Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)

Simon · 23 Sep 2011 at 20:25

Silver is right down at $30 and golds hit $1640.

Copper too, why the big crash?

These look really low, are they going to bounce on Monday?

silversurfer · 24 Sep 2011 at 15:00

Long term case is still intact but I think the drop is exaggerated by recent FED moves.

They will sell 400bn of short dated bonds. So this will raise the yield on yearly deposits.

The reverse of QE is just this, selling what you buy. Neutralising the printed money idea. But they arent doing this, thats why I say its temporary

However they are this moment getting rid of the short dated treasuries. Gold gives a yield of zero, you get nothing so it should compare badly to anything at all that is profitable.
The price fell for 20 years on this reasoning

The FED action adjusts just this year the cost of money to be more expensive making gold worth less

Thats my theory or someone said they raised margin costs, that'd be the simple answer

Treasuries have gigantic influence. If I said you may add the value of your house to your credit card limit, that'd be roughly similar. Banks can borrow against 100% of treasury value deposited I believe

Also AAA debt can be used as Tier 1 capital, so they can lend out 10x its value I think thats how that works

Copper gold and silver are all used as money to some extent. So like an exchange rate it varies. Copper is used in China construction firms as a form of capital between firms apparently. Gold is used in Vietnam during housing contract swaps. Both countries have high inflation making alternatives more attractive

Silver fell 15% on friday meaning HOC might see 400 again.
The stocks rose on Friday like I thought might be possible but I was wrong on metals so Ive bought that gold fund too early

But I wonder if all the gold/silver bugs will see it as the start of the bubble popping and unload.

No because the system hasnt changed. Events bought the price down but everything bullish must periodically reset on its path up, a market that moves in one direction only is in trouble

I dont believe we are in a bubble burst situation, Im not a bug

.
QE needs to be reversed but USA has neither the money, the trade (like Japan) or the government will to strengthen their money and weak money means gold price will settle and rise again

History shows why gold fell from its last peak. See Volcker, Hunt brothers and 15% rates, none are forthcoming today

http://i.imgur.com/zY9c7.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/Heabr.png

mr tommo · 26 Sep 2011 at 13:41

What are peoples thoughts on RKH at the moment?

Currently in RRL and waiting for that to bounce back into life with the imminent Georgia TD. Been looking for some other companies to invest, seen XTR, SOU, SOLO tipped numerous times but not had chance to research them. Got a bit to invest and would like to get in now while the market is suffering.

Anyone got any companies I can research further?

silversurfer · 26 Sep 2011 at 15:04

I think RRL is reaching a good average point where it might rise. In line with 2010 and 2009, if it were to tease as it did last summer then 8p is possible within that scenario.
Disappointing they'd lose this years gains but could be worse and might be better soon.
They diversified a little more I saw, I like that though I cant say I know it was a good value purchase they made

VGM I think went down with gold price, 25% lost or more just like that. Its a producer, lower risk then many perceive imo

ABG is another still down today, glad I sold them for a tiny profit when I could
CNR at 6p worth a look
Nice buoyancy on HOIL and GKP Ive ordered at 131p
HOC not so bad as FRES today which is lucky even while its bad, silver price is incredibly awful performance. It'll recover one day

Read the thread for ideas and maybe the iii forums. Anything posted here in the last 12 months is cheap now

Market is performing a bounce possibly before falling even harder unfortunately. Euro Dollar exchange rate might need to fall to 1.325 before we get any proper relief

Research POG if you like, they nearly made the FTSE 100 at one point. Not super risky, cheap and unpopular and lots of history. Also read Questor

mr tommo · 26 Sep 2011 at 16:51

Thanks for that informative post. Will give me plenty of reading for tonight. Always try to take any tips on III with a pinch of salt unless its a user I'm aware of.

I was tipped to buy GKP on Monday at 148p if I remember correctly and have been waiting to see if it will drop further in this market. What are you thoughts on where that ones heading?

I must say that RRLs Trinidad deal with them owning 100% now does sound like quite a good deal with 21 shallow wells to be drilled between now and Christmas (currently released results of just one well but this slow release.ofninfo is apparently a delay with whoever is signing off the results so basically out of ranges hands) along with one of the deeper Herreras which is supposed to the jewel in the crown. I'm not holding out much hope with this Georgia first drill, seems to be some backtracking on whether or not they were expecting gas on the way down. Think RMP who have a stake in georgia said that they were expecting gas on the way down, however this seems to have been taken back now.

silversurfer · 27 Sep 2011 at 20:27

Take everything with a bag of salt tbh
I wouldnt rely on pre drill talk exactly. Gas in an oil drill raises dangers surely.
It is mostly just an indication of sentiment, when all people seriously dislike something try to consider the opposite. Thats why people beat computers, the ability to empathise and contrast

http://www.proactiveinvestors.com.a...llion-stake-in-tangiers-petroleum--19231.html

130 for Gulf would get me interested. Im over invested so apart from really terribly low prices I probably wont buy. VGM EMED and RRL are all a bit too low or exaggerated in their negatives and GKP is middle of its range probably

Few things might boom a bit tomorrow, Iam wondering how long it holds. I dont exactly know what news is scheduled to make it go pop

why the big crash?

This view is slightly less depressing: The correct perspective to have is, this year has got gold shining - correct even now

If we get 0% YTD then maybe

is allowed
Oh and they put margins up!

silver had the biggest three-day drop since 1980 in London.

Tank slapper moves

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...suries-13-times-per-month-sell-six-times.html

NT would say this was a Tea and Toast day, I felt it was a sell but maybe Im learning something as I only offloaded small bit of BP.
Apparently we wait for Euro bailout rumours, seems its roughly warming cockles of the market

September 27, 5:17pm
FTSE 100 in biggest daily gain since 2010
London's riskier stocks rose fast on Tuesday on renewed hope that the political response to the Greek debt crisis would be enough to prevent its effects spreading.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2dca59ba-e8d3-11e0-ac9c-00144feab49a.html

Simon · 27 Sep 2011 at 20:39

Made a nice £200 on RIO £1/point today.

silversurfer · 28 Sep 2011 at 14:48

That is good, I had support drawn around there but can never tell for sure what will hold. I suggest keeping half of any profit as a slush fund for futures losses.
It gapped up so I would not have bought yesterday just out of hesitation

Just buying some RRL, looking at the terrible reversal that Caza had and wondering if 10 is ok or not. Was the news that bad just not that good maybe

Probably will close out my Santander trade as a way to take some profits from this wonder cure bailout aka political snakeoil

Evil Knievil said:
21st September 2011

The chart instruction came through latish yesterday evening and, slavishly, I followed it even though it was equivocal to a degree. I closed my silver short and, this morning, bought back Fresnillo (fres).

However, having helped myself to yet more Gulf Keystone (gkp) in the placing at 140p I had to reflect that the rise to 160p is quite an advance on so large a placing and I sold 200,000 odd this morning – too early it seems (but I cannot own all the stock) – for the story is well and truly intact.

Elsewhere, I learn that Trinity Mirror (tni) have increased their advertising rates by 50% for the red tops. This is a measure of the huge success they must be achieving. So I bought more at 41.5p this morning.

Risk Warning: The value of investments can go down as well as up. Investing in equities can lose you part or all of your capital. Smaller company shares can be relatively illiquid and thus hard to trade. And that makes such investments more of a high risk than larger company shares. Financial spread betting is high risk activity, losses from which are potentially unlimited. UK-Analyst.com is owned by t1ps.com Ltd which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority and can be contacted at Third Floor, 3 London Wall Buildings, London EC2M 5SY.
23rd September 2011

I have made money through this turmoil but I have gravely mishandled matters. I have kissed goodbye to at least £300,000 of profit which were all set up as mine and ready to harvest.

Anyway, amongst other blunders, I went long gold at $1,802 and have been caned (but I have not yet closed). And the silver short which should have made me a swift £100,000+ was closed far too early. Is there no end to the consequences of my incontinence? (It is not all bad – the copper short is now well into six figures profit.)

Incidentally, the charting voice tells me that it is correct to be short oil. But but but….

Today’s task is to win the Tote Jackpot at Newmarket. This is intellectually very complicated since the skill lies in accepting that Joe Public, laying out perhaps £50 or £100 a time, inevitably overemphasises favourites. Here the professional has to accept that favourites will win but weight his plan to relatively longer shots. This requires discipline and thought. I have laid out £15,000+.

However, it is rare that £1.3 million rolls over to a new pool, which is winnable and will contain about £2.5 million. This rollover means that, very roughly, perhaps as much as 30% of one’s stakes today are paid for by the losing jackpotters from previous days.

Yours sincerely,

Evil’s Idiot Diarist

Operational Highlights

· Caza increases its net, daily production by approximately 88% over Second Quarter rates from 199 boe/d to approximately 374 boe/d;

· Caza Elkins 3401 and 3402 wells producing combined, gross rates of 219 bbl/d of oil and 356 Mcf/d of natural gas;

· O.B. Ranch #1 and #2 wells producing combined, gross rates of 34 bbl/d of condensate and 661 Mcf/d of natural gas;

· Caza 158 #1, 158 #2, 158 #3 and 162 #1 wells producing combined, gross rates of 80 bbl/d of oil and 151 Mcf/d of natural gas;

· All near term wells remain fully funded.

374 BOE and 17m market cap compares badly to other drillers :confused:

I think people expected more from the Frac but funded sounds good

hurfdurf · 1 Oct 2011 at 09:35

Is it normal for a company to contact you out of the blue, wanting to know how much of a specific stock you have an offering to purchase it for over 7x their current trading value?

They keep calling, they have sent a form wanting to me sign an NDA and wanting the details of the stock when I originally purchased it and my address and phone number. They have not asked for any of my bank details or anything like that.

jmhduck · 1 Oct 2011 at 09:45

hurfdurf said:
Is it normal for a company to contact you out of the blue, wanting to know how much of a specific stock you have an offering to purchase it for over 7x their current trading value?

They keep calling, they have sent a form wanting to me sign an NDA and wanting the details of the stock when I originally purchased it and my address and phone number. They have not asked for any of my bank details or anything like that.

Perhaps they are trying to take over the company in a hostile way?

Simon · 1 Oct 2011 at 09:47

How many shares do you own in % terms ?

silversurfer · 1 Oct 2011 at 12:36

Ive of heard it before and it was said to be a scam. I forget the exact catch about why but if it doesnt make sense you know this already

Is there an open market in such shares, check iii if anyone has a similar offer

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Post your guess here too if you enter, a sov is like 1/4 an ounce normally

Fuzz · 1 Oct 2011 at 14:05

hurfdurf · 1 Oct 2011 at 15:40

Simon said:
How many shares do you own in % terms ?

A tiny amount, minuscule. How do I find out? Is volume according to http://www.google.com/finance the number of shares that exist and then I work it out from there?

hurfdurf · 1 Oct 2011 at 15:54

I am being vague because they have sent me an NDA

hurfdurf · 1 Oct 2011 at 15:59

0.00041%

silversurfer · 1 Oct 2011 at 18:48

Dont worry about it too much, its a con. Check out MSE forums or iii or LSE and ask them, to the best of my knowledge you dont have any special advantage to sell on sorry.
Supply vs demand, are these shares in poor supply?

You can guess why they mention a NDA. Ask them for their FSA reg no.

iii will list shares issued. Here we were considering if CAD can return to its 200p IPO price or not

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QaxV0qyaUMo&feature=relmfu
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m-Z3awCv1hQ&feature=relmfu
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XbLfje8_jgI&feature=relmfu
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FVPt04ySYRE&feature=related

EURO is doomed like every currency

They dont print money, it looks worse but is probably the best of the biggest ironically. Dont forget your talking about Germany

Worst of all is USA but big money believes its fine so it is, till it isnt. :confused:

I reckon its the sharpest change in contrast forthcoming that will be the best trade

ScoTTyBEEE · 1 Oct 2011 at 19:37

FTSE not looking too healthy, a break of the red line which seems likely will take it to my 4800 target, below that and oh oh

ScoTTyBEEE · 1 Oct 2011 at 19:44

If I'm buying anything it's BHP Billton, possilbly gap down on open to entry, could do worse buys but miners at the moment could be dicey.

silversurfer · 3 Oct 2011 at 13:10

Yep I like BHP or BLT as it were

Not sure about the chart view, its pretty battered but near support from 2009 its hardly expensive seems to me

Did anything change with GKP ? In contrast to Sept and 190p it seems cheap again unless I missed something this is just the dilution fallout from those new shares I guess

So its near to the 132 scenario I was thinking about, worth a look maybe. I bought BP this morning again, but I'd happily swap the two now I think

Nice return of CNR also, doing the range its done all year. CAD I cant trade with its big spread, down again. possible takeover Im told but I never believe that stuff

I recognise that 1st pitchfork graph from back in 2009 also. Really not a clue on it otherwise lol

Qatari Royal family plans to spend up to $10bn buying stakes in $gld producers through their sovereign wealth fund

http://t.co/7JnNTzLZ