Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)

[ScoTTyBEEE]

Magic line updates, just for Dowie

I was out on the FTSE reversal by 20 or so points, so I won't include that one. But there wasn't a trade there for me, so no loss.

 

[silversurfer]

Dollar is strengthening hence market pullback. It was due to do that though, see how long it lasts.

Do you have a good link for the pitchfork idea because I dont see it that often

But how do you know it actually adds any value? In particular the subjective stuff - you can't back test a line you've eyeballed and manually placed on a chart.

Place a trade on the line and see how it works. If it doesnt, you keep an honest record and learn what works
Keeping good records is half the deal of learning, thats why I spam this thread, I dont imagine my posts are that fascinating but its a plus over just keeping a mental record

Do I have to say something positive about a homeopathy remedy in order to criticism homeopathy?

Yes because even placebo effects can work. If a trade works or especially if a method consistently performs then it has a worth.


This is prime voodoo. Fib retracement, even I think this is weird. But I put it out and see what happens, there is no absolute proof because anything at all can occur



0% is the top price of 'the move' and 100% is the bottom. If it stays above 61% its a bullish move.
Anyone who took profits near 100 could rebuy now on that basis

I dont argue in favour of taking extra risk, I recommend to balance the buy against a previous sale which is a lot better then doubling down, etc

Its a case of can I improve my probability of guessing right, if yes why the heck wouldnt you.

 

[dowie]

Magic line updates, just for Dowie

Sticking three red lines on a chart at giving an ambiguous forecast and then claiming that forecast has been fulfilled really is a bit naive.

 

[dowie]

Place a trade on the line and see how it works. If it doesnt, you keep an honest record and learn what works
Keeping good records is half the deal of learning, thats why I spam this thread, I dont imagine my posts are that fascinating but its a plus over just keeping a mental record

Hang on a minute you're basically using a subjective methodology and testing it by keeping a few screen prints and seemingly forming a subjective opinion on whether it 'worked'.

This is exactly why a lot of this stuff is utter BS and the advocates of it just serve to kid themselves.

 

[ScoTTyBEEE]

Sticking three red lines on a chart at giving an ambiguous forecast and then claiming that forecast has been fulfilled really is a bit naive.

Everything in trading is ambiguous, there are no definites, it would be easy it there were.

I'm not going to bother arguing the toss with you anymore. Your ill informed but think you know it all, you won't make any money in the stock market.

 

[dowie]

Everything in trading is ambiguous, there are no definites, it would be easy it there were.

If you're going to test something then it helps if what you're trying to illustrate is testable in the first place - ambiguous statements aren't really.

I'm not going to bother arguing the toss with you anymore. Your ill informed but think you know it all, you won't make any money in the stock market.

Well considering I don't trade 'the stock market' anyway I'm already well aware that I won't make any money from it.

 

[ScoTTyBEEE]

If you're going to test something then it helps if what you're trying to illustrate is testable in the first place - ambiguous statements aren't really.



Well considering I don't trade 'the stock market' anyway I'm already well aware that I won't make any money from it.

No-one likes a smart arse. Enjoy belittling people on this thread if that's what gets you off.

 

[dowie]

No-one likes a smart arse. Enjoy belittling people on this thread if that's what gets you off.

No one likes people posting nonsense tbh... but carry on if that's what gets you off.

Point is the utter garbage you've posted - sort of a fisher price, time series analysis made easy approach shouldn't be left unchallenged. Other people might well believe there is some validity to it and this sort of stuff can cause people financial losses. Quite frankly idiots who post subjective nonsense like you've done deserve to be belittled.

 

[silversurfer]

Hang on a minute you're basically using a subjective methodology and testing it by keeping a few screen prints

My point really was it either helps or it doesnt. So testing would involve making a profit pretty much.

Not kidding yourself about good luck is a personal thing, I agree with you on your warning do not photocopy people trades or ideas even if they say it 'works'.
Probability represents valid reasoning, it can be applied to just about any natural system. Ask your nearest maths teacher if its a con

If theres a better solution then Im interested in anyones methods. How about the Questor and Naked trader 'tips' That surely ranks as more sensible how they weigh up a company

sort of a fisher price

Simplicity I always love to see, it represents something true and reliable in my experience


Glad I closed my short this evening, markets basically fully recovered. FTSE future is 5467
Apple has fallen 5% after hours on 'disappointing' results though these will not include the latest phone sales

Apple ($AAPL) has opened higher the next morning after earnings 11 out of last 12 times it has reported. $$

Gold is doing nothing but weaving back and forth and my guess is its making a rise later more likely


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...tor-share-tip-Vatukoula-needs-to-deliver.html

 

[Panda]

More positive news for HER today, a copy and paste for anyone interested, the last paragraph alone wants me to hang onto my little pot to ride higher on the (possible)news:

Herencia Resources plc


("Herencia" or the "Company")

High Grade Drill Assay Results Continue at Paguanta

Highlights:

· High grade assay results from the Patricia drilling program including:

o 13.0m at 7.4% zinc, 2.6% lead and 133g/t silver in PTDD096

including 4.0m at 11.2% zinc, 6.0% lead and 296g/t silver

including 1.0m at 16.3% zinc, 12.1% lead and 624g/t silver

o 5.0m at 5.2% zinc, 2.8% lead and 86g/t silver in PTDD085

o 2.0m at 7.8% zinc, 1.3% lead and 103g/t silver in PTDD069

Following on from the high grade drill assays announced to the market last week, Herencia Resources is pleased to provide further high grade drill results in relation to its Paguanta Project (Herencia 70% owner) in northern Chile:

· Results from diamond drill hole PTDD096 (Cathedral Vein) include grades of 13m at 7.4% zinc, 2.6% lead and
133g/t silver from 154m including:

o 4m at 11.2% zinc, 6.0% lead and 296g/t silver from 154m depth, including:

o 1m at 16.3% zinc, 12.1% lead and 624g/t silver from 156m depth

and

o 6m at 6.8% zinc, 0.9% lead and 58g/t silverfrom 161m

· Hole PTDD096 (Cathedral Vein) also returned grades of 2m at 5.9% zinc, 1.1% lead and 84g/t silver from 142m
including 1.0m at 9.8% zinc, 2.2% lead, 148g/t silver and 0.59g/t gold from 143m depth, and 2.0m at 7.3% zinc, 2.6% lead and 163g/t silver from 149m including 1.0m at 10.9% zinc, 4.4% lead and 262g/t silver from 149m.

· Results from diamond drill hole PTDD085 (Cathedral Vein) include grades of 8m at 3.8% zinc, 2.1% lead and 63g/t
silver from 227m including 5.0m at 5.2% zinc, 2.8% lead and 86g/t silver from 230m depth.

· Results from diamond drill hole PTDD069 (Cathedral Vein) include grades of 8m at 3.3% zinc, 0.7% lead and 43g/t
silver from 197m including 2.0m at 7.8% zinc, 1.3% lead and 103g/t silver from 203m depth.

Herencia's Managing Director Michael Bohm commented "Again, Patricia appears to be delivering these consistent grade profiles. PTDD096 is a good hole and we have further deeper assays from this hole pending. Drilling is progressing on site and we expect to complete the Patricia drill program prior to Christmas."

 

[TheDean]

Taking a big step...

...

 

[Aloreth]

You should bear in mind that if you invest into managed funds you will pay the fund manager a % of the value of the fund, for the Troy income fund the rate is 1% on ordinary shares, this will simply be calculated and deducted from the assets of the fund before its daily pricing so you wont see the money coming out.

If your current investment advisor charges 1% AMC and then invests into managed funds (as many of the lazy ******** do) then you will be making a saving.

(http://www.taml.co.uk/archive-reports/fact-sheets)

 

[TheDean]

...

 

[silversurfer]

I dont have any of those but I recognise 3i inf as Questor likes that one

Went with investec gold instead of blackrock mining.

You could post this on MSE as an IFA posts on there. If you get an independent to rebate back all commission and some of the management charges for you, it could be cheaper for you.
I use HL SIPP as they are best for the smaller amounts

Went for a buy on Xstrata today but I missed the deadline on reduced cost dealing orders for today so its not cleared.
I'll wait and see over the next week if I actually pick some up, I was only getting a bit
No special reason from the chart, 600 would be a magic number there but when 4000 is possible and I think it is Im not inclined to wait

I just think they already cheap so wanted to scale in, so cheap they could be taken over maybe though I never chase that story

CAD RRL and CNR down, same old thing. Dollar up. Copper down, bad China GDP only 9.1% growth, dam hence XTA not likely to boom in theory
Longterm its cheap says questor, I reckon he is not far wrong

 

[silversurfer]

Since this is a tech forum, thought I'd ask if anyone knows much about Superconductors or electricity supply routing

I noticed ZEN is up 50% recently, an extremely 'cheap' share. They have no debt but are burning through their cash unless they can develop their products in time to take off in the next 18 months

Engineering is a real hot sector, maybe a bit of a secret compared to oil gas or more obvious plays but those skills are very in demand globally though this company is a bit specialist for me to decide which way they will go

Further to the announcement of 15 September 2011 regarding corporate restructuring and the new design non-superconducting Magnetic Fault Current Limiter (“MFCL”), Zenergy is providing a further progress update.
As stated previously, the Group is now focused on the MFCL market and, in particular, on non-superconducting MFCLs. Testing of key concepts have validated the non- superconducting technologies, and a half-scale prototype has been built and tested successfully. Work has already commenced on a full-scale demonstration MFCL.
Following this successful half-scale test, Zenergy will immediately seek to secure sales orders and commence commercial production of non-superconducting MFCLs in voltage classes; ranging from 4kv to 154kv.
The production and testing of an 11kv superconducting MFCL unit, (whose sale was originally announced last year), has now been completed. Fulfilment of this contract will result in Zenergy receiving £500,000 of cash net of costs.
The German subsidiary, Zenergy Power GmbH, has now entered into administration and is not expected to have any further material financial impact on the Group.
It can also be confirmed that overall operating costs are now running at approximately £4m per annum - down from £12m per annum previously. With nearly £6m in current cash balances, plus the additional £500,000 expected from the above 11kv MFCL, the Group has sufficient working capital for at least 18 months (even assuming no sales revenues).

http://www.4-traders.com/ZENERGY-PO...nt-Limiter-MFCL-test-results-update-13847345/

Market cap is 5.5m

 

[wannabedamned]

Hey, I'm glad I came back and checked this thread out. I got a little bit disheartened last time. Some of what got said made it sound like I'd be wasting my time trying to day trade in the UK. Thanks for the post Silversurfer. I'm just off into town to buy Naked Trader, Going to pick it up from WHsmiths. It's always best to start somewhere, I'll consider this my step 1. Read a book

I will send you a trust message when I get my head around the whole thing a little more, As right now. I'm as virgin to trading stocks as one could possibly be.

 

[silversurfer]

Not trying to put you off but I started taking a big interest in 2008 and Halifax did an offer of free regular trading then, if I had gone that route instead it would have saved me money.
So if your saying daytrading, Im saying write on your calander 2008 because nothing changed, they havent fixed anything and they wont. Its more dangerously volatile then ever

Luckily volatile means big rises possible as well as big down which is bad if you short but can turn nice ( I hope)


Make sure you get VERSION 3 of that book, not 2 or #1 which I actually got free, all good but he references 2008 in #3 apparently





More earnings next week. CREE plunged this week on flat earnings I think it was, looking at 25 area as 'sticky' and it remains high PE but LED has growth potential imo as part of the whole infrastructure play



BP recovery is nice and strong. I have 450 area as a ceiling which I will probably sell a bit, its in line which the negative trend for the year.
A natural accumulation of buying and selling occurs there which is enough to make it pause a while
Targets last week OCT:
477
450-461 top of range
434 to hold positive momentum
405 bottom of 2011 'normal' range

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...vsk-smashes-its-target-and-goes-for-gold.html

 

[Simon]

Surely those ranges are irrelevant now that BP annouce results on Tuesday, have just been given $4.5 billion as well as being awarded a drilling contract for 4 wells in the GoM.

 

[silversurfer]

Those events I think were known possibilities so to some extent they are in the price in that shares predict future events.
I just will use the numbers as my guide to how positive we are right now, gauge the reaction.
Im not saying we have to stay at a certain numbers but put me down as surprised if we do get to 477, thats big imo

BP is one of my biggest shares, so taking a bit off during a rise is good practise. I'll put it somewhere else like HOIL maybe, spread the success about or more formally rebalancing
[Kurds are being bombed by Turkey again recently though]


This is about how much sense share movements (re: events vs price) make imo but also this is a rephrase of socrates so

 

[Fuzz]

Sunday morning reading.

http://bit.ly/oaTZMT