The Tesla Thread

[Del Lardo]

That doesn't stop people using Tesla specific points to try and make the case for EVs in general.

You did it yourself when you suggested my GF driving to Birmingham wouldn't have been a problem as they have Super Chargers. For between normal use of 20 and 50 miles a day in what is our second car, if she had an EV it most certainly wouldn't be a Tesla! It would be something like a Leaf, which can't use Super Chargers, so wouldn't have been able to have been driven to Birmingham in 1 day.

Most EV owners won't own Teslas, yet most defence among the EV community of EVs will use very Tesla specific points. That argument is flawed and should be challenged.

Sorry but you are posting on a Tesla thread with hypotheticals about your GF driving to Birmingham and you are surprised that people are using Telsa specific points?

OK, so a Leaf, Surrey to Birmingham, option to stop at Waterstock services on the M40, Cherwell Valley services on the M40 & Warwick services on the M40. Three good options there for a charge on the way and a charge on the way back, now IIRC the Leaf doesn't charge as fast as a Zoe so let's say 50 minutes added on to a 2 hour journey. Far from optimal but hey, traffic on the M25 & M40 can easily add more time than that to a journey and you wouldn't say that traffic would stop you driving to Birmingham in 1 day would you?

 

[Skeeter]

It's incredibly early days for EV's

EVs pre-date ICE's in cars.

Sorry but you are posting on a Tesla thread with hypothetical about your GF driving to Birmingham and you are surprised that people are using Telsa specific points?

It was the logical progression of the "what if you do more than 200 miles" -> "Most people don't" -> "an EV would be a second car to most people" -> "what if they occasionally do 200+ miles in it" chain of discussion. The response was "use a Super Charger", which implies that people who own EVs as second cars to commute short distances are buying the top end EVs, namely Teslas. That implication is illogical. Its most definately illogical for the current Tesla models.

Its not just this thread either, its everywhere. Any EV discussion will see the Super Charger argument raised as a counter to the range/charge time issue. The other common one is "in the lab" batteries.

 

[The_Abyss]

Most EV owners won't own Teslas, yet most defence among the EV community of EVs will use very Tesla specific points.

Tesla aren't aiming the Tesla 3 to be capable of being a replacement for every single road user. They're selling their own product and providing the infrastructure to support it.

Their target market is not every single current car owner.

If their solution provides a great replacement for even 10% of the UK users they will still be unable to supply that demand. If they're profitable on their current production capability then - for now - that's enough.

Interesting article here: http://www.wired.com/2016/03/meet-teslas-model-3-long-awaited-car-masses/

 

[Skeeter]

The suggestion that EVs (in their current guise) will only ever be a niche area of the car market is also a rather unpopular one among certain people .

Just look back through this thread to see the liberal use of "most" when describing the amount of people who could use an EV, or home charge.

 

[Raymond Lin]

Sorry but you are posting on a Tesla thread with hypotheticals about your GF driving to Birmingham and you are surprised that people are using Telsa specific points?

OK, so a Leaf, Surrey to Birmingham, option to stop at Waterstock services on the M40, Cherwell Valley services on the M40 & Warwick services on the M40. Three good options there for a charge on the way and a charge on the way back, now IIRC the Leaf doesn't charge as fast as a Zoe so let's say 50 minutes added on to a 2 hour journey. Far from optimal but hey, traffic on the M25 & M40 can easily add more time than that to a journey and you wouldn't say that traffic would stop you driving to Birmingham in 1 day would you?

I live on my own, so yes, i am a 1 car household, but let's say I have one of these. Half the journey i make are 25miles each way, but weddings can be 100miles each way to 200miles. Or to the airport, Gatwick being the furthest one being 160miles away.

Distances aside, there are a few logistics I need to know before I could run something like this.

1 - say having the car at the airport, I would expect that there is a charging port at the parking bay, because the last thing I want to do is having to wait another 30mins in the car park after a 12 hour flight for that supercharge.

2 - on a busy holiday like Bank Holiday or Easter Holiday, the service stations are very busy, people pulling in to get food and refuel. Refuel a car is a 2 min job. Recharge a car is 30mins...they would need hundreds and hundreds of charging ports at each service station really. Because it is one thing to wait 30 mins to charge but imagine now it is doubled to an hour, or may be more if the car in front doesn't charge as fast. So you are there queuing until the guy in front charging. I don't mind waiting in the car for a few mins for the guy in front feeling and go inside and pay. But 10 to 20 mins sitting in a queue so you can move forward soon as the guy in front finish? Or perhaps the guy's car who is charging has gone inside to get food, who knows when he will come back? With all the charging stations full...you have no choice but just pick one randomly and hope he comes back soon?

I am probably thinking too deep into this but i do think they really need to get the charging down to about 5 mins or something or at busy hours you are going to be at the service station for a long time.

 

[The_Abyss]

The suggestion that EVs (in their current guise) will only ever be a niche area of the car market is also a rather unpopular one among certain people .

Just look back through this thread to see the liberal use of "most" when describing the amount of people who could use an EV, or home charge.

But they will only be niche for now - whether or not they prove to be the ultimate cure-all solution for road transport. What Tesla and other manufacturers are trying to do is transformational, and we're at the nascent point of that process right now.

Tomorrow - who knows. But there's no changed tomorrow without some disruption and effort today.

 

[Skeeter]

But they will only be niche for now - whether or not they prove to be the ultimate cure-all solution for road transport. What Tesla and other manufacturers are trying to do is transformational, and we're at the nascent point of that process right now.

Tomorrow - who knows. But there's no changed tomorrow without some disruption and effort today.

I cannot see a future, and have never been convinced there will be one, where battery electric cars are anything other than a niche.

They may be the stepping stone to the solution, but for as long as there are enormous heavy batteries involved, electric cars are on the back foot.

 

[Skeeter]

Refuel a car is a 2 min job. Recharge a car is 30mins...

Almost all of the Tesla Super Chargering Stations in the UK have 2x 120Kw chargers.

Meaning there are just over 60 Super Chargers in the entire country right now.

It adds weight to why batteries are the problem. If you work using your 2 minute/30 minute numbers (and we assume that the average amount of "range" filled up by someone at a petrol pump is around 170 miles, which seems an reasonable assumption?), then if every car in the UK was swapped to the most high performing Tesla over night, they would also need to install 15 times as many Super Charging points as there are petrol pumps in the UK to support them!

(Theres currently around 8,500 petrol stations in the UK. A conservative guess at 6 pumps per station makes 51,000 pumps. That would mean 765,000 Super Charging points!)

 

[Del Lardo]

I live on my own, so yes, i am a 1 car household, but let's say I have one of these. Half the journey i make are 25miles each way, but weddings can be 100miles each way to 200miles. Or to the airport, Gatwick being the furthest one being 160miles away.

Distances aside, there are a few logistics I need to know before I could run something like this.

1 - say having the car at the airport, I would expect that there is a charging port at the parking bay, because the last thing I want to do is having to wait another 30mins in the car park after a 12 hour flight for that supercharge.

2 - on a busy holiday like Bank Holiday or Easter Holiday, the service stations are very busy, people pulling in to get food and refuel. Refuel a car is a 2 min job. Recharge a car is 30mins...they would need hundreds and hundreds of charging ports at each service station really. Because it is one thing to wait 30 mins to charge but imagine now it is doubled to an hour, or may be more if the car in front doesn't charge as fast. So you are there queuing until the guy in front charging. I don't mind waiting in the car for a few mins for the guy in front feeling and go inside and pay. But 10 to 20 mins sitting in a queue so you can move forward soon as the guy in front finish? Or perhaps the guy's car who is charging has gone inside to get food, who knows when he will come back? With all the charging stations full...you have no choice but just pick one randomly and hope he comes back soon?

I am probably thinking too deep into this but i do think they really need to get the charging down to about 5 mins or something or at busy hours you are going to be at the service station for a long time.

Not at all, you are making some well thought out points. How I would handle things if I were Elon Musk!

1. Telsa valet parking at the airport, drop your car off at short stay, it get's taken away charged and brought back to you when you arrive back in the UK ready to be driven home.

2. We're already in the situation where cars have good internet connectivity and traffic monitoring information is allowing for increasingly accurate arrival times, let's assume (sorry Skeeter) that Tesla do actually expand their Super Charger network so they are a lot more prevalent and the network knows what chargers are in use, well then based on the range left in the car you can have a time slot booked at the most suitable Super Charger along your route to minimise the wait. I wouldn't think to claim that it would be as perfect a system as using petrol stations but they're not always perfect either

 

[TheVoice]

2 - on a busy holiday like Bank Holiday or Easter Holiday, the service stations are very busy, people pulling in to get food and refuel. Refuel a car is a 2 min job. Recharge a car is 30mins...they would need hundreds and hundreds of charging ports at each service station really. Because it is one thing to wait 30 mins to charge but imagine now it is doubled to an hour, or may be more if the car in front doesn't charge as fast. So you are there queuing until the guy in front charging. I don't mind waiting in the car for a few mins for the guy in front feeling and go inside and pay. But 10 to 20 mins sitting in a queue so you can move forward soon as the guy in front finish? Or perhaps the guy's car who is charging has gone inside to get food, who knows when he will come back? With all the charging stations full...you have no choice but just pick one randomly and hope he comes back soon?

It sounds like you're imagining a future where electric vehicles are hugely popular yet the technology remains identical to what it is today, which seems unlikely really.

Also don't forget that right now, anyone with a petrol car has to refuel at a petrol station. An electric car could be charged at home, at work, at your destination, wherever really. That'd potentially alleviate a lot of demand from the core network of chargers.

 

[Skeeter]

It sounds like you're imagining a future where electric vehicles are hugely popular yet the technology remains identical to what it is today, which seems unlikely really.

I've done some quick fag paper calculations a few posts up that make it look like the infrastructure couldn't keep up if it tried. Even something like aiming for 10% of the UK market seems unattainable.

So I will add the "the Infrastructure just needs to catch up" line to the pile of EV arguments that don't really add up.

Also don't forget that right now, anyone with a petrol car has to refuel at a petrol station. An electric car could be charged at home, at work, at your destination, wherever really. That'd potentially alleviate a lot of demand from the core network of chargers.

While true, home charging will be significantly slower, which must be factored in. The fastest mainstream home chargers are 7kW, and will only ever be that without massive investment in the National Grid. That means your 170 mile charge would take more like 9 hours. If your only able to have a 3kW charger, its more like 20 hours.

 

[Raymond Lin]

It sounds like you're imagining a future where electric vehicles are hugely popular yet the technology remains identical to what it is today, which seems unlikely really.

Also don't forget that right now, anyone with a petrol car has to refuel at a petrol station. An electric car could be charged at home, at work, at your destination, wherever really. That'd potentially alleviate a lot of demand from the core network of chargers.

Well, hence the last sentence which you left out?

As for people charging at home or at work, people can refuel before they left their towns too but lots still refuel at service stations. I would hazard a guess that statistically, the average numbers can't change that much.

 

[TheVoice]

Well, hence the last sentence which you left out?

Congratulations on solving your own problem then.

 

[Glaucus]

I've done some quick fag paper calculations a few posts up that make it look like the infrastructure couldn't keep up if it tried. Even something like aiming for 10% of the UK market seems unattainable.

So I will add the "the Infrastructure just needs to catch up" line to the pile of EV arguments that don't really add up.

except like normal, your points are complete and utter nonsense.
not only will all cars not change over night to EV, or even in a couple of decades. which means there's a huge amount of time to massively increase infrastructure.

the bigger point, is not every car is going to need a super charger every day, in fact a tiny portion are going to need a supercharger on any single day. on top of that a lot of the public chargers are 22kw which is still a very good fill rate.

then you're also ignoring advancement in battery tech.

 

[Raymond Lin]

Almost all of the Tesla Super Chargering Stations in the UK have 2x 120Kw chargers.

Meaning there are just over 60 Super Chargers in the entire country right now.

It adds weight to why batteries are the problem. If you work using your 2 minute/30 minute numbers (and we assume that the average amount of "range" filled up by someone at a petrol pump is around 170 miles, which seems an reasonable assumption?), then if every car in the UK was swapped to the most high performing Tesla over night, they would also need to install 15 times as many Super Charging points as there are petrol pumps in the UK to support them!

(Theres currently around 8,500 petrol stations in the UK. A conservative guess at 6 pumps per station makes 51,000 pumps. That would mean 765,000 Super Charging points!)

For a busy service station, I want it to have at least 60 charging points, hell, make it 120.

All you need to work out is how many cars get fuel in an given hour and there is your answer. I would bet you a point that there are more than 12 on any given bank holiday between the hours of 9am to 9pm.

Basically, to stop a back log, pick the busiest time, find out how many cars gets fuel. Compare to the charging time, and there is your answer to how many docks you need. Of course if it only takes 2 mins to charge then we won't have much a problem but if we still need something like 20 mins + then it will be a problem.

 

[Del Lardo]

Almost all of the Tesla Super Chargering Stations in the UK have 2x 120Kw chargers.

Meaning there are just over 60 Super Chargers in the entire country right now.

It adds weight to why batteries are the problem. If you work using your 2 minute/30 minute numbers (and we assume that the average amount of "range" filled up by someone at a petrol pump is around 170 miles, which seems an reasonable assumption?), then if every car in the UK was swapped to the most high performing Tesla over night, they would also need to install 15 times as many Super Charging points as there are petrol pumps in the UK to support them!

(Theres currently around 8,500 petrol stations in the UK. A conservative guess at 6 pumps per station makes 51,000 pumps. That would mean 765,000 Super Charging points!)

Flawed logic. You are assuming that everyone fuelling the car is doing that 170 miles in one hit, people don't. People fuel their cars at petrol stations because it is not possible to do so at home/office/town car park, with an EV it is.

No doubt they need a lot more than 60 Super Chargers if suddenly 35 million cars became Tesla EVs but let's assume you can reduce your estimate for the moment.

 

[Skeeter]

then you're also ignoring advancement in battery tech.

Advancement in battery tech will make them smaller, lighter, and higher capacity.

It won't make the National Grid supply your house with more power.

 

[Glaucus]

nope, that's what national grid infrastructure upgrades will do.

 

[Skeeter]

Flawed logic. You are assuming that everyone fuelling the car is doing that 170 miles in one hit, people don't. People fuel their cars at petrol stations because it is not possible to do so at home/office/town car park, with an EV it is.

No doubt they need a lot more than 60 Super Chargers if suddenly 35 million cars became Tesla EVs but let's assume you can reduce your estimate for the moment.

It was a deliberately extreme example. But the calculation needs to be considered. If it takes 15 times longer to charge an EV than it does to fill a petrol car, at what point does the number of EVs reach a level that cannot be sustained by a charger infrastructure? 1%? 10%? Who knows?

 

[Skeeter]

nope, that's what national grid infrastructure upgrades will do.

And that's coming when?