Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)

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Update number 2, FTSE, haven't got a trade in here and still don't, never broke red line properly and reversed for a strong uptrend, probably to sucker everyone in imho quite possibly a wash out up to 5560/70 and down, or start of an uptrend and my theory is wrong, can't say at this point. Sitting on the sidelines (would be if traded FTSE, but don't)

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Just to shut Dowie up, here's another I took this week, number 2 to number 5 (over 400 points) on audjpy, quite possibly will reverse from here, gonna be keeping a beady eye on this one, expecting them to run stops.

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And lastly possible long on usdchf, this is another one I'm going to be watching tonight/tomorrow. If we can break up from this support area, break over the red line and retest from the other side, I'm long.

2011-10-16_2151.png
 
Soldato
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Hey that was a very nice call on BHP as it turned out. Forex is really extreme compared to stocks, how about cable recently. I have it breaking its August downtrend and it did do well last week

Ironic when they just announced more QE then expected, sterling rises

Swiss franc is officially a manipulated currency, playing with fire for sure

Im not sure anyone cares or knows currency here but I do know forex, oil, bonds are all at least 10x larger then stocks. Stocks are sitting on the end of a bullwhip compared to the moneyflow that those markets produce

Thats why I think when bonds collapse it'll boom stocks but who knows

Which leads into RBS and Barc who deal everything, banks so big they could bankrupt the government with their bad debts in theory.
Lehman is paying back a lot of their 'bad' debt it just takes time. Barc has won a good deal there it seems like

The bank downgrades were due to rating agencies saying the government cant save them which is about right

Anyway, I dont know if Barc is ok or not. I know someone who works for them and bought a house worth at 70p and is adamant they are ok but I think that could just be misguided loyalty.
But I would hear if things on the retail side had gone bad but they are ok still. Most risk of Barc or RBS is submerged like an iceberg so dont kid yourself they are a bargain

Dr House What are your thoughts on BARC?

Im still holding quit a lot of them and plan to hold it until things pick up which could end up being a year or longer however I feel that there are probably large gains to be had if you are willing to wait.

I sold them too early last time so you are probably correct. Continued regular buying recently would have been good

Obviously 260 is a big number, they stuck underneath the ice at the moment. RRL is simple, either they find oil or not and I think oil price is simply going to go up quite fine but Barc is hard

So I'll consult the tealeaves/charts but the banks are very confusing/erratic and news driven. Generally they are depressed and broken stocks, the point on RRL was its (still) fine over a few years but Barc is not ok

I think Lloyds could reach 200 in a boom were inflation able to shrug off their debts for them, presuming they refinanced ok. 110 is a more normal 'sunny' target imo. Percentage wise ditto on all the banks


Speaking of Barc, who has an account with them ? This seems a very reasonable offer to track FTSE if you do believe Barc will survive ok, worth a look imo
https://www.stockbrokers.barclays.co.uk/?category=whatweoffer&usecase=landing207

Socgen do something similar, SG92 see selftrade for that (their dealers)
 
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Caporegime
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Dowie, can you stfu about your magic lines, you clearly know nothing about it from that post, not even real beginner first 5 mins stuff.

Why should I, you keep posting them - I'm as free to post my opinions as you are, you keep posting nonsense in the thread I'll happily keep posting my objections to it.

Anyway, magic line update number 1, would have netted you 250 points so far on BHP

Throwing darts at a copy of the FT might make you money.
 
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Caporegime
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Update number 2, FTSE, haven't got a trade in here and still don't, never broke red line properly and reversed for a strong uptrend, probably to sucker everyone in imho

Yes I'm sure the entire market respects a line you've subjectively drawn on your chart. Also the market as a whole collectively acted in order to set up particular events so as to 'suckering everyone in'...

You have some funny beliefs.
 
Soldato
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Hi Guys, Completely new to trading stock. So new I'm only just reading up on it right now :p

Quick question, Whats the best Day Trading Simulation software out there? I'd like to have a practice with the stabilizers on before I go out into the real world. I don't mind paying for it, aslong as its worth paying for it.

Thanks, Also any pointers on website for complete noobs? I'm talking I'm so new to this, I dont actually 100% know what is entailed past sellings stock before it decreases in value. :p
 
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Yea I saw that BP rise, what happened. I did realise it was abnormally well recently. Its only getting back to form, shouldnt get too excited

I did notice VS BLT since year start it has actually done 'well' Its down by like 10% (before this mornings rise) and BHP has lost more

BHP is probably the bigger bargain there, I do hold some long term despite dumping most of my trade in it recently

More magic stuff. A point I should stress is, this is all simple stuff, it looks messy but every point is simple. Layer it six times over and it gets confusing but I dont do complex stuff really.
Anyway in silver price we are hitting a silver point similar to Jan, cant remember if I already said. Silver is very iffy so I expect to be wrong but I thought that in Jan and missed profits

dRh95.png

other people might be lead to believe there is some validity to this BS and then potentially lose money as a result

To buy just because of a chart would be foolish. Like buying a car because of how it sounds would be, doesnt mean you cant have a preference and add some value to your judgement from it.
I only trade stocks I like anyway, might as well try to capture some of these crazy up and down moves. Average ftse gain is 3% a year, thats pretty crap

Throwing darts at a copy of the FT might make you money.
That works :D Totally valid to criticise but its a bit empty when you say nothing positive about any stock on any basis.
If your suggestion is to invest in nothing but british currency I think that is a losing trade though a slow one


Heres some history of people who did venture an opinion on stocks in turbulent times (vs random)

dZYuN.jpg

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/investing-and-markets/article.html?in_article_id=456989&in_page_id=3

questor.png



Whats the best Day Trading Simulation software out there?

Thanks, Also any pointers on website for complete noobs?

Does not compute. You dont day trade if you know nothing even pretend because luck and false premise will kid you into believing you know something. Walk into a casino and bet it all on black if you want to do that, your odds are better
Sign upto stockchallenge and pick 5 stocks. Come back in Dec and tell us how it went

My choices this month were emed vgm Lloyds rrl Zen



So this is just 'join the dots' on a chart

bPSmS.png

^^Monthly trend going back a long time is negative


A4wEG.png

I think 190 is a top for now but if it can rise on volume then 230 to 260 is a very fair target for this year. 300 odd is going to require a lot of buyers, optimism it would mark an extreme

The extremes are 110 to 310. I think it'll see 310 but overall Barc is not good

B10g1.gif





I will buy a small bit of Weir again if market can pull back some. This is a healthy trend -
spc9o.gif


respects a line you've subjectively drawn on your chart
The idea is to draw the line where it touches as many points as possible at once in a straight line.
If you can find 20 out of 52 weeks it has continued this number sequence as its higher or lowest price in that week or month, its not a bad idea to think what if it did that again - maybe thats 'a good price'

Does the market respect an opinion, no but it respects that millions of shares were traded at 260p and only 100,000 were traded at 220p. 260 is the magic number on the chart then

What actually breaks trends or price history is news and earnings but I presume no one buys blindly. The two should both be positive


The Obama administration has infuriated environmentalists by giving BP the green light to bid for new drilling rights in the Gulf of Mexico, The Observer reports. The move – seen as a major step in the company's political rehabilitation as an offshore driller following the Deepwater Horizon accident – was revealed by the head of the US safety regulator after a congressional hearing in Washington. "They don't have a deeply flawed record offshore," said Michael Bromwich, head of the newly formed Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement. "The question is: 'Do you administer the administrative death penalty based on one incident?', and we have concluded that's not appropriate."

https://www.share.com/cgi-bin/oicgi...&csi=10022&action=news&story_id=4589562&rns=1
 
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Soldato
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Hmm, I'm just looking for an entry point. I've had a look at Stockchallenge, and I've taken a peak at your stocks through google finance. Also just signed up for a free account at prorealtime. Obviously I'm not expecting to jump into earning consistently(Although I wouldnt mind) It just looks a good thing to get into, And with me having no experience, I just need a guiding hand as I'm not a fan of throwing money away blindly on a gamble.
 
Caporegime
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To buy just because of a chart would be foolish. Like buying a car because of how it sounds would be, doesnt mean you cant have a preference and add some value to your judgement from it.

But how do you know it actually adds any value? In particular the subjective stuff - you can't back test a line you've eyeballed and manually placed on a chart.

That works :D Totally valid to criticise but its a bit empty when you say nothing positive about any stock on any basis.

Do I have to say something positive about a homeopathy remedy in order to criticism homeopathy?


Does not compute. You dont day trade if you know nothing even pretend because luck and false premise will kid you into believing you know something. Walk into a casino and bet it all on black if you want to do that, your odds are better

totally agree


The idea is to draw the line where it touches as many points as possible at once in a straight line.

The previous poster didn't seem to do this - he had a red horizontal line, he could have had a horizontal line further up that touched more points looking at only that section of the chart - it all seems very silly tbh...

Does the market respect an opinion, no but it respects that millions of shares were traded at 260p and only 100,000 were traded at 220p. 260 is the magic number on the chart then

Perhaps we're getting onto something that is worth looking into....
But the number of times the price touches a magic line doesn't necessarily give you any real picture of the volume. Your last post does contain one chart giving a crude indication of volume, you'd get a more accurate picture from T&S figures (not forgetting that you'd have to aggregate these from different exchanges/ECNs).
 
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Caporegime
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Quick question, Whats the best Day Trading Simulation software out there? I'd like to have a practice with the stabilizers on before I go out into the real world. I don't mind paying for it, aslong as its worth paying for it.

Its isn't generally feasible for individual punters to daytrade UK equities, you will have to have a $25k account balance minimum for the US or will need to use a prop firm (which will often require series 7 exam).

You will likely lose your money.
 
Caporegime
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understood, but could you recommend a sim platform? :)

I don't trade cash equities - the platform you use is going to partially depend on your broker/data feed anyway - in some instance you might simply have to use whatever they give you. You'll also have different requirements depending on what you intend to are you scalping, or will you be trading pairs or taking other market neutral approaches, will you be automating your strategy, do you require a FIX engine etc..etc.. You'll still need to pay for data regardless though you might well get say a month's free trial.
 
Soldato
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I used to trade with HSBC but I've since moved from the Lloyds for all my other banking needs. One of the reasons was HSBC launched a security dongle which means I can't log in at all but one of my home/work/girlfriends so it's useless.

What third party sites do people use to trade? Can't remember the ones that have been batted about off the top of my head. Lloyds charge too much and it'd be nice to separate my personal banking and trading anyway.
 
Soldato
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Obviously I'm not expecting to jump into earning consistently(Although I wouldnt mind) It just looks a good thing to get into, And with me having no experience, I just need a guiding hand as I'm not a fan of throwing money away blindly on a gamble.

Read that naked trader book, he just released an updated version I read or just books in general is probably a good idea. He has a website also, check out some of the losses he takes as part of 'the game'


This guys very good on charts - http://www.alphatrends.net/favorite-posts/

You can even sign up to his trading service though that really is the deep end imo, you'd need main market usa access which Im not sure how easy that is to get. But he is a good guy so who knows maybe you'd be ok

I can refer you to a couple companies that give real time prices and graphs for trading that I think are the best on various factors, send me a message through trust if you want.
The concept of day trading is like if said I want to bet on greyhounds and Im not expecting to earn a living right away, its a similar kind of context.

The lowest risk way I would say is split payment over a year and use unit trusts. If really preferring shares then ETF is kinda similar
Investing is a positive net sum return business spread over a 5 year time frame and daytrading is a negative sum process, it involves spending money, risking capital and taking losses immediately because holding might mean bankruptcy in 5 days

Also I can refer to a guy who teaches day trading for a few hundred over skype and apart from being very good at it, is just a normal (british) guy
So a bit easier then the guy above who is an ex-lehmans broker and doesnt do the 1 to 1 lessons


The market pullback is in line with Euro topping out so just like hitting your head on the ceiling a bit, doesnt mean we have to have to hit the floor. Iam wondering how it will be taken, my guess is sideways some till major news or fears on bailouts and all that rubbish


Bought some HOIL and RRL and closed a sp500 short and bought some Lloyds

I wonder if Xstrata and Glencore are cheap especially with some results today, they are linked. ENRC is 25% owned by KAZ not sure if there are others, CNE and VED

UPDATE: Xstrata Thermal Coal Output Soars, But Copper Struggles
--Xstrata Sees Record 3Q Thermal Coal Output After Earlier Weather Issues

--Mined Copper Output Slips Following Weather, Lower Grades, Repairs

--Lead Metal Output Falls 32% After Delayed Shipment From U.K.'s Britannia

--Xstrata Says Financial Position Remains Robust

LONDON (Dow Jones)--Anglo-Swiss miner Xstrata PLC (XTA.LN) Tuesday reported record third quarter thermal coal output as the company put weather-related production setbacks from earlier in the year firmly behind it.

But the company's mined copper output suffered from lower ore grades, blizzard conditions and repairs to equipment which reduced performance.

Copper and coal are the main earnings drivers for Xstrata, accounting for 44% and 29% respectively of 2010 full-year operating earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, or Ebitda.

Xstrata said its operating and financial performance "continues to be strong" and that its financial position "remains robust." "Significant headroom has been maintained within Xstrata's corporate debt facilities and $6.8 billion remains undrawn," it added.

Third quarter thermal coal output, excluding semi-soft coal, was 13% higher year-on-year and 22% up from the previous quarter, at 20.0 million metric tons.

Total mined copper production in the period was in line with the second quarter but 4% lower than the same period of 2010, at 223,606 tons.

Production at Collahuasi in Chile was impacted by planned lower grades, blizzard conditions in July and 18 days of repairs to the conveyor belt in September which reduced feed to the concentrator. Planned lower grades at Mount Isa, Kidd and Tintaya mines also contributed to lower production, although output at Alumbrera rose due to higher grades and improvements to the grinding and pebbles circuit which improved throughput.

At Antamina in Peru, the processing of a larger proportion of copper-only ores resulted in higher copper grades, while debottlenecking led to improved throughput and recoveries, Xstrata said.

Copper cathode output was also down, by 4.5% year-on-year to 163,683 tons.

The group's results in lead were a mixed bag. Lead in concentrate production rose 5% year-on-year to 53,519 tons, mainly due to increased production at McArthur River mine, but lead metal output fell 32% to 37,396 tons due to a delayed lead bullion shipment to Britannia Refined Metals in the U.K.

Production of nickel and zinc metal were both higher. Total nickel production rose to 26,738 tons in the third quarter, 15% higher than the same period last year, while zinc metal output rose by 4.4% year-on-year, to 184,220 tons.

Xstrata's shares closed Monday at 949.0 pence.

-By Andrea Hotter, Dow Jones Newswires; +44 (0)20 7842 9413; [email protected]

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

October 18, 2011 02:55 ET (06:55 GMT)

Not much of a pullback VGM continues to float like gold :p PMO PDL BARC Weir on lower prices would be good

I dont think anyone on this thread is a daytrader btw, I think poker they show on tv is a better idea unless you really like companies.
I can also give a pointer on deals for that though I dont play, there was an ocuk thread on such things I remember and I never got round to it. Stick to what is familiar is the best tip

Russ try Halifax and X-O if you are just dealing normal shares
 

Ev0

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Soldato
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I'm with HSBC and don't have any dongle, just their version of the little keypad thingy all the banks are using now.
 
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