Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)

[Simon]

All Im saying is that if everyone followed charts and bought when 'told' this will cause a share price increase meaning everyone, who used that tool, would think it worked

 

[nero120]

My finger is hovering over the sell button for barc... sold!

 

[silversurfer]

All Im saying is that if everyone followed charts and bought when 'told' this will cause a share price increase meaning everyone, who used that tool, would think it worked

Yes that does happen. 250 will bounce to 255 for that reason then the guys who made it go to 250 in the first place carry on selling and the TA guys who blindly buy on 'support' find out momentum matters more

Its a complicated argument but the really big holders are like oil tankers, they arent darting in and out.
Look up when Buffet bought Coke, he was buying it every day for 6 months. Why spread it, because he is elephant sized and he cant afford to cause a splash and make the price surge 20% straight away

I think the really big buyers just exceed the normal trading liquidity so they have to split their selling or buying, they employ brokers to do it and that series of orders becomes a pattern or trend as many in the market can think similar. (everyone gets on one side of the boat, etc)

No doubt this is explained in some book, Ive not read many but on the back of a company AGM agenda they often detail company buying programs for a share buyback with rules about buying within the 5 or 10 moving average price.
HOIL rebought 10% of their shares this year & that kind of thing will show up in the graph somewhere. Its just a historical record of sales.

Every order to buy is matched by an order to sell of course! But it is imbalanced or prices would never change. Better guys then me know how, there is level 2 data showing actual orders waiting to clear. I never look at that mostly because Im not big enough, all my data is free Im not a trader



Sold ATK but was an old order. Not sure if I got the right price now considering market change
CAZA up 28% on top of other gains, considering it was down like 90% I would hope. Why it should do this now especially Im not sure.

ZEN also is up like 80% They had a sale, not in superconductors but proving they are not a lame goose yet

CAD down most for me, I knew it doh. Just need a nice rise in gold now really, silver up 5%

Barc range is about 205 to 215 now I think. I would probably some sub 200 if possible, I may buy this as a proxy to the FTSE if/when I think it can continue rising

I need a bloomberg terminal, takes me like 30 mins to get the dam prices up and java runs out of memory all the time Anyone got 64 bit Java working?

Russia Leaves Rates On Hold; Inflation Risk Balanced By Growth
(Adds comment, context.)

By Ira Iosebashvili

Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

MOSCOW (Dow Jones)--The Bank of Russia left policy rates unchanged at its monthly policy setting meeting Friday, but said it would keep a closer watch on the potential inflationary effects of a weaker ruble, rising prices for consumer goods and increased economic activity.

"Current rate levels... are acceptable for establishing a near-term balance between risks of inflation and risks of slowing growth," the central bank said in a statement accompanying its decision.

The regulator noted, however, that the beneficial effects of the summer's bumper crop on food prices were beginning to fade, and said it would monitor the influence of a weak ruble on consumer prices.

Russia's currency lost as much as 6.6% from mid-September to its early October lows, before rebounding in the last week on optimism that euro-zone leaders would find a solution to the region's sovereign debt crisis.

The central bank also said that Russia's economy had sent "mixed" signals in the past month, with industrial production falling in September while other indicators, such as capital investments, showed growth.

"These indicators of internal growth may become both a source of increased economic activity and a source of inflationary pressures," the regulator said.

Annual inflation stood at 6.9% as of Oct 24, the central bank said. The regulator has pledged to keep consumer prices at 7% or below for 2011.

"The central bank seems comfortable with the current levels of policy rates, but it does stand ready to change course in line with evolving macroeconomic conditions, internally and externally," Ivan Tchakarov, chief economist at Renaissance Capital, wrote in a note to investors.

The central bank left the deposit rate and repo rate at 3.75% and 5.25%, respectively. The refinancing rate remains at 8.25%, the regulator said.

The Bank of Russia also said it will extend the maturity of loans secured by gold to 180 days and set the interest rate on such loans with maturity from 91 to 180 days at 7.25% per year.

This is how the other half live. Those not inside the Dollar bubble struggle (we are in)




This relates to BP and its peers . Bit of a ceiling to overcome I reckon combined with oil price that needs to be strong (its not risen since Tues)

 

[Ev0]

Nice little rise from VOG again today, good things coming there I think.

 

[silversurfer]

A good story on VOG ? They look diversified, wish I looked earlier into them now.

Kazakhstan is like Disneyland for resources, Tony Blair is there doing something

Pity my Kazakhstan share SKR is crap but half the shares are owned by directors. I figure this is good insurance

Buying back ATK at 580 I think, had sold at 598 [They deal engineering companies, not just buy but sell at profit and this is a hot sector I think ]
Buying BP at 450, I reckon we have a good chance of some cashing in before Wed

Not brave enough to SB

1 unit is 100 shares and for BP for example it costs me about 70p to trade each unit. Puts me into the same league as the real dealers without having to spend big amounts like they do.
To me thats the main advantage, just dont go thinking your Bud Fox and accept 2008 type moves will keep happening so stay loose

 

[Ev0]

RRL is just bouncing over the latest RNS, if people were quick they could have just had a nice buy in sub 9 for it to bounce right back over!

Final results for VOG and everything is sounding decent, still a good buy in price imho sub 4.5p

 

[Firestar_3x]

Nice rise from FML (13%) and CNR (6%) today, looks like things are finally on the way back up.

 

[nero120]

My finger is hovering over the sell button for barc... sold!

I'm actually impressed with myself, I managed to sell out pretty much at the top of today's range (so far) - 214, and now it's dropped back. That usually never happens!

Nice rise from FML (13%) and CNR (6%) today, looks like things are finally on the way back up.

Yeah CNR is my ace in the hole. Though in some ways I wish it didn't rise to give me more cheap top up opportunities before the big news next year. If El Sal comes back online as well... boom!

 

[Oh Ed not again.]

Mmm, looking nice on CNR indeed. Here's to a good couple of weeks.

ORE appears to be doing a little better in the last couple of days as well which is nice to see, although I'm starting to get a bit antsy about that. This talk of "winter preparations" for the mine seems to indicate a downing of tools, meaning inevitably it's going to sit there languishing for the winter doing owt.

Might get out of that for a bit and sink some into CNR, where it's warmer for one!

 

[fendi]

Mmm, looking nice on CNR indeed. Here's to a good couple of weeks.

ORE appears to be doing a little better in the last couple of days as well which is nice to see, although I'm starting to get a bit antsy about that. This talk of "winter preparations" for the mine seems to indicate a downing of tools, meaning inevitably it's going to sit there languishing for the winter doing owt.

Might get out of that for a bit and sink some into CNR, where it's warmer for one!

Have you seen the photos on the ORE website? It looks like they will be working throughout winter. An email to their PR company, Adam, or Guy should be able to answer the question.

 

[Oh Ed not again.]

Good call, I might ping one off (and a mail phnarr) and see what they say.

 

[dowie]

Every order to buy is matched by an order to sell of course! But it is imbalanced or prices would never change. Better guys then me know how, there is level 2 data showing actual orders waiting to clear.

Price movements come from orders crossing the bid/offer spread

Here is a simple made up example - a fictitious futures contract, Dowie Futures, is shown below- current bid is 118.5 offer is 119.0

.................121.0...482
.................120.5...182
.................120.0...125
.................119.5....628
Offer...........119.0....45
Bid...127.....118.5
........489....118.0
.......1002...117.5
.......1823...117.0
.........893...116.5

Someone executes a buy order for 100 lots at market - the 45 lots that were sat at 119.0 are matched and 55 of the lots at 119.5 are matched - the market then temporarily looks like this:


.................121.0...482
.................120.5...182
.................120.0...125
Offer...........119.5....573
..................119.0
Bid...127.....118.5
........489....118.0
.......1002...117.5
.......1823...117.0
.........893...116.5

the offer might then drop back down to 119.0 as more sell limit orders come in or the bid might move up to 119.0 as more buy limit orders come in... it all happens very rapidly and in fractions of a second - a price ladder will be constantly changing as more limit orders are added or pulled - there is no imbalance, 1 lot is sold for every lot bought - it is the crossing of the bid/offer spread (and orders being added/pulled) that causes prices to change.

 

[Fuzz]

It's going to be an interesting couple of weeks

Monday, October 31
October flash inflation data for the eurozone comes out on Monday. Everyone will be looking to see whether inflation declines from the 3.0% annual number it hit in September.

Talk of a cut in interest rates by the European Central Bank has been circulating for months, amid signs of the eurozone's deteriorating economic position. However, another high inflation number could dissuade the bank's monetary policy committee from taking a more accommodative stance.


Tuesday, November 1
Italian Mario Draghi will take the top spot at the ECB from outgoing President Jean-Claude Trichet.

Everyone's been chattering about the likelihood that Draghi will spearhead more activist measures than the French Trichet, whose staunch commitment to price stability came under fire when he controversially cut rates earlier this year.

Draghi has hinted that he might be open to a rate cut soon. We'll see if he makes good on that.

Thursday, November 3
The European Central Bank holds a meeting to decide on monetary policy.

Mixed reports are surfacing about what can be expected. UBS said today that it's looking for a 50bps rate cut, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley say they see a 25bps cut, but most investors expect that interest rates will remain unchanged.

Analysts have been endorsing a rate cut for months citing poor economic data and the deteriorating state of the sovereign debt crisis.

Thursday, November 3 - Friday, November 4
G20 leaders are set to meet in Cannes, France.

Crisis in the eurozone will undoubtedly be a prime topic of conversation, particularly after reports that China is expressing interest in contributing to the European rescue fund alongside the IMF.

The U.S. has been opposed to increasing the size of the IMF, and is unlikely to support participation in the bailout. This political divide is likely to deepen at the summit.

G20 leaders will also likely talk about that financial transaction tax German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy proposed in August, as well as ways of supporting banks that are "too big too fail."

Monday, November 7
The 17 finance ministers of the euro area — the Eurogroup — will meet, likely to discuss the implementation of the measures heads of state agreed upon at Wednesday's EU summit.

At the summit, EU leaders told reporters that these economic ministers would be responsible for working out a lot of the technical issues with these plans.

They'll probably spend most of their time talking about ways of leveraging the European Financial Stability Facility and implementation of a plan in which Greek bondholders will "voluntarily" take 50% haircuts on Greek bonds

Tuesday, November 8
Monday's Eurogroup meeting is followed by a meeting of Ecofin, which includes the finance ministers from all 27 EU states.

They'll probably discuss many of the same issues the Eurogroup discussed the day before, but they'll probably focus on proposals to change EU treaties and alter eurozone governance.

We could see a renewal of tensions between states that do and do not use the euro. Those tensions flared at a meeting of EU leaders last Sunday, but appeared to calm at a second summit on Wednesday.

Thursday, November 10
Italy will hold its next bond auction on November 10.

Today's auction was poorly received, with yields topping 6.06% — the highest level seen at an auction since Italy joined the euro.

Progress on domestic austerity measures as well as eurozone-wide measures to stem the crisis will determine if this auction fares any better.

 

[silversurfer]

Barc results on Monday

Barclays gets the week off to a flying start with a trading statement which, as usual, is likely to be dominated by Barclays Capital (BarCap), the investment banking arm of the organisation.

Credit Suisse expects BarCap to announce “clean” revenues of £1.9bn for the third quarter, down 31% from the £3.3bn seen in the preceding quarter. “Note this does not include gains from own debt and/or impact from credit market assets,” Credit Suisse observes.

As for the operations as a whole, Credit Suisse says the environment has deteriorated since Barclays held its Investor Seminar in June, when it set out several targets, so the company may take the opportunity to revise these. “We will also be looking for progress on Basel III mitigation efforts. With the increase in market volatility, we could see market RWAs [risk weighted assets] increasing and offsetting some of the deleveraging,” Credit Suisse added.

http://www.digitallook.com/news/4620082/Week_Ahead_Danger_of_Barclays_revising_targets.html

I bought some on Friday close, not sure thats too clever but I dont see how they could be quite so bad as to fall dramatically from here excluding the whole contagion theory

Dowie I'd take your example as a buy because the majority is taken above offer. Presumably this helps move the price up

 

[Eriedor]

What is people's opinion on SuperGroup's situation?

I've heard lots of suggestions since their plummet at the beginning of October that they're "worth a punt" but they still keep losing value. Last time their SP was this low profits and turnover was half their current numbers.

 

[kash786]

What is people's opinion on SuperGroup's situation?

I've heard lots of suggestions since their plummet at the beginning of October that they're "worth a punt" but they still keep losing value. Last time their SP was this low profits and turnover was half their current numbers.

I fell part of the group of 'worth a punt' - I've invested 2k @ 7.14, not looking great at the minute.

I know they had some problems with a new warehouse system, which effected their annual sales figues quite badly, hence the drop. I'm praying on a good Christmas from them though

 

[Oh Ed not again.]

Back in profit.

WTF, this isn't right.

 

[silversurfer]

Market bit down, Dollar value rises because YEN sold off. Artificial government measures, should just be temporary really

Oil is ok still.

Barc rose then fell as details not fabulous for them, still its a rise in profit and the share price has fallen which says to me they aint so bad

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/Barclays-profits-blasted-tele-2679086656.html?x=0&.v=1

Not expecting a big sell to continue but hopefully shake BP down a bit more tomorrow so I can rebuy some. It might be it alters or decides its course after ex-div :/

Just noticed New york has sold off BP some. Still shows strong on the week afaik (8pm close this week)

 

[GarethSouthgate]

Shouldn't have sold BP really. Ah well! Might try a cheeky punt on Supergroup once I have a chance to do a bit of research on them.

 

[godsense]

I fell part of the group of 'worth a punt' - I've invested 2k @ 7.14, not looking great at the minute.

I know they had some problems with a new warehouse system, which effected their annual sales figues quite badly, hence the drop. I'm praying on a good Christmas from them though

Had my eye on this one for months, glad i didnt touch it. Market has given it a tough time but imo they have my quite a few schoolboy errors. Down another 10points today. But i think you may be right, if they can keep on track with figures and get stock into stores.