The price of graphics cards will continue to tank and will stay low for at least 2 years - Here's why

[muon]

I don't 'know' what the price will be next year, but the odds of it being more expensive than it will be in October seem to be high. Between now and January no one is predicting a price drop. There doesn't seem to be any global news or events that might cause the price to drop. Even if it were to drop, consumers would not see a price reduction between now and early next year. Is it possible prices will drop or stop increasing? Yes. Is it likely, I don't think so.

And whats the global event that will cause prices to rise next year? You can't have it both ways.

Also just so you know, the price cap was decided in February 2022, before the Ukraine war. Cornwall Insight were still badly wrong. The impact of the Ukraine war is what will cause prices to go up 80% in October.

I suggest you look at what happened last time there was a global recession.

edit: To further highlight the absurdity of predictions. Here is their complete forecast:

The price cap forecasts from Cornwall showed bills reaching £4,427 in April, before finally dropping slightly to £3,810 from July and £3,781 from October next year.

Their precise 8 ball forecasting. I have a general rule of thumb, if someone tells me they are predicting things to an accuracy level (nearest £) far beyond what is possible, then it tells me they don't really know what they are talking about. They should present information to their confidence level. They may as well have told us how many pence it will cost as well.

 

[arknor]

Also just so you know, the price cap was decided in February 2022, before the Ukraine war. Cornwall Insight were still badly wrong. The impact of the Ukraine war is what will cause prices to go up 80% in October.

Seems more like it's being able to sell electric to Europe at market rate that raises the prices

 

[Poneros]

How often do people max their GPU though? Honestly it's so rare for me, even with only a 6800. I can only imagine it would be even rarer if I had DLSS even though I know Ampere's power management is kind of borked. Besides Cyberpunk I don't think I've (re-)played any recent AAA title (that's also super stressful on the GPU; since 2020) enough that it would qualify.

 

[muon]

How often do people max their GPU though? Honestly it's so rare for me, even with only a 6800. I can only imagine it would be even rarer if I had DLSS even though I know Ampere's power management is kind of borked. Besides Cyberpunk I don't think I've (re-)played any recent AAA title (that's also super stressful on the GPU; since 2020) enough that it would qualify.

I guess depends if you use vsync and what your monitor's refresh rate is. I'm usually maxed (RX 6800) even playing games like Destiny 2 which is pretty old now.

 

[chrcoluk]

How often do people max their GPU though? Honestly it's so rare for me, even with only a 6800. I can only imagine it would be even rarer if I had DLSS even though I know Ampere's power management is kind of borked. Besides Cyberpunk I don't think I've (re-)played any recent AAA title (that's also super stressful on the GPU; since 2020) enough that it would qualify.

Not often when I was on 1080ti, no game has yet to max out my 3080.

 

[0h_no_not_again]

edit: To further highlight the absurdity of predictions. Here is their complete forecast:



Their precise 8 ball forecasting. I have a general rule of thumb, if someone tells me they are predicting things to an accuracy level (nearest £) far beyond what is possible, then it tells me they don't really know what they are talking about. They should present information to their confidence level. They may as well have told us how many pence it will cost as well.

It's an artefact of the way they do their predictions: wholesale energy prices -> consumer unit rates -> energy rate caps -> average domestic energy costs per year.
Sadly, Cornwall have been accurate historically with energy price predictions. Doesn't guarantee accuracy, but they'll be in the right ball park

 

[Poneros]

I guess depends if you use vsync and what your monitor's refresh rate is. I'm usually maxed (RX 6800) even playing games like Destiny 2 which is pretty old now.

For sure always vsync'ed. I do either 4K 60 or 1080p 120 (mostly for Division 2). Granted, in my case my CPU (6800K) is also holding me back a fair bit so I can't always let the GPU go full throttle because I have to find that happy sweet-spot for vsync.

 

[HangTime]

Who do you think buys the most GPU's? You just need to look at the Steam charts to see that it is low to mid range GPU's that are the best sellers. The people that buy them are looking for the best bang for buck. Those people will be feeling the pain of the energy rises, food rises, fuel rises etc and will not be buying GPU's.

So what that is saying is that low to mid range GPUs won't be selling, and maybe get price cuts, but the enthusiast grade GPUs favoured by people on this forum might not be effected as much. By which I mean the people that are NOT looking for the best bang for buck may have loads of money and just continue buying cards priced >£300.

 

[lovelyhead]

So what that is saying is that low to mid range GPUs won't be selling, and maybe get price cuts, but the enthusiast grade GPUs favoured by people on this forum might not be effected as much. By which I mean the people that are NOT looking for the best bang for buck may have loads of money and just continue buying cards priced >£300.

How many people, even those who buy at the top end of GPU's, will still be happy to buy very expensive GPU's when it costs over £120 a month just to run a tumble drier? When it costs over £50 a month just to have a 15 minute shower every morning? Those prices are the prices I will be paying when my tariff changes next month to 40p KWh. Many people will be paying more than that come October. There will always be rich folk who will pay high prices, but those people are a tiny minority and Nvidia is in the business of shifting hundreds of thousands of GPU's if not millions.

 

[Troezar]

How many people, even those who buy at the top end of GPU's, will still be happy to buy very expensive GPU's when it costs over £120 a month just to run a tumble drier? When it costs over £50 a month just to have a 15 minute shower every morning? Those prices are the prices I will be paying when my tariff changes next month to 40p KWh. Many people will be paying more than that come October. There will always be rich folk who will pay high prices, but those people are a tiny minority and Nvidia is in the business of shifting hundreds of thousands of GPU's if not millions.

15 minute shower? What are you, a seal?

 

[JediFragger]

15 minute shower? What are you, a seal?

Bukkaku specialist

 

[arknor]

How many people, even those who buy at the top end of GPU's, will still be happy to buy very expensive GPU's when it costs over £120 a month just to run a tumble drier? When it costs over £50 a month just to have a 15 minute shower every morning? Those prices are the prices I will be paying when my tariff changes next month to 40p KWh. Many people will be paying more than that come October. There will always be rich folk who will pay high prices, but those people are a tiny minority and Nvidia is in the business of shifting hundreds of thousands of GPU's if not millions.

get a clothes line for indoors stick it near a radiator and take 5 min showers

 

[nomadd]

15 minute shower?

Maybe it depends on who he's showering with?

 

[subbytna]

No I don't agree. In 2018 when the last mining craze ended, GPU prices returned to normal (or "tanked" as you call it). I don't remember problems with the economy back then and energy prices were normal.

There has only been 2 "mining crazes"

First time round the world wasn't in the mess it is now. GPUs are a luxury item and along with brutal energy prices, people won't have the money to buy them

 

[NinjaCool]

It looks like Nvidia is taking actions to further reduce the RTX 30 pricing, especially the 3090 series.

NVIDIA GeForce RTX 30 GPUs to see even lower prices by the end of August - VideoCardz.com

NVIDIA to take aggressive actions to reduce RTX 30 pricing Two Chinese news outlets citing their own sources from the supply chain suggest that NVIDIA RTX 30 graphics cards should get even lower prices by the end of this month. The pricing for NVIDIA GPUs has been significantly reduced over the...

videocardz.com

 

[chaparral]

No money after energy rises.

When a large proportion of the population are deciding between heating or eating, buying a GPU costing hundreds or even thousands won't even enter their heads. Things are going to be bad for the next couple of years. Nvidia, AMD, their partners and retailers will be desperate to shift stock.

Many People still have loads of money as are local house prices are going through the roof

Local Market homes increased in value by 4.5% between March and June 2022.

That pushed up the average price of a Local Market house by 18.5% compared to one year ago. It is now £598,693.

 

[Troezar]

Many People still have loads of money as are local house prices are going through the roof

Many people are borrowing money they will have a hard time paying back That's part of what has caused this problem, irresponsible lending and a bidding war pushing up prices. They don't have money they have debt, that doesn't even include the huge credit card debt, car payment debt and lack of savings. I've been saying it for years, there's going to be a reckoning for those who've overstretched themselves.

 

[CuriousTomCat]

There has only been 2 "mining crazes"

First time round the world wasn't in the mess it is now. GPUs are a luxury item and along with brutal energy prices, people won't have the money to buy them

1st mining craze was 2011
2nd mining craze was 2018
3rd mining craze was 2020

AMD, Nvidia GPUs for Cryptocurrency Mining Unveiled

GPU mining might be all the rage again, but there's an important difference this time around -- now, the GPU manufacturers are looking to cash in on the craze.

www.extremetech.com

 

[HangTime]

How many people, even those who buy at the top end of GPU's, will still be happy to buy very expensive GPU's when it costs over £120 a month just to run a tumble drier? When it costs over £50 a month just to have a 15 minute shower every morning? Those prices are the prices I will be paying when my tariff changes next month to 40p KWh. Many people will be paying more than that come October. There will always be rich folk who will pay high prices, but those people are a tiny minority and Nvidia is in the business of shifting hundreds of thousands of GPU's if not millions.

I don't know the answer but anyone who is that hard up is not going to be paying £120/month to run a tumble dryer or choosing to pay that much instead of buying a graphics card.
Or put it this way if they are, then they can probably make a massive saving even compared to current prices by not running their tumble dryer, and use that money to upgrade their GPU instead.
Plus we are computer nerds, we don't spend over 100mins a week in the shower, it would be more like per month

I'm not denying that a squeeze on household finances should reduce the expenditure and demand on luxury goods like GPUs, creating downwards pressure on prices but I do think that the enthusiast market is a bit unusual because it's already populated by buyers who aren't looking for the best value. It's like with cars, a cost of living crisis might see the masses upgrading their lower end cars less frequently but you won't see Ferraris at 50% off.

 

[gpuerrilla]

1st mining craze was 2011
2nd mining craze was 2018
3rd mining craze was 2020

AMD, Nvidia GPUs for Cryptocurrency Mining Unveiled

GPU mining might be all the rage again, but there's an important difference this time around -- now, the GPU manufacturers are looking to cash in on the craze.

www.extremetech.com

Seems some cant fathom the scene has built up since around 2010 and went on to use GPU's for mining. Im not sure how many gen's this has encompassed but certainly one of the reasons I always got the strongest GPU I could afford over the years to compliment the gaming/productivity aspect. I would expect the boinc/grid community would have transgressed into this too way before the mainstream crowds got wind of it.