Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)
- Thread starter mcast123
- Start date
Wasn't so long ago people were saying the interest rate could go higher and what would you do if it 8%.
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No way. There's no way 8pc would be needed here. Even 5pc is crippling.
There's so much debt (personal and corporate and national) 8pc is just not necessary.
I'm betting if this is the start of a crash.. Or even a bubble bursting. Rates could come down much faster than expected.
But yeah there was talk of 8pc. Just showed how hard it is to predict.
I'm a tad annoyed I didnt see this coming. I've seen reluctance for clients to move to cloud. And multiple instances of azure going down. Only last week I was chatting about "is the cloud really the future? Providers can basically charge what they want. How can you escape if you become fully embedded? And theres too much down time"
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Soldato
- Joined
- 13 Sep 2005
- Posts
- 4,345
Global all cap index down about 2% on last week. Meh, index and chill.
Soldato
Shows how vulnerable things like the S&P 500 are though, big rewards but also big losses when just a few companies have such impact. It all works out in the end though, as long as you don't need the money any time soon...
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Nobody know how long this downturn is going to last. FED are not going to be cutting rates till mid Sep, even then its takes a very long for it to work its way into the system.
I have some invested in my SIPP, not much, but I've held that for a few years now. If I sold I'd put it into a cash savings account. At least you're guaranteed to make ~4% on it.
Soldato
Problem with cash is that you'll never get a real acceleration trajectory going on.
Stocks on average returning 8-9% per year are capable of compounding on themselves much more effectively than cash is.
Cash is safer but over history even including the crashes like 2008 and the dotcom bubble, it's still under performed stocks by quite a bit.
But you'd be crystalising a loss of say 3-4% on the sale, then waiting a year in cash to get it back to even....
Then when do you invest it again??
Assuming your more than say 3-5 years from retirement, leave it well alone in your pension.
Time in the markets, is better than timing the markets
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Man of Honour
- Joined
- 21 Nov 2004
- Posts
- 46,006
The 5 year I was about to go for doesn’t seem like a great idea.
Soldato
I don't think it's worth messing around with already invested pension funds tbh, no one can really guess where things are going, I'm just leaving mine alone and it should eventually go up again. Especially if not near to retirement.
Meanwhile each month that my workplace pension adds more, it's cheaper than my average.
Meanwhile each month that my workplace pension adds more, it's cheaper than my average.
One thing though, is that you get the interest monthly or annually.
With stocks you only actually make money when you decide to sell (apart from dividends)..
Soldato
Will be interesting to see if bonds ride to the rescue this time. 
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Soldato
Right but you can annualise things, and 4-5% interest has to first beat inflation which is usually 2% but could be higher, and then you are left compounding the rest. It's why you have AER measurements for interest.
With a well invested index fund thing you can turn £100K into £1M with enough time via the magic of compounding gains.
With cash I don't think you can, you'll just slowly gain more cash but not in a way which will change your life or set you up for retirement.
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Soldato
With the current crash it looks like I'm back to where I was in May. Disaster!
Anyway...
Anyway...
Soldato
I think that’s possible. Consumer demand is getting weak and jobless rates are up so most countries will be looking to cut and accelerate the cuts a bit.
It was all feeling way too overheated and I'm glad this will give me more time to pump extra cash in at a lower price point!With the current crash it looks like I'm back to where I was in May. Disaster!
Anyway...
It's all noise in the long term.
Caporegime
I love this system. One day someone decides it's not worth it and then everything comes crashing down.
It's utterly bizarre really.
I've got 300k krona to lose before I'm back to square one this year....
Hold my beer.....
The dumb **** is it'll probably be back by end of the year
It's utterly bizarre really.
I've got 300k krona to lose before I'm back to square one this year....
Hold my beer.....
The dumb **** is it'll probably be back by end of the year
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Soldato
Yeah what are we even doing. Maybe coke and hookers really is the better long term strategy.
Obviously I've seen this before but I've not b been so invested (lol). So the amounts hurt a tad more than before.
In hindsight (I know) it would have been better to have put everything into a cash isa. I'm down on the year.
All that time researching stocks. It's a waste of time. Would have been better to hold cash and wait for a crash. Then pile in. It's actually what I used to do when I only had a few K after buying the house. After covid first hit I bought all I could.
Obviously this is hindsight and overall it's better to keep investing.
But this has been a painful lesson in single stock investing. Especially tech. Which I'm guessing many many people are also in. Especially PIs.
You guys did say!
Can't believe aviva is probably one of my better shares this year.
In hindsight (I know) it would have been better to have put everything into a cash isa. I'm down on the year.
All that time researching stocks. It's a waste of time. Would have been better to hold cash and wait for a crash. Then pile in. It's actually what I used to do when I only had a few K after buying the house. After covid first hit I bought all I could.
Obviously this is hindsight and overall it's better to keep investing.
But this has been a painful lesson in single stock investing. Especially tech. Which I'm guessing many many people are also in. Especially PIs.
You guys did say!
Can't believe aviva is probably one of my better shares this year.
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