The Tesla Thread

[Glaucus]

Of course not but say a company like Toyota's financial clout Tesla just cannot compare with. Infact Toyota could just buy Tesla out right now if they wanted to. Once it become a completely viable solution and they put all their resources into it then they will overtake quite easily.

No they can't not every sompnay is up for sale. It's pretty much impossible for them to buy 51% of shares.
Money clout isn't the be all of end all. Not instantly.they still need to build battery factories and they still need to buy things like cobalt.
Something Tesla has been very hot on securing, Tesla are not affected by the recent rise in cobalt as they allready have their supply chain in order.

Yes Toyota could dump billions in, itll still take years to build factories etc. Not that there's any sign of this happening.
They could also dump billions into charging infrastructure, instead you have 4 big companies building a measly 400 stations in the next 2 years, which will be significantly less sthan what Tesla will have in that time frame.

Tesla doesn't need to be the biggest. But they will be big.theyve allready achieved their aim. Other car companies have now realised EVs are the future and governments have realised EVs are viable and thus started legislation rolling towards that end.
Daimler is one of the few properly investing allready, but even they are only planing production for between 15-25% of their fleet to be EVs. Even at 25% that's less than a million EVs a year by 2025, your looking at like 2021 for Tesla to surpass that number and possibly earlier.

 

[vanpeebles]

Are you Elon Musk's mam?

 

[Glaucus]

The usual can't argue the points so essentially post insults.

 

[Phate]

Volvo made 52000 cars last month. Two thirds if that Tesla have made in their first quarter. It is a drop in the ocean and Volvo are a tiny company in comparison to the big boys.

I am failing to see how that is comparable to what I posted?

I was talking about specific Model 3 production at that moment in time. How does that compare to all the cars Volvo made in a month?

 

[Jonnycoupe]

Taking about Volvo size without mentioning are owned by Geely ... Taxi!

Oh Geely own them aswell.

 

[Jonnycoupe]

Securing supply chain does not make them immune to the price change of commodities.

The VAG and BMW wheels on future propulsion options are well and truly turning now. Fascinating times ahead.

 

[Simon]

Tesla market share of BEV in Western Europe went from 19.2% in Q117 to 14.4% Q118. Selling less cars too 6440 to 6280

 

[Firestar_3x]

After spending a good amount of time with a model S over the past few years i've concluded that I'd rather own a car developed by car company rather than a tech company who threw together a car.

Hoepfully it doesn't take a decade for Tesla to learn how to actually build a car which can compete fit & finish wise in todays marketplace.

 

[Amp34]

No they can't not every sompnay is up for sale. It's pretty much impossible for them to buy 51% of shares.
Money clout isn't the be all of end all. Not instantly.they still need to build battery factories and they still need to buy things like cobalt.
Something Tesla has been very hot on securing, Tesla are not affected by the recent rise in cobalt as they allready have their supply chain in order.

Yes Toyota could dump billions in, itll still take years to build factories etc. Not that there's any sign of this happening.
They could also dump billions into charging infrastructure, instead you have 4 big companies building a measly 400 stations in the next 2 years, which will be significantly less sthan what Tesla will have in that time frame.

Tesla doesn't need to be the biggest. But they will be big.theyve allready achieved their aim. Other car companies have now realised EVs are the future and governments have realised EVs are viable and thus started legislation rolling towards that end.
Daimler is one of the few properly investing allready, but even they are only planing production for between 15-25% of their fleet to be EVs. Even at 25% that's less than a million EVs a year by 2025, your looking at like 2021 for Tesla to surpass that number and possibly earlier.

Ford: $11B and 16 fully electric by 2022.
GM: 20 fully electric by 2023.
Volvo: 5 fully electric by 2021 and half of all sales by 2025, with no more ICE vehicles being designed after next years.
Nissan/Infiniti: first EV in 2021 and half of all cars sold electrified by 2025 (although that could also mean hybrid).

That’s just a few.
Tesla certainly have a lead at the moment with three higher end electric cars, but the big (and smaller) boys are spending big over the next few years and don’t intend to be left behind. That’s not to say Tesla won’t be around in future, but I think, for the forseable future, they’re going to stay as the Volvo/Aston/Porsche level rather than compete with the likes of Daimler/Ford/GM.

 

[Mr Jack]

Volvo: 5 fully electric by 2021 and half of all sales by 2025, with no more ICE vehicles being designed after next years.

No more pure ICE cars, I believe.

Tesla have a good ground, but it's in a tiny market. Pure EV isn't going to be a big chunk of car sales for at least a decade; hybrid, on the other hand, is likely to explode over the next 5 years. And, yes, other companies will have to play catch up on areas like batteries and these will take time. But they have time. ICE is still selling well; and hybrid is going be the big seller in the next decade. That gives them time to start ramping up everything else.

 

[Glaucus]

No more pure ICE cars, I believe.
.

you know these are essentially pointless 48v hybrids. To put that in perspective that's only what my ebike is powered by. Tesla is 400v and porsche is 800v for their pure evs.
But nice to see their BS marketing works.

yes lots of talk, but not much money and actual factories.

 

[Amp34]

No more pure ICE cars, I believe.

Tesla have a good ground, but it's in a tiny market. Pure EV isn't going to be a big chunk of car sales for at least a decade; hybrid, on the other hand, is likely to explode over the next 5 years. And, yes, other companies will have to play catch up on areas like batteries and these will take time. But they have time. ICE is still selling well; and hybrid is going be the big seller in the next decade. That gives them time to start ramping up everything else.

The problem with hybrids is they have very few of the benefits, but more negatives than EVs. Great, you'll save 10% on your fuel bill (unless you get a PHEV and only use it for short journeys), but the vehicle itself costs significantly more than the saving and you have the complexities of both an ICE and EV engine for maintenance (so still need those oil changes, etc etc).

Honestly I’m hoping most will skip hybrids and go straight to EV. It sounds like several companies are wagering that too, with Volvo expecting half of their sales to be pure EV as already mentioned.

That’s not to say hybrids won’t have their place. For those that need long range regularly or live in remote/inhospitable locations they may well be the go to during the transition period, but for the average person they really aren’t the economical option.

@Glaucus Factories? They already have them. Unlike Tesla who need to buy or build manufacturing plants the established players already have them. It doesn’t take long to retool an existing manufacturing plant. The biggest cost for them is R&D, and they’re already spending significant sums, with most manufacturers having a couple of EVs coming rumoured/announced in the next year or two. The big issue, as you say, is the batteries, there’s a huge scramble for these at the moment.

 

[Mr Jack]

The problem with hybrids is they have very few of the benefits, but more negatives than EVs. Great, you'll save 10% on your fuel bill (unless you get a PHEV and only use it for short journeys), but the vehicle itself costs significantly more than the saving and you have the complexities of both an ICE and EV engine for maintenance (so still need those oil changes, etc etc).

Almost all new hybrids are PHEVs; and the vast majority of journeys people make are short. So PHEV+Short-Journey isn't that much of a big deal. The quoted figures are monkey balls, of course, but remember that Japan - which backed Hybrid - achieved better CO2 savings than Europe that backed Diesel.

 

[Glaucus]

@Glaucus Factories? They already have them. Unlike Tesla who need to buy or build manufacturing plants the established players already have them. It doesn’t take long to retool an existing manufacturing plant. The biggest cost for them is R&D, and they’re already spending significant sums, with most manufacturers having a couple of EVs coming rumoured/announced in the next year or two. The big issue, as you say, is the batteries, there’s a huge scramble for these at the moment.

Who siad anything about car factories, they are missing battery factories. Again there is not enough battery supply for all these cars, that's why Daimler has allready broken ground on a battery factory.
Again if you think traditional car companies can just rejig their factories to mass produce EVs you are mistaken.
Again Tesla have the giga factory and are planning more, they've allready secured years worth of colbolt and have some sort of deal in place (as do apple) .
Just look at how much they are losing on the bolt, 9k per car, all due to battery supply.

 

[Amp34]

Almost all new hybrids are PHEVs; and the vast majority of journeys people make are short. So PHEV+Short-Journey isn't that much of a big deal. The quoted figures are monkey balls, of course, but remember that Japan - which backed Hybrid - achieved better CO2 savings than Europe that backed Diesel.

Unfortunately the extra few mpg (and that’s realistically all it is in real world usage) is not economically worth the markup from a standard ICE to a PHEV, which is the issue. Are you willing to spend an extra £10k up front to save a couple of hundred a year in fuel?

EV has a good chance of getting significantly cheaper than ICE (largely dependent on battery prices), but hybrid will always have the issue of requiring R&D and upkeep of two separate systems.

The only way they are remotely economical at the moment is in extreme use cases (having a big vehicle and only very short commute for example) and through government subsidies, which won’t continue forever.

 

[Jonnycoupe]

you know these are essentially pointless 48v hybrids. To put that in perspective that's only what my ebike is powered by. Tesla is 400v and porsche is 800v for their pure evs.
But nice to see their BS marketing works.

yes lots of talk, but not much money and actual factories.

Yeah okay m8.

 

[Jonnycoupe]

Unfortunately the extra few mpg (and that’s realistically all it is in real world usage) is not economically worth the markup from a standard ICE to a PHEV, which is the issue. Are you willing to spend an extra £10k up front to save a couple of hundred a year in fuel?
.

No. PHEV offers people many use cases where the engine doesn’t start, particularly beneficial for short trips instead of using stone cold engines.

Look at something like the P400e Range Rover sports as a good example.

48V system will move to the higher power 22kW with crank ISG rather than belt integrated starter motors that’s when we’ll start to see and offer even more content. Whether sailing, active roll control, e booster turbos or even steer by wire systems.

 

[Amp34]

Who siad anything about car factories, they are missing battery factories. Again there is not enough battery supply for all these cars, that's why Daimler has allready broken ground on a battery factory.
Again if you think traditional car companies can just rejig their factories to mass produce EVs you are mistaken.
Again Tesla have the giga factory and are planning more, they've allready secured years worth of colbolt and have some sort of deal in place (as do apple) .
Just look at how much they are losing on the bolt, 9k per car, all due to battery supply.

Why do you think there’s a requirement for the car manufacturers to physically build their own battery plants? They get much of what they put in their vehicles from third party suppliers already, batteries are just one more part of that. Yes, GM and tesla have their own battery factories, but whether other manufacturers physically build and run their own is another matter.

The number of battery factories being built and in the works is astronomical. By 2021 there will be almost three times the number of batteries being produced to than now. Is likely most manufacturers will contract their battery manufacture to those companies, just as Apple and electronics manufacturers do now.

The lead times are a bit long, and Tesla are definitely ahead of the curve with their own factory (or more precisely the Tesla/Panasonic JV that is the gigafactory), but give it three years and it’s likely the battery issue many other manufacturers are currently having will be significantly reduced.

 

[Simon]

I’d be more worried about the lithium mines than the factories !

 

[Glaucus]

Why do you think there’s a requirement for the car manufacturers to physically build their own battery plants? They get much of what they put in their vehicles from third party suppliers already, batteries are just one more part of that. Yes, GM and tesla have their own battery factories, but whether other manufacturers physically build and run their own is another matter.

The number of battery factories being built and in the works is astronomical. By 2021 there will be almost three times the number of batteries being produced to than now. Is likely most manufacturers will contract their battery manufacture to those companies, just as Apple and electronics manufacturers do now.

The lead times are a bit long, and Tesla are definitely ahead of the curve with their own factory (or more precisely the Tesla/Panasonic JV that is the gigafactory), but give it three years and it’s likely the battery issue many other manufacturers are currently having will be significantly reduced.

Mainly cost, there's a reason Tesla can be profitable and it's verticle integration of battery supply. It's also why their batteries are far cheaper than the competition.
Secondly they don't and although the big battery manufactures are building more plants this still isn't enough.
The numbers don't add up. To many cars not enough GW.