I think once companies like Amazon, Tesla, Google, Microsoft, Apple etc stop spending so much money on AI we can see a slight pull back.
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- Thread starter mcast123
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Why would they stop if it's going to take jobs?
It certainly feels like a bubble.. But it may not be.
They will stop/slow down if they don't see a return on investment. But Nvidia is expected to hit 5 trillion market cap unless there is competition in GPUs
Not strictly market related but is anyone here utilising a VCT? (Venture Capital Trust).
I see them a mechanism to reduce tax liability based on the 30% relief at source, similarly to pensions. CGT doesn't apply and dividends are tax-free.
After 5 years it can then be sold. Effective tax rate would only be 10-15%.
(Used in addition to salary sacrifice, SIPP, ISA and CGT allowances.)
I see them a mechanism to reduce tax liability based on the 30% relief at source, similarly to pensions. CGT doesn't apply and dividends are tax-free.
After 5 years it can then be sold. Effective tax rate would only be 10-15%.
(Used in addition to salary sacrifice, SIPP, ISA and CGT allowances.)
Soldato
I know people who have used them and one or two people that runs/work for them... This girl i know is married to a chap who's venture capitial company specialises in space, too rich for my blood...
it's another investment vehicle, but I would only consider it after a maxed out all other options.. and if that was the situ; I would be doing very well for myself, enough to take the gamble which I believe VCTs are.
From what I’m hearing, companies are finding it very difficult to monetise AI right now. As you say, there’s very little in the way of return on investment for the moment at least.
Nvidia is another story though, providing the hardware to train these models is something else entirely.
Generative AI is a bubble for sure, but like the internet itself, I expect it will be a bubble created by the hype that surrounds a legitimately revolutionary technology. This bubble will burst and we’ll be left with a few companies that have substance and AI will go on to be a significant part of our future.
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Soldato
It's the same as the internet when that was first main streamed.... the big players at the time are no where to be seen now. Cisco made bank at the time as they was the 'tool makers" like how nvidna are now.
AI in the future will not like it is today, god knows how many years it will take to mature and be part of everyday life.
Unwinding of undervaluation can/will take many years its not going to be an overnight thing. Meanwhile these cheap UK companies are being hoovered up by private equity like theres no tomorrow.
AI is a genuinely transformative technology, it definitely has long term legs. Not like all the BS and hype around crypto which never had any value beyond a few niche use cases and a lot of grifters.
It would be a brave investor that stayed away from the big players, Microsoft, Google, etc.
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It can go a lot higher if it really pushes into a proper bubble and euphoria takes over.
Soldato
I've said before, I'm very heavily into the S & P500, and have been for some time. I'm loving this, but also watching it like a hawk.
It's not the big players that are at risk, although they will inevitably take a temporary hit when the AI bubble corrects.
It's the 1000's upon 1000's of tiny supposed AI startups that have been thrown a gargantuan amount of money by VC's over the last 12-18 months, to not really do an awful lot more than piggyback on the foundational work of the big boys.
It might have a fair way to go yet, but at some point, where there are profits, the profit taking will start; I have no idea what will do it, but something will trigger a bit of panic, and that's when the companies built on flimsy foundations will see their investors pull out and the cycle moves into it's final phase.
All just my opinion of course, but I think this bubble is just like the internet. A genuinely transformative technology that is obviously here to stay, but like the internet has had cash thrown at it in a shotgun approach while people work out how to monetise it effectively, meaning that the number of misses will be substantial.
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I'm mostly in S&P too (ESG screened). Also quite heavily into psychadaelic biotech stuff, which sadly took a hit recently because an expected FDA greenlight for MDMA therapy was a no due to a shambolic botched trial, despite the outcomes being very good. Was always going to be a few years before they come good.I've said before, I'm very heavily into the S & P500, and have been for some time. I'm loving this, but also watching it like a hawk.
For sure. Exactly what's happening in the games industry atm, loads of VC money poured in during covid and has now dried up when everyone realised that making profitable games is really hard.
I wish it'd slow down, I need more time to stuff piles of money in!I've said before, I'm very heavily into the S & P500, and have been for some time. I'm loving this, but also watching it like a hawk.
I'm still hoping for a boom once the FED starts cutting rates and other stocks that have been mostly flat lift the market up some more.
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Why do you think that? Businesses can borrow more cheaply surely and as long as the cuts are due to inflation being under control that’s not a bad thing?When they cut will be the start of the crash
I’m not an economist and have a long time frame so either way I’ll go with the flow with index funds. Time in the market and all that.
It does feel a bit overheated with the magnificent 7 but I’ve got some powder dry that I could divert if an opportunity arises.
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Well usually fed cuts are followed by large falls in stock markets. Honestly though how much better can it get, the markets have already pumped up 40% in 2 years.Why do you think that? Businesses can borrow more cheaply surely and as long as the cuts are due to inflation being under control that’s not a bad thing?
I’m not an economist and have a long time frame so either way I’ll go with the flow with index funds. Time in the market and all that.
It does feel a bit overheated with the magnificent 7 but I’ve got some powder dry that I could divert if an opportunity arises.
Soldato
Well, hopefully another 40% over the next two years, but who knows!
It was all pretty flat for several months last year IIRC.
I had some money in a fund last year that didn’t have nvidia and a few of the other big players and it was absolute crap for performance. That’s why I wonder if there’s still a bit of catching up to do.Well, hopefully another 40% over the next two years, but who knows!
It was all pretty flat for several months last year IIRC.
I really shouldn’t look at this stuff aside from a periodic assessment but then I’m an idiot
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