is going to be very much 26 against 1 in terms of how a position will be decided vis a vis the UK. Ireland will not want to disrupt current trade with the UK, not to mention the situation in the North.

Nate

 

[Nate--IRL--]

So what are the details of being a member of EFTA - for some reason I thought it was literally access to the single market and didnt have any further implications (EEA agreement) . Is this something that existed when the EFTA was formed or a recent addition? Im aware the UK were actually a founder member of the EFTA but wasnt alive to note what the terms were back then...

Finally with Switzerland having such privileged access to the EU without it seems the strings, is this just a money game that perhaps is too rich for UK to partake?

ps3ud0

Switzerland are arguing over the strings and the EU isn't giving an inch.

Nate

 

[Raymond Lin]

To be fair to your fellow countrymen, the biggest source of information about the EU had been the British press.

Nate

That's the problem, they were mostly ill informed. I studied constitutional and EU law at uni. My friends who has 2 PHDs in economics says this is a bad idea. But when I try to argue, the come back was often as scaremongering or some rant that is base nothing more than blind faith and something about British history back when we used to invade countries to get what we want.

That's what make me angry, it is impossible to talk reality and REAL WORLD political outcome of this with them. They simply do not know enough and just retreat back to "oh, I am sure Boris knows best"

 

[SteveOBHave]

Exactly, it's the equivalent of storming out of a marriage with just a suitcase and hailing a cab. The driver says "where to guvnor? and the reply is "dunno, anywhere other than here".

Understandable in an abusive relationship you're desperate to escape from.

Not so understandable in a stable, albeit troubled, relationship where the consequences of leaving are not something you've entirely thought through.

No but it's certainly hurt Cameron and the incumbent government so it's a definite win right? It seems to me like in an effort to hurt 'the man that is oppressing me' the working class of the UK have wielded their democratic power and cut the proverbial nose of their faces. Somewhat understandable when the other options are as equally unenticing as the incumbent. I'm pretty sure they don't want Farage or Boris in but that could well be what they get.

 

[SteveOBHave]

If I understand it correctly the UK alone decides when Article 50 is invoked. That said I feel that at that meeting it is going to be very much 26 against 1 in terms of how a position will be decided vis a vis the UK. Ireland will not want to disrupt current trade with the UK, not to mention the situation in the North.

Nate

Interesting addition to the Article 50 clause.

from Article 50 "For the agreement to enter into force it needs to be approved by at least 72 percent of the continuing member states representing at least 65 percent of their population, and the consent of the European Parliament"

So it looks like the EU could potentially deny exit! Ha! Not that they would...

 

[Raymond Lin]

No but it's certainly hurt Cameron and the incumbent government so it's a definite win right? It seems to me like in an effort to hurt 'the man that is oppressing me' the working class of the UK have wielded their democratic power and cut the proverbial nose of their faces. Somewhat understandable when the other options are as equally unenticing as the incumbent. I'm pretty sure they don't want Farage or Boris in but that could well be what they get.

Oh please don't say that, t might move to Hong Kong for a few years until this blows over !

 

[SteveOBHave]

Oh please don't say that, t might move to Hong Kong for a few years until this blows over !

LOL come to Aus!!!

 

[Cern]

No but it's certainly hurt Cameron and the incumbent government so it's a definite win right? It seems to me like in an effort to hurt 'the man that is oppressing me' the working class of the UK have wielded their democratic power and cut the proverbial nose of their faces. Somewhat understandable when the other options are as equally unenticing as the incumbent. I'm pretty sure they don't want Farage or Boris in but that could well be what they get.

"Every nation gets the government it deserves" (Joseph de Maistre)

 

[Nate--IRL--]

That's the problem, they were mostly ill informed. I studied constitutional and EU law at uni. My friends who has 2 PHDs in economics says this is a bad idea. But when I try to argue, the come back was often as scaremongering or some rant that is base nothing more than blind faith and something about British history back when we used to invade countries to get what we want.

That's what make me angry, it is impossible to talk reality and REAL WORLD political outcome of this with them. They simply do not know enough and just retreat back to "oh, I am sure Boris knows best"

I will say it is quite odd from a Irish perspective, even though we are exposed to the British press, the Irish versions of these papers don't engage in the same level of anti EU rhetoric. It just wouldn't wash over here.

We are much more engaged with the EU, in that we've had to vote on every treaty, the actual EU issues involved have been discussed to death.

If you look at he EU wide polls, you will find the Irish as most enthusiastic about the EU, despite being exposed to the relentless British media hatred of it.

Nate