The Tesla Thread

[Glaucus]

I watched an engineer's video on the Tesla truck. He initially thought it would be marketing flannel, but did a detailed analysis and found that it would work from a purely engineering angle. Quite well, actually. It's definitely not impossible. However, it is impractical. Partly because of the cost of the batteries and partly because of the size and weight of the batteries - an EV truck will have a much lower carrying capacity than an ICE truck and that adds a lot to the overall cost regardless of the battery price.

You're assuming that Tesla can produce batteries far more cheaply than anyone else. But as you say yourself, you don't know that. Tesla's costs aren't known. It's not really known that they can manufacture batteries any cheaper than anyone else - things that are "well known" aren't known at all. "well known" just means "widely believed". Such things might be true or they might not.

a lot of trucking companies disagree with you, including ones which have had hands on with the prototypes, although we dont know you only have to look at analysis of costs of car, and profit margins to realise they are well ahead of the competition on cell price. The next gigafactory, will also include the car manufacturing as well, which will further reduce total cost of car.



we'll have a much better idea after they release the truck, when we know battery size and profit margin.

 

[Angilion]

its manufacturing batteries is far from tiny.
Again stop thinking purely cars, as I keep saying batteries is just if not more important for evs. [..]

Which would be fine if Tesla is intending to be a battery manufacturer selling batteries (and probably battery management software) to car manufacturers. Not so good if it's intending to be a car manufacturer. If you treat EVs as batteries with a car surrounding them you're likely to end up with badly made cars...which is one of the things Tesla is being criticised for.

 

[b0rn2sk8]

Tesla is much more than just a car company, have a look at their solar and power pack offerings. They cover both domestic and commercial installations.


To be honest I think I would live perfectly happily with a hatchback with a 60-75kw battery that charges at up to 100kw/hour.

It's pretty rare I would need to more than 100 miles in one direction (5 or 6 times a year) and when I do 100kw charging (100 miles in 30 mins) would be sufficient to make it work. I also think this would be the same for the majority of car drivers. We are really not that far away from this scenario.

 

[Glaucus]

Which would be fine if Tesla is intending to be a battery manufacturer selling batteries (and probably battery management software) to car manufacturers. Not so good if it's intending to be a car manufacturer. If you treat EVs as batteries with a car surrounding them you're likely to end up with badly made cars...which is one of the things Tesla is being criticised for.

not at all, first they are planning to be a battery supplier to the energy market. something which few peopel take into account when talking about share price, something that is likely to be far bigger and make more money than the car sector. It also means they aren't paying money to middle men and have control of supply chain and thus get cheaper batteries.

secondly, yes there fit and finish is not up to scratch, although if you complain they normall fix this. However it is something they have acknowledged and will be working on.

This is the difference tesla is visibly ramping everything up, where most car manufacturers all through lots of talk, there is little sign of building battery plants, charging infrastructure etc.

To be honest I think I would live perfectly happily with a hatchback with a 60-75kw battery that charges at up to 100kw/hour.
.

for me I think the sweet spot is 180-200 real world range with supercharging or equivalent.
That allows 2 hours on the motorway and enough leeway to stop at a service station, rather than stopping early at a service station and by then im ready for a small break anyway.
Above that just spending more money on a larger battery that I don't really need.
although i don't waste money on nice cars, so until they are super cheap secondhand, so ill be waiting a while

 

[b0rn2sk8]

not at all, first they are planning to be a battery supplier to the energy market. something which few peopel take into account when talking about share price, something that is likely to be far bigger and make more money than the car sector.

This is the sort of thing we are referring to

https://electrek.co/2018/04/30/tesla-powerpack-glass-factory/

2MW battery installed in Scotland this week.

Edit:

Electric ferries are also a thing elsewhere in the world:

https://electrek.co/2018/05/04/elecitrc-ferries-norway-fjords-worlds-first-zero-emission-zone/

 

[Angilion]

a lot of trucking companies disagree with you, including ones which have had hands on with the prototypes, although we dont know you only have to look at analysis of costs of car, and profit margins to realise they are well ahead of the competition on cell price. The next gigafactory, will also include the car manufacturing as well, which will further reduce total cost of car.



we'll have a much better idea after they release the truck, when we know battery size and profit margin.

The fact that they kept those crucial things hidden says a lot. As for profit margins...you're aware that Tesla is losing money hand over fist, right? There isn't any known profit at all. For all we know, Tesla is losing money on every car.

If you're so sure that Tesla batteries are far cheaper than any other manufacturer's batteries, show your evidence. Not "well known". Actual numbers.

And no, there aren't "a lot" of trucking companies who are interested in buying far more expensive trucks with far lower carrying capacities. No doubt there are some who are making public statements about it because it's good publicity to do so, but they'd be silly to deliberately hand such an advantage to their competitors.

Even on a dead flat road and with efficient driving, you're looking at 8 tonnes of batteries. That's a big chunk taken out of the payload. Even if the batteries cost two shillings and sixpence because of Tesla Magic (actually, the cost is more likely to be in the region of $100,000) it's still an issue to lose so much carrying capacity. You'd need about 40% more truck travel, which would add a lot to every cost.

 

[Glaucus]

The fact that they kept those crucial things hidden says a lot. As for profit margins...you're aware that Tesla is losing money hand over fist, right? There isn't any known profit at all. For all we know, Tesla is losing money on every car.
.

Actually its well knowen they are making money on the cars a very healthy margin at that, more than most car manufacturers in fact.
However like angrowingin business it makes zero sense to not spend, you build infastructure and that costs a huge amount of money.

who am I going to believe, trucking companies who have actually had hands-on time and put pre orders in, or some random person on the net. Yeah it's not you who dont see to have a clue.

 

[Mr Jack]

why does it matter if its joint, they are tesla batteries. tesla put the majority of the money in.

It matters because you're acting as if it belongs only to Tesla.

I think you underestimate the scale of the tesla gigafcatory, with several more to be announced in the coming couple of years. put it this way when they broke ground there's was only 50gwh being produced in the world, that's doubled now, but thats still a large percentage.

I don't underestimate it. It's spectacularly big. The requirements for battery production for full EV cars are massively bigger. Tesla's car battery production is not much bigger than its car production. Which is tiny.

To replace ICE cars, EV needs to massively ramp up. The question is whether Tesla's existing lead in making high-end EV (other EV cars vastly outsell them otherwise) is enough to beat the other car manufacturers. Having a small battery lead is not clearly an insurmountable advantage unless others can't ramp up their own manufacturing; which they can.

and eventually, with the new plans the gigafctory is aiming for around 150gwh per fecatory in early 2020s, they are not small fry at all.

So in 5? years they'll have a big factory. Other people can build stuff too.

 

[Angilion]

Tesla is much more than just a car company, have a look at their solar and power pack offerings. They cover both domestic and commercial installations.


To be honest I think I would live perfectly happily with a hatchback with a 60-75kw battery that charges at up to 100kw/hour.

It's pretty rare I would need to more than 100 miles in one direction (5 or 6 times a year) and when I do 100kw charging (100 miles in 30 mins) would be sufficient to make it work. I also think this would be the same for the majority of car drivers. We are really not that far away from this scenario.

What do you think about battery swapping rather than charging? It seems like a viable solution to me - you drive into a battery station, machinery there removes the battery from your car, replaces it with a fully charged one and puts the other battery on charge. With that solution, the range of an EV becomes almost irrelevant as the battery swap takes a few minutes. From a driver's point of view it would be a like for like replacement for the current system of refueling an ICEV. Recharging the batteries can be done as efficiently as possible rather than as quickly as possible because it's no longer tied to driving.

There are issues (battery capacity in stations, the requirement to standardise batteries) but I think it's something to be considered.

 

[Glaucus]

It matters because you're acting as if it belongs only to Tesla.



I don't underestimate it. It's spectacularly big. The requirements for battery production for full EV cars are massively bigger. Tesla's car battery production is not much bigger than its car production. Which is tiny.

.

what matters is who owns the batteries, and that's tesla.
so despite the figures, you are still calling gigafactory production tiny, ok.

To be honest I think I would live perfectly happily with a hatchback with a 60-75kw battery that charges at up to 100kw/hour.
.

there's just no need at all, long range evs and ccs/supercahrging. on top of that its next to impossible to implement. Getting companies to agree on a charging standard is hard enough, let along a common battery pack(as well as the actual batteries, chemsitry, cooling etc). On top of that you get back to renting batteries which if Renault is anything to go by, is not cheap. if you own the battery pack you are swapping a known one for an unkowen one.

 

[Angilion]

Actually its well knowen they are making money on the cars a very healthy margin at that, more than most car manufacturers in fact.
However like angrowingin business it makes zero sense to not spend, you build infastructure and that costs a huge amount of money.

who am I going to believe, trucking companies who have actually had hands-on time and put pre orders in, or some random person on the net. Yeah it's not you who dont see to have a clue.

You have nothing but faith. You have no evidence and no understanding and you don't care about either. You are a believer, one of the faithful, and that is all you want.

Your magic free batteries that weigh nothing don't exist. They're not real. It's just your faith. It's not actually possible to reduce the carrying capacity of a truck by 40% and not have it affect the profitability of the trucking business. No matter how "well known" it is to The Faithful.

If you really think I'm wrong, provide evidence. And no, statements of faith are not evidence.

Would you like a reference to the most relevant paper? Perhaps a link to a tool that applies the relevant formulae to allow you to evaluate the relevant factors? I can provide both (and more). I'm not limited to statements of faith without substance.

 

[Glaucus]

just lol. except i don't believe anything that you just said.
even going by your figures its not 40% reduction, 8ton battery is not 40% reduction of a 36ton truck, thats before you take into account the significant amount of weight you are taking out, ie engine, transmission and fuel.

 

[Mr Jack]

so despite the figures, you are still calling gigafactory production tiny, ok.

How long did it take Tesla (and friends) to make the factory? What is to stop anyone else doing the same?

And, yes, it's tiny compared to the amount needed for full EV. Your entire argument is based about the importance of batteries yet you seem to be failing to grasp the sheer increase in battery capacity needed for cars to be replaced by EV. Banging out one impressive battery factory isn't enough to propel Tesla to a Ford level company. If the factories are needed, other companies will build them and they'll trounce Tesla with their abundant range of advantages.

 

[Glaucus]

How long did it take Tesla (and friends) to make the factory? What is to stop anyone else doing the same?

And, yes, it's tiny compared to the amount needed for full EV. Your entire argument is based about the importance of batteries yet you seem to be failing to grasp the sheer increase in battery capacity needed for cars to be replaced by EV. Banging out one impressive battery factory isn't enough to propel Tesla to a Ford level company. If the factories are needed, other companies will build them and they'll trounce Tesla with their abundant range of advantages.

it;ll take about 5 years to be fully built, nothing stopping them building similar, but they arent.
so you agree they are not currently tiny fry at the moment in cell production?
yes it small compared to whats eventually needed, which is why there plans for around 3-5more more just in the near future. With China plant expected to be announced this year.

 

[b0rn2sk8]

What do you think about battery swapping rather than charging? It seems like a viable solution to me - you drive into a battery station, machinery there removes the battery from your car, replaces it with a fully charged one and puts the other battery on charge. With that solution, the range of an EV becomes almost irrelevant as the battery swap takes a few minutes. From a driver's point of view it would be a like for like replacement for the current system of refueling an ICEV. Recharging the batteries can be done as efficiently as possible rather than as quickly as possible because it's no longer tied to driving.

There are issues (battery capacity in stations, the requirement to standardise batteries) but I think it's something to be considered.

Battery swapping is a dead concept for cars, 95% of charging is done at home or when the car is idle (work, shopping, eating etc) so the actual need for rapid charging for most people would be rare unlike when people get fuel now. Imagine how many filling stations there would be if you had your own at home, hardly any.

The sort of infrastructure that would be needed to support it would be huge and you still need all the rapid chargers to charge the batteries that get taken out of cars, it just wouldn't be financially viable compared to just sticking in the chargers and making people wait for 30 mins rather than 5-10 for a swap.

As you say there would be a need for standard removable batteries which almost certainly mean they will be smaller which will reduce range (same reason why almost all phone and laptop batteries are now shaped to the chassis and non removeable). It also means that basically every car chassis would need to essentially be standardised. Neither is going to happen.

 

[Amp34]

for me I think the sweet spot is 180-200 real world range with supercharging or equivalent.
That allows 2 hours on the motorway and enough leeway to stop at a service station, rather than stopping early at a service station and by then im ready for a small break anyway.
Above that just spending more money on a larger battery that I don't really need.
although i don't waste money on nice cars, so until they are super cheap secondhand, so ill be waiting a while

Well if your other assertions are correct then you’ve probably got another couple of decades before you get an EV. That and EVs won’t become mainstream for a similar length of time.

Actually its well knowen they are making money on the cars a very healthy margin at that, more than most car manufacturers in fact.
However like angrowingin business it makes zero sense to not spend, you build infastructure and that costs a huge amount of money.

who am I going to believe, trucking companies who have actually had hands-on time and put pre orders in, or some random person on the net. Yeah it's not you who dont see to have a clue.

Their aim is to get to a gross profit of 25% on the Model 3, but are they anywhere near that at the moment?

https://evannex.com/blogs/news/tesl...-5x-higher-than-the-average-vehicle-from-ford

To put that in perspective BMWs profit margin is calculated to be around $5000 per car and Fords profit margin on pickups and SUVs is actually around $10-13k (which is why they’re scrapping the low profit cars).

 

[Glaucus]

Their aim is to get to a gross profit of 25% on the Model 3, but are they anywhere near that at the moment?
.

nope, but they are for s and x, the 3 isnt the only car they make. 3 should be profitable next quarter.

 

[Amp34]

it;ll take about 5 years to be fully built, nothing stopping them building similar, but they arent.
so you agree they are not currently tiny fry at the moment in cell production?
yes it small compared to whats eventually needed, which is why there plans for around 3-5more more just in the near future. With China plant expected to be announced this year.

But others are planning and building.

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.cnb...-number-of-lithium-ion-battery-factories.html

VWs $20B worth of batteries aren’t going to come out of thin air. There’s expected to be 300GW by 2021 and 500+ by 2025, that’s not even including Tesla’s expanded plant or their other plants.

Just because they aren’t specifically owned by the manufacturers doesn’t mean they can’t use them.

 

[Glaucus]

But others are planning and building.

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.cnb...-number-of-lithium-ion-battery-factories.html

VWs $20B worth of batteries aren’t going to come out of thin air. There’s expected to be 300GW by 2021 and 500+ by 2025, that’s not even including Tesla’s expanded plant or their other plants.

Just because they aren’t specifically owned by the manufacturers doesn’t mean they can’t use them.

nope, but again 150gwh of that is just teslas that's almost a third of the capcity on its own. Lets assume all go to evs (which it doesn't, all though it will be a significant amount, it all depends how much grid power swallows up as well). Then Tesla is still going to be a massive player in 2025(ignoring any other gigafactorys they build). Then on top of that as I said earlier is the cell cost, which when you get someone else to build it, and spread out in smaller factories, is almost certainly going to cost more. Even if that battery production was split just between 2 other car manufactures they would only just be able to produce slightly more than tesla each(and likely far less due to future gigafactories).

now can you see why battery manufacturing is so important, and why the numbers dont add up. all these cars they say they going to build yet, tesla owns a huge chunk of the cell market, even taking into account future plants.

 

[Jonnycoupe]

who am I going to believe, trucking companies who have actually had hands-on time and put pre orders in, or some random person on the net. Yeah it's not you who dont see to have a clue.

Wow, hypocrisy at its best.

You keep referring to the slow OEMs aswell.. they are simply managing an established business that includes pension funds to maintain.