Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)

sigma · 20 Aug 2011 at 12:50

Yeah ~15p it seems.

Still, better than having £ in the bank!

jmhduck · 20 Aug 2011 at 13:17

Aviva has a decent div yield was looking at them, but they seem to be getting hit by the market turmoil at the moment.

Ricochet J · 20 Aug 2011 at 13:19

Lol @ RBS

silversurfer · 20 Aug 2011 at 13:23

Simon said:
Rumours of a counter bid too though.

Did you have much in them ?

HPQ are paying 50 times earnings for AU apparently so another bid seems unlikely. I own both companies through a tech tracker fund

Unfortunately as HPQ is (was) ten times the size of AU I actually lost money.

HPQ lost 20% because the market doesnt like what they are doing right now. AU went up 72% but in comparison that is a gain of 7.2% which means I lose 12.8% overall from the exchange ! :eek:

Ive not got much clue about shares, but iv got say 5k to play with.

Now is Barclays not worth buying up at 1.50? I mean they are quite a decent company and surely news like them lending 8.3bn to HP for their takeover is a good sign?

Lending money, depends on the terms. The HP deal Im not sure is a good one, what are they upto

You can avoid the mistake I made and not invest all at once. It would not appear we are at the top of the market here but you will learn more by investing more then once.
The lottery ticket approach is a typical private investor fail

Try halifax sharebuilder and invest your money equally either monthly or weekly even. You do far better if you pace yourself and set yourself limits.

Barclays itself, I would say no. Basically its attraction is as a high street brand name.
This makes you feel familiar with the company, unless you're an accountant then this is false. 'The price fell a lot' Not a good reason to invest

Split your money and do whatever you like, learn first hand. The above are mistakes I made and pretty much everyone does

Barclays operates in the Lehmans building, they bought up and operate everyday the same business Lehmans did. How do we know they wont just die on their feet like Lehmans did, if governments can fail anyone can get pulled down with them.
If the price is low its because its super risky, I cant recognise it as a 'bargain'

Another guy points out shares have fallen way more then actual oil prices justify - http://www.iii.co.uk/tv/episode/aim-oil-and-gas-firms-set-strong-end-2011

If we are talking dividends, Santander has a yield over 7%
I think that means in ten years you will get all your money back via dividends, you dont have to care what the share price does so long as they can afford to keep the yield up.

This is a way better approach to looking at companies. Share prices are about as sensible as a bull run, its chaotic.
Work out the profit margins, cashflow and yield cover and its a totally sensible way to investing

EMED -14.29%
RMP -23.97%
CAZA -25.84%
SKR -33.33%
RBS -41.24%

These were my August stock picks on the stockchallenge game :eek:

Averaged loss is -27%
My actual real actions this month was mostly to double BP at the start of the month, another fail but not quite so bad. Lost about -14%

RBS 20p area I do remember it originally languished here after its rapid recovery from 10p. I last held them in main at 42p so could rebuy I guess

Barc I think was about 50 to 130 area before it hesitated and lloyds is impossible to say.

sigma · 20 Aug 2011 at 13:59

If/when we do go into recession/depression, the markets will be able to recover won't they? It's just going to take some time. Many economists seem to say that the current prices don't reflect values of some businesses and that they are factoring in a recession in the future. Many businesses have bulked up their balance sheets so they are in a better position than they were in 2008.

I guess a big deal is if the dollar collapses or just how weak it becomes?

It all seems rather confusing in macro terms.

What are people's thoughts? Can people elaborate rather than just say FTSE will be at 3000 within 18 months.

Fox - you seem to know your stuff yet you're pretty quiet in this thread?

Judgeneo · 20 Aug 2011 at 14:38

sigma said:
If/when we do go into recession/depression, the markets will be able to recover won't they? It's just going to take some time. Many economists seem to say that the current prices don't reflect values of some businesses and that they are factoring in a recession in the future. Many businesses have bulked up their balance sheets so they are in a better position than they were in 2008.

I guess a big deal is if the dollar collapses or just how weak it becomes?

It all seems rather confusing in macro terms.

What are people's thoughts? Can people elaborate rather than just say FTSE will be at 3000 within 18 months.

Fox - you seem to know your stuff yet you're pretty quiet in this thread?

IMO the fear remains mostly with Europe still, unless the European debt becomes under control, we will see another recession, and of course, recession means less profit so the low stock value is speculative of this.

The banks are falling more than other companies due to their high exposure to the debt crisis, so they will loose far more money than the likes of other companies. The other big problem in the banking sector at the moment is Basel III. As it stands it can't be properly implemented in the US due to laws recently passed about rating agencies, and the EU has decided to interpret its regulation in a different way, so its possible that we will have a different regulation system in Europe, US and Asia, which is not good for stability.

How far the FTSE falls depends primarily on how, and how soon Germany (and France to a lesser extent) deal with the debt problem. Sort it out quickly and stocks will rebound nicely, but let it drag on and we're in for a whole world of hurt.

Eddietop · 20 Aug 2011 at 14:43

Aviva is looking tempting, 8% dividend yield and trading at about 6 p/e. Think the falls have been overdone, but I could still see it falling further in current madness.

Kobi · 20 Aug 2011 at 14:55

Need a wee bit of advice guys. I've not long started trading and i'm needing advice on accounts. I've currently got an isa with a £10k max per year. So far(after researching) i've put money in RRL for a long term investment. After researching more and more i'd say i've got about 4 or 5 other long term investments lined up. The last thing i wanna do it pile money into these and find in X amount of years they are all worth near enough £10k each and then have the dilemma of not being able to cash them all in and end up losing a lot of money. True these companies might not get near £10k each but either way, even £2k+ would be putting me over the limit. So would you advise making a proper traders account for my long term investments? I obviously know i'll have to pay tax on all profit, but i think it'll be better in the long term.

silversurfer · 20 Aug 2011 at 15:03

?

Is there any limit like that? You can put in 10k a year.
You seem to be saying theres a problem if the company grows, all growth is tax free and without limit. I thought that was the whole point

jmhduck · 20 Aug 2011 at 15:15

Eddietop said:
Aviva is looking tempting, 8% dividend yield and trading at about 6 p/e. Think the falls have been overdone, but I could still see it falling further in current madness.

I thought Aviva looked tempting even at 400p although things are rather "interesting" now...

gord · 20 Aug 2011 at 15:27

Simon said:
Did you have much in them ?

20% of my portfolio is in them. Intrigued to see what happens on Monday now.

Kobi · 20 Aug 2011 at 15:29

silversurfer said:
?

Is there any limit like that? You can put in 10k a year.
You seem to be saying theres a problem if the company grows, all growth is tax free and without limit. I thought that was the whole point

What im saying is, in so many years time when all my stock is worth a lot more, i wont be able to sell them all because they will be worth more than £10k. meaning i'll have to hold onto some longer, which by then could mean the prices have fallen. I've got an RBS stocks and shares isa.

silversurfer · 20 Aug 2011 at 15:37

Im not an expert on ISA. If you buy range resources for 5p and sell it for 100p and that means your ISA is worth 200,000 pounds and you decide to withdraw it all at once then its tough titties to the taxman afaik
Where have you read different

At least this was precision bombs I guess. I was thinkign airplanes and carpet bombing

Kobi · 20 Aug 2011 at 15:43

For the 2011/2012 tax year you can choose to invest up to £10,680 in a Stocks and Shares ISA, or invest up to £5,340 in a Cash ISA and put up to the remainder of the subscription limit in a Stocks and Shares ISA, like a Direct Trader Self-Select ISA

....or am i being an idiot and totally reading this wrong. I'll go make a coffee.

uniQ · 20 Aug 2011 at 15:49

Shares need to pay Capital Gains Tax. But ISA's and the securities within are exempt from CGT.

silversurfer · 20 Aug 2011 at 16:01

I use a SIPP but yea you are reading that wrong imo. 10k in limit and as much as you like sideways or out

CGT dont apply to ISA gains. That is the main benefit. SIPP I dont pay tax either, its my pension.

Ditto Spreadbets no stamp duty, no cgt and income tax.

CFD or contract for difference are taxable but no stamp duty

Theres other stuff like covered warrants and structured products also skip taxes I believe. CGT might apply but thats 10k free per year

Currently thinking of HYC BLT and XEL on monday

XEL reason being SKR is troubled by their financing from share issuing. XEL has taken the opposite tactic of trying to secure proper funding via conventional loan/bond issuance
Secured legitimate estimates on current discoveries and will raise long term funds that way. Markets reaction was to punish and dissolve the share price. So I think its unpopular and a justified buy

DarrenM343 · 20 Aug 2011 at 16:11

jmhduck said:
Aviva has a decent div yield was looking at them, but they seem to be getting hit by the market turmoil at the moment.

Do you not see that as a positive rather than a negative?. I mean if it's a good company with good balance sheet and it's being hit hard by the market, maybe that's a good buy signal rather than worrying about it being hit by the market turmoil at the moment so too afraid to buy. Sometimes when shares are hit hard for maybe the wrong reason, sometimes they bounce back so quickly you can still end up missing out on the purchase at a good price. So you may want to buy while the company is being hit hard by the market.

All imo of course

jmhduck · 20 Aug 2011 at 16:30

DarrenM343 said:
Do you not see that as a positive rather than a negative?. I mean if it's a good company with good balance sheet and it's being hit hard by the market, maybe that's a good buy signal rather than worrying about it being hit by the market turmoil at the moment so too afraid to buy. Sometimes when shares are hit hard for maybe the wrong reason, sometimes they bounce back so quickly you can still end up missing out on the purchase at a good price. So you may want to buy while the company is being hit hard by the market.

All imo of course

Possibly, I do have some target pricing that I would consider buying at... I thought they were a good buy at 380 though and I'm glad I didn't buy at that price at the moment!

sigma · 20 Aug 2011 at 16:58

DarrenM343 said:
Do you not see that as a positive rather than a negative?. I mean if it's a good company with good balance sheet and it's being hit hard by the market, maybe that's a good buy signal rather than worrying about it being hit by the market turmoil at the moment so too afraid to buy. Sometimes when shares are hit hard for maybe the wrong reason, sometimes they bounce back so quickly you can still end up missing out on the purchase at a good price. So you may want to buy while the company is being hit hard by the market.

All imo of course

I do agree. However a global 'slowdown' might mean that the bounce back may not be any time soon and it may not be as sharp as we'd like. Obviously this isn't too big a deal to a long-term investor though!

I missed out in '08 so trying to play my card right this time.

Quite a few investors/economists are saying that it is a good time to buy if you are willing to (or can afford to) take the 'risk'.

silversurfer · 20 Aug 2011 at 17:26

I say scale in and buy a few times because so long as you like the company it should be ok at any rough price around here.
Just decide if you are sure about their prospects improving or not, its possible to hesitate forever.

I literately had my finger on the buy button for Fresnillo at 550p in 2009 but it was volatile and I waited and its tripled

Adding ATK to my monday list also. Blue marks large volume and possible support area, like hurdles a volatile market can just go right through but it should be harder

Declining volume in a negative market is a double negative ie. hidden positive

Investopedia chart explanations -
On Balance Volume
Price By Volume Chart