The Tesla Thread

[Amp34]

No. PHEV offers people many use cases where the engine doesn’t start, particularly beneficial for short trips instead of using stone cold engines.

Look at something like the P400e Range Rover sports as a good example.

48V system will move to the higher power 22kW with crank ISG rather than belt integrated starter motors that we I’ll start to see and offer even more content. Whether sailing, active roll control, e booster turbos or even steer by wire systems.

That basically fits into my other use case (big vehicle on short trips), but you have highlighted another - performance vehicles.

Let’s take a couple of other use cases that are more mainstream. Someone buying a Yaris. They can spend £3k more and get them a hybrid version. And save £100 in fuel every year (assuming around 5000miles, using the official stats). That’s a 30 year payoff, assuming no extra costs for the maintenance of both an ICE and EV system. Now, if you never used the ICE engine then it would pay for itself in around 7 years...


Same goes for something like the Mitsibushi Outlander, except it’s around a £7k difference. Something like the RAV4 is a more difficult case. The PHEV costs the same as the Diesel motor, but gets a slightly lower MPG, so it’s a little more expensive overall, but within the ballpark.

The only way most PHEVs make economic sense is if they are only used as electric vehicles, which, realistically is never going to happen.

The same issue falls with most EVs at the moment, but the major cost difference there is batteries, which will fall significantly in price in a few years and IMO make full EVs cheaper to manufacture and maintain than ICE vehicles.

Now if we start talking about more performance (such as the RRS and various sports cars) or just purely on environmental grounds and ignore economics entirely then they are beneficial (to greater or lesser extent).

 

[b0rn2sk8]

Why do you think there’s a requirement for the car manufacturers to physically build their own battery plants? They get much of what they put in their vehicles from third party suppliers already, batteries are just one more part of that. Yes, GM and tesla have their own battery factories, but whether other manufacturers physically build and run their own is another matter.

The number of battery factories being built and in the works is astronomical. By 2021 there will be almost three times the number of batteries being produced to than now. Is likely most manufacturers will contract their battery manufacture to those companies, just as Apple and electronics manufacturers do now.

The lead times are a bit long, and Tesla are definitely ahead of the curve with their own factory (or more precisely the Tesla/Panasonic JV that is the gigafactory), but give it three years and it’s likely the battery issue many other manufacturers are currently having will be significantly reduced.

GM don't make their own batteries nor do Nissan.

Nissan sold their battery supply to a 3rd party.
GM get their cells from LG chem, as do almost every other western auto maker.

The auto industry is all about big press releases about EV's but little actual action. Then there is criticism for setting a fairly reasonable goalpost.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44008098

 

[Mr Jack]

Who siad anything about car factories, they are missing battery factories. Again there is not enough battery supply for all these cars, that's why Daimler has allready broken ground on a battery factory.
Again if you think traditional car companies can just rejig their factories to mass produce EVs you are mistaken.

What makes you think this really matters on the timescale where it could make a difference? EVs are niche currently. And all this stuff Tesla has put in place is recent. Why can't bigger rivals put this stuff in place over the next ten to twenty years it is going to take for EVs to start being a big part of the market? Why can't they leverage their huge existing manufacturing advantage in base and skills to build these cars? Yes, yes, batteries. What about the rest of the car?

Teslas are great, I love them. But the fit and finish is a mile behind more mainstream rivals at similar, or even considerably lower, price points. Jaguar, Audi, Volkswagen, etc. have already solved the problem of making cars that feel exceedingly well built; Tesla hasn't. Once EVs are mainstream all this stuff is going to be much more important. Tesla's to keep putting it in an essentially open goal is not much guide to how they'll cope with competing with the might of the big boys.

 

[Glaucus]

What makes you think this really matters on the timescale where it could make a difference? EVs are niche currently. And all this stuff Tesla has put in place is recent. Why can't bigger rivals put this stuff in place over the next ten to twenty years it is going to take for EVs to start being a big part of the market? Why can't they leverage their huge existing manufacturing advantage in base and skills to build these cars? Yes, yes, batteries. What about the rest of the car?

Teslas are great, I love them. But the fit and finish is a mile behind more mainstream rivals at similar, or even considerably lower, price points. Jaguar, Audi, Volkswagen, etc. have already solved the problem of making cars that feel exceedingly well built; Tesla hasn't. Once EVs are mainstream all this stuff is going to be much more important. Tesla's to keep putting it in an essentially open goal is not much guide to how they'll cope with competing with the might of the big boys.

Becuase in 20 years it will be to late. Like all tech it catches on quicker than majority of people expect. Imo even 10 years will be to late.

 

[Jonnycoupe]

It’s not 20 or 10 years. It’s 2020 the BEVolution is here.

 

[jamoor]

Why do you think there’s a requirement for the car manufacturers to physically build their own battery plants? They get much of what they put in their vehicles from third party suppliers already, batteries are just one more part of that. Yes, GM and tesla have their own battery factories, but whether other manufacturers physically build and run their own is another matter.

The number of battery factories being built and in the works is astronomical. By 2021 there will be almost three times the number of batteries being produced to than now. Is likely most manufacturers will contract their battery manufacture to those companies, just as Apple and electronics manufacturers do now.

The lead times are a bit long, and Tesla are definitely ahead of the curve with their own factory (or more precisely the Tesla/Panasonic JV that is the gigafactory), but give it three years and it’s likely the battery issue many other manufacturers are currently having will be significantly reduced.

It's probbably a business case of vertical integration, it's why toyota own 1/4 of denso.

 

[Mr Jack]

Becuase in 20 years it will be to late. Like all tech it catches on quicker than majority of people expect. Imo even 10 years will be to late.

EVs make up 1.2% of sales. Tesla isn't even half of that. The ridiculously slow approach of governments to this is so pathetic that car makers are throwing a wobbler about potential hybrid electric-only requirements for 2040.

Also, it's not technology, it's manufacturing. Tesla doesn't have much of a technological edge; it has a logistic and manufacturer one. But, here's the thing, it's logistics and manufacturing aren't that impressive; they're merely a bit better than the competition. It's not like Tesla could make a Ford-like proportion of cars. Ramping up to that kind of scale won't be easier for Tesla than for Ford, Toyota, or VW.

 

[Glaucus]

EVs make up 1.2% of sales. Tesla isn't even half of that. The ridiculously slow approach of governments to this is so pathetic that car makers are throwing a wobbler about potential hybrid electric-only requirements for 2040.

Also, it's not technology, it's manufacturing. Tesla doesn't have much of a technological edge; it has a logistic and manufacturer one. But, here's the thing, it's logistics and manufacturing aren't that impressive; they're merely a bit better than the competition. It's not like Tesla could make a Ford-like proportion of cars. Ramping up to that kind of scale won't be easier for Tesla than for Ford, Toyota, or VW.

What do you think technology rmap is like smart phones. This is no different.
Actually I think tesla is quite a bit in the lead, I think if we found out true cost of Tesla batteries everyone would be pretty shocked. Which is why so many are saying the Tesla truck is impossible, they're using their supplier cost of batteries. It's well known Tesla has the edge on cost, what we don't know is exactly how much. People going they must have a break through in chemistry, I don't think they haven't I just think they have reduced price more than people realise.
And no it's not going to be easy for Tesla to ramp up, but they are ramping up and the longer the existing companies allow it, the more it's going to bite them. In America several sectors have already massively been hurt by Tesla.

I would love the other companies to get behind EVs I'm all for it. I just see a lot of talk and not a lot of action. Can't wait to see the I.D Buzz on the road, slated for 2022.

 

[Mr Jack]

What do you think technology rmap is like smart phones. This is no different.

Because Tesla gave away all of its patents; so it can't protect its R&D.

Actually I think tesla is quite a bit in the lead, I think if we found out true cost of Tesla batteries everyone would be pretty shocked. Which is why so many are saying the Tesla truck is impossible, they're using their supplier cost of batteries. It's well known Tesla has the edge on cost, what we don't know is exactly how much.

Yes, they have an advantage. I think you're wildly over-estimating the level of that advantage, and underestimating the power of being able to throw billions at a problem.

I would love the other companies to get behind EVs I'm all for it. I just see a lot of talk and not a lot of action.

There's a lot coming this year. The iPace, Audi's new EV-SUV. There's also a lot of e-versions of existing cars - like the eGolf, or BMW's EV models - with which these manufacturers are testing the water and learning the methods.

 

[Glaucus]

Because Tesla gave away all of its patents; so it can't protect its R&D.

What has that got to do with a doption rates, I'm not talking just Tesla here, but your statement of waiting 10 or even20 years, vast majority of technology does not take anywhere near that long to get a large footbase. The moreevs competitors make, the more people will want EVs and thus it grows Tesla demand as well. This is why he didn't.

I'm not discounting what billions can do (although Tesla is spending billions a year anyway) but things still physically take years to build and so far not many have actually started doing that.

Yes there are releases, but will they be mass produced, will they be profitable etc. It's been lackluster from the big companies over the years, lots of promises lack of delivery.

 

[Amp34]

Mainly cost, there's a reason Tesla can be profitable and it's verticle integration of battery supply. It's also why their batteries are far cheaper than the competition.
Secondly they don't and although the big battery manufactures are building more plants this still isn't enough.
The numbers don't add up. To many cars not enough GW.

If the numbers don't add up then EV is basically dead in the water for the average vehicle. If $40k (which is the minimum at the moment for the M3) is considered the cheapest possible then we're screwed.

I don't think that's the case though. Much of Teslas pricing is due to economies of scale and availability as much as anything else (but designing many of their own components definitely helps I'm sure). Economies of scale is what the big boys are quite good at. For example (and to answer your comment about putting their money where their mouths are earlier) it appears VAG has secured $20B+ of battery supplies (more than Tesla) in the last month or so.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...illion-battery-supplies-in-electric-car-surge

Volkswagen AG secured 20 billion euros ($25 billion) in battery supplies to underpin an aggressive push into electric cars in the coming years, ramping up pressure on Tesla Inc. as it struggles with production issues for the mainstream Model 3.

With the powerpack deliveries secured for its two biggest markets, a deal for North America will follow shortly, Volkswagen said. In total, the Wolfsburg-based automaker has said it plans to purchase about 50 billion euros in batteries as part of its electric-car push, which includes three new models in 2018 with dozens more following.

Volkswagen’s battery plans compare to Tesla’s $17.5 billion worth of purchase obligations as of last year, including $15.4 billion in deals through 2022, primarily related to buying lithium-ion cells from Panasonic, according to a recent filing. Volkswagen called its battery tender one of the biggest purchasing initiatives in the auto industry.

Tesla are the leading edge, but they aren't going to have it all their own way. That said, so far no one appears to be planning on competing directly. Most of the manufacturers are concentrating on small hatchbacks and SUV's rather than direct Model S and 3 competitors.

I’d be more worried about the lithium mines than the factories !

https://www.azom.com/news.aspx?newsID=48280

Long term Lithium is unlikely to be a problem. It just takes time to scale up if there's a sudden change in requirement. Same with the oil industry, which is why prices cycle all over the place ($140>$50>(possibly by the end of the year)$100+).

GM don't make their own batteries nor do Nissan.

Nissan sold their battery supply to a 3rd party.
GM get their cells from LG chem, as do almost every other western auto maker.

The auto industry is all about big press releases about EV's but little actual action. Then there is criticism for setting a fairly reasonable goalpost.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44008098

I don't believe I mentioned Nissan, but GM certainly do make (well at the very least assemble) some of their batteries in house and have done for almost a decade:

http://media.gm.ca/media/us/en/gm/company_info/facilities/battery-assembly/brownstown.html

It's probbably a business case of vertical integration, it's why toyota own 1/4 of denso.

Quite possibly yes. Different manufacturers will make different decisions though, much like most of their other components. Engines and Transmissions being popular larger items to buy in and/or collaborate.

 

[Glaucus]

If the numbers don't add up then EV is basically dead in the water for the average vehicle. If $40k (which is the minimum at the moment for the M3) is considered the cheapest possible then we're screwed.
.

I didn't say price, I said Gwh produced. not that anyone is competing with tesla battery prices either.
No i don't expect Tesla to have it all their own way and I don't expect current manufactures to die. I just expect Tesla in the mid to late 2020s or there about to be a big player, and I expect the current manufacturers to have gone through some pain, how much pain depends on how long they waited before putting their full might behind Evs.

 

[Mr Jack]

What has that got to do with a doption rates, I'm not talking just Tesla here, but your statement of waiting 10 or even20 years, vast majority of technology does not take anywhere near that long to get a large footbase. The moreevs competitors make, the more people will want EVs and thus it grows Tesla demand as well. This is why he didn't.

Tesla only has as much of an advantage as its technology and manufacturing give it. Its manufacturing is tiny. Its technological advantage has been largely given away and its not very good at the stuff the car manufacturers do: witness the fiasco over welding or the poor fit and finish.

I'm not discounting what billions can do (although Tesla is spending billions a year anyway) but things still physically take years to build and so far not many have actually started doing that.

Tesla doesn't have the factories either. Yes, it has a lead on the batteries you're so obsessed with but its ability to put cars out is minuscule. It will need to massively upscale to match any of the mainstream makers.

 

[Glaucus]

Tesla only has as much of an advantage as its technology and manufacturing give it. Its manufacturing is tiny. Its technological advantage has been largely given away and its not very good at the stuff the car manufacturers do: witness the fiasco over welding or the poor fit and finish.

its manufacturing batteries is far from tiny.
Again stop thinking purely cars, as I keep saying batteries is just if not more important for evs.

and thats exactly what they are doing, ramping up production at an ever-increasing rate.
despite that fit and finish they still have the most pre ordered car in the world, with the high 90% either taking up or deferring until awd or normal range battery is available.

 

[b0rn2sk8]

I don't believe I mentioned Nissan, but GM certainly do make (well at the very least assemble) some of their batteries in house and have done for almost a decade:

http://media.gm.ca/media/us/en/gm/company_info/facilities/battery-assembly/brownstown.html

Crucially your source doesn't mention the Bolt, which is build on the LG Chem platform, they buy in the Motor, battery, cooling and electronics all from LG. Most of the money they get for the Bolt gets passed straight to LG which is why they loose so much money on every car.

It would be no different to them buying in the entire drive train and associated electronics for an ICE car, they would never make a dime doing that. Pretty much all of that work is done in house or by a joint venture with another car company to keep the costs down.

https://electrek.co/2017/08/23/lg-us-factory-electric-car-parts-chevy-bolt-ev/


The new Volt also uses LG Chem, as does the Ionic, Zoe, Twizzy, Focus EV and the upcoming Kona plus a bunch of others that are on the way.

 

[Mr Jack]

its manufacturing batteries is far from tiny.

It's tiny compared to the amount of batteries needed for a world running on EV. Also, it's not all Tesla anyway; their Gigafactory is joint with Panasonic and others. And we're talking about purely cars. Their ability to make cars is minuscule.

Again stop thinking purely cars, as I keep saying batteries is just if not more important for evs.

You are radically overestimating how important batteries are; and how hard it is for other people to start making them.

despite that fit and finish they still have the most pre ordered car in the world, with the high 90% either taking up or deferring until awd or normal range battery is available.

The Tesla is highly desirable. There really is little current alternative; but those are still piddly numbers compared to car sales terms and, realistically, the iPace is the first real competitor Tesla have had. The Model 3 is trading on the excellence of the S and the X. The question is whether that will hold up when everyone else enter the market. At the very least Tesla will have to radically up their game to compete with Audi and Jaguar.

 

[Amp34]

What has that got to do with a doption rates, I'm not talking just Tesla here, but your statement of waiting 10 or even20 years, vast majority of technology does not take anywhere near that long to get a large footbase. The moreevs competitors make, the more people will want EVs and thus it grows Tesla demand as well. This is why he didn't.

I'm not discounting what billions can do (although Tesla is spending billions a year anyway) but things still physically take years to build and so far not many have actually started doing that.

Yes there are releases, but will they be mass produced, will they be profitable etc. It's been lackluster from the big companies over the years, lots of promises lack of delivery.

Realistically it shouldn't be 10-20 years, it needs to be (and most manufacturers appear to be targeting) 3-5 years max. We're seeing that now. Volvo plans to have 300k+ EVs a year being sold by 2025 for example (they sold 570k last year, so presumably they actually anticipate more). Similar to Tesla numbers I'd bet.

3-5 years is enough time to ramp up production of lithium and to build battery factories (that aren't already being built). The issue with Tesla is that unless they reduce their prices they aren't in the same ballpark as the average vehicle people actually buy. What are Tesla going to be manufacturing in 3-5 years? A large saloon (Model S, £65k), a large CUV (Model X, £70k) and a mid sized saloon (Model 3, ~£35k) and possibly the Roadster 2 (£200k?) and a smaller CUV (Model Y, ~£40k?, 2020-2021?). Unless they reduce their prices the only manufacturers that are going to "struggle" are the likes of BMW and Mercedes. VAG, Ford, Vauxhall(GM), Hyundai/Kia etc don't have anything to worry about because someone who can afford a £20k Golf is not going to be buying a Tesla instead.

I agree that it's been a bit lacklustre from many manufacturers in the past, the likes of Nissan and Toyota especially. They had an advantage that they couldn't capitalise on for whatever reason. Other manufacturers have been all talk but no show in the past, but 2018/19 does appear to be the turning point. Big investments have been announced and most manufacturers are finally bringing out at least one model in the next 18 months (Hyundai Kona for example, and the XC40).

By 2022 Tesla and it's 5-6 model range is going to be dwarfed by the range of models available from other manufacturers, many of which will hopefully be closer in price to the average UK vehicle. That's going to be great for the industry as a whole and for customers as we will have more choice. At the moment it's "what EV best fits my needs", hopefully in a couple of years we can be deciding "which EV hatchback", or "which EV small SUV".

 

[Amp34]

Crucially your source doesn't mention the Bolt, which is build on the LG Chem platform, they buy in the Motor, battery, cooling and electronics all from LG. Most of the money they get for the Bolt gets passed straight to LG which is why they loose so much money on every car.

It would be no different to them buying in the entire drive train and associated electronics for an ICE car, they would never make a dime doing that. Pretty much all of that work is done in house or by a joint venture with another car company to keep the costs down.

https://electrek.co/2017/08/23/lg-us-factory-electric-car-parts-chevy-bolt-ev/


The new Volt also uses LG Chem, as does the Ionic, Zoe, Twizzy, Focus EV and the upcoming Kona plus a bunch of others that are on the way.

I didn't suggest they made all their batteries, I was just pointing out that other manufacturers do actually already have their own battery plants.

 

[Glaucus]

It's tiny compared to the amount of batteries needed for a world running on EV. Also, it's not all Tesla anyway; their Gigafactory is joint with Panasonic and others. And we're talking about purely cars. Their ability to make cars is minuscule.

why does it matter if its joint, they are tesla batteries. tesla put the majority of the money in.
I think you underestimate the scale of the tesla gigafcatory, with several more to be announced in the coming couple of years. put it this way when they broke ground there's was only 50gwh being produced in the world, that's doubled now, but thats still a large percentage.
and eventually, with the new plans the gigafctory is aiming for around 150gwh per fecatory in early 2020s, they are not small fry at all.

By 2022 Tesla and it's
5-6 model range is going to be dwarfed by the range of models available from other manufacturers, many of which will hopefully be closer in price to the average UK vehicle. That's going to be great for the industry as a whole and for customers as we will have more choice. At the moment it's "what EV best fits my needs", hopefully in a couple of years we can be deciding "which EV hatchback", or "which EV small SUV".

not unless they start closing the gap on cell price. Which theres no signs of that happening yet.

 

[Angilion]

What do you think technology rmap is like smart phones. This is no different.
Actually I think tesla is quite a bit in the lead, I think if we found out true cost of Tesla batteries everyone would be pretty shocked. Which is why so many are saying the Tesla truck is impossible, they're using their supplier cost of batteries. It's well known Tesla has the edge on cost, what we don't know is exactly how much. People going they must have a break through in chemistry, I don't think they haven't I just think they have reduced price more than people realise.
And no it's not going to be easy for Tesla to ramp up, but they are ramping up and the longer the existing companies allow it, the more it's going to bite them. In America several sectors have already massively been hurt by Tesla.

I would love the other companies to get behind EVs I'm all for it. I just see a lot of talk and not a lot of action. Can't wait to see the I.D Buzz on the road, slated for 2022.

I watched an engineer's video on the Tesla truck. He initially thought it would be marketing flannel, but did a detailed analysis and found that it would work from a purely engineering angle. Quite well, actually. It's definitely not impossible. However, it is impractical. Partly because of the cost of the batteries and partly because of the size and weight of the batteries - an EV truck will have a much lower carrying capacity than an ICE truck and that adds a lot to the overall cost regardless of the battery price.

You're assuming that Tesla can produce batteries far more cheaply than anyone else. But as you say yourself, you don't know that. Tesla's costs aren't known. It's not really known that they can manufacture batteries any cheaper than anyone else - things that are "well known" aren't known at all. "well known" just means "widely believed". Such things might be true or they might not.