Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)

[silversurfer]

Why did it rise especially now. They only recovered a previous low from my perspective

Decent volume

VGM is up 18% but then it fell like 90% so its a long way yet to where it could be, 1000% gain possible 10x average vol apparently. This will be from gold strength I guess
RRL up 12% 25m vol, 50 or 100m would make me think it'll go back to 16

Gold is being weak now, gld to hold 159 for this week and it could be explosive

 

[verbal]

XEL now up 54% from when I tipped it.

Why did it rise especially now.

1. The whole project is mostly derisked off the back of the succesful extended well test, there's loads of oil and it flows.

2. Socius/Global (lenders) control has recently ended.

3. Investors/Traders have seen XEL fly up in price before and and want to get in for the short term profits.

4. Rumours of JV / Farm out / Takeover make people invest for the chance of huge returns.

5. The company has been undervalued for AGES and most people know it but they have been waiting for a rise rather than sitting for months invested in XEL when they could have been using the money for other investments/trades.

6. Insiders are buying in based on privileged knowledge.

7. A company who wants to take over XEL is accumulating a significant holding at a low price.

Mix and match the above reasons (plus others) as you wish.

 

[RichIbizaSport]

Buy XEL

No downside at the current deliberately suppressed price, a number of possible upsides all leading to a much higher share price in the near future. DYOR

Tipped on Friday, up 8% so far today

They've been flowing the well for over a month. Expecting two pieces of very good news this week.

Anyone who took this advice 12 days ago would be sitting on a 40% profit now. Still time to get in but not much.

XEL now up 54% from when I tipped it.

Am I the only one annoyed by people that do this? No offense intended directly, just something that grates on me.

In other words, "oh you should have listened to me, I'm a share guru"

No, you're a complete random on the internet, no-one in their right mind should have listened to you. Sure, gloat about being 54% up by all means, it's great to hear of people on the forum doing well in the downturn. But don't make it sound like we should regret not listening to you.

 

[Simon]

Massively annoying, easy to say you are right in hindsight but people shouldnt follow tips blindly so verbal, dont be suprised they havent followed you.

Then people rub it in by saying 'You should have followed me' after the event.

Here's one, should have shorted BP before the Gulf of Mexico

 

[gizmoy2k]

Just passed my break even with CNR, looking forward to more to come from here

Next update mid september hopefully.

Almost evens on my other major AVN also, second satellite Hylas 2 launched successfully and is under testing, from here the money from the contracts should start flowing in, more of a slow burner this one though but with a £15 target price, hope to become ISAble next year

Down in EDL despite good news the price wont move until the JORCs come in

 

[silversurfer]

BP was super strong before they messed up, that well leaked so much because it was so valuable and they had done a good job to find it.
I remember in the paper celebrating their deepest ever well like they just landed on the moon.

Anyhow I didnt own any BP. But they were hitting the ceiling (positive but restricted) which is a fair place to say take profits, they didnt sell off massive at first. It was more that they couldnt turn off that big leak.
So even the experts didnt short BP, no one knew. Xcite hit 120 as resistance today

Spoiler

Today BP is nearer to the bottom or floor then a ceiling. In theory, in practise we dont know just I take it as the odds as a bias to a rise in share price.
500 was a ceiling in Feb in a similar fashion, now I would be hoping for 530 and then the news usually matches that. Maybe they sell TNK?

 

[Vanilla]

I'm a big BP fan, bought 5k worth at £3.76 and happily sitting on £800 profit. No rush to sell and sure they can go higher due to nothing other than my magic bowl.

 

[gord]

Yeh, BP is my major holding at the moment, £300 up, but I've held since the incident buying at several points on the way down.

 

[silversurfer]

I bought couple times also on the leak then sold Jan 2011 , then I buy back and hold but usually too optimistically. Bit of a heartbreaker I think but the div is ok, its hard to argue against holding them especially if you are well hedged in your car usage

Range is still negative. 6p was just top of their '11/'12 negative trend, they need to battle on. More volume needed, in a rush one day or cumulatively I guess.
Right this moment, RRL > XEL looks like. target 92 on XEL

 

[Simon]

BP was super strong before they messed up, that well leaked so much because it was so valuable and they had done a good job to find it.
I remember in the paper celebrating their deepest ever well like they just landed on the moon.

Anyhow I didnt own any BP. But they were hitting the ceiling (positive but restricted) which is a fair place to say take profits, they didnt sell off massive at first. It was more that they couldnt turn off that big leak.
So even the experts didnt short BP, no one knew. Xcite hit 120 as resistance today

Spoiler

Today BP is nearer to the bottom or floor then a ceiling. In theory, in practise we dont know just I take it as the odds as a bias to a rise in share price.
500 was a ceiling in Feb in a similar fashion, now I would be hoping for 530 and then the news usually matches that. Maybe they sell TNK?

Yeah I follow BP most as I work for them so have a lot of shares in them via employee schemes. Ive worked for them for nearly 6 years so the tax free 5 yr sharematch shares are ready to sell. Ive moved a few k out into other stocks recently

I remember a few days after the GoM, people were worried about share price when it dropped to 580p. Not many sold then actually, we were in as much of the dark as anyone else. A lot of people piled in at £3 though.

 

[Simon]

I'm a big BP fan, bought 5k worth at £3.76 and happily sitting on £800 profit. No rush to sell and sure they can go higher due to nothing other than my magic bowl.

Pus you get a decent dividend at that price. 4.5pish a quarter so 4.8% divi yield.

 

[verbal]

Am I the only one annoyed by people that do this? No offense intended directly, just something that grates on me.

In other words, "oh you should have listened to me, I'm a share guru"

No, you're a complete random on the internet, no-one in their right mind should have listened to you. Sure, gloat about being 54% up by all means, it's great to hear of people on the forum doing well in the downturn. But don't make it sound like we should regret not listening to you.

1. I'm not a share guru, just a small time private investor/trader.

2. My post was a share tip encouraging people to do their own research and consider investing. Anyone can choose whether to follow the tip or not.

3. The follow-up posts highlighted that the tip was good but that despite the rise i felt it was still worth getting into XEL for a much bigger rise.

4. The whole thread is full of people talking about gains and losses they've made and what shares are good.

 

[verbal]

Massively annoying, easy to say you are right in hindsight but people shouldnt follow tips blindly so verbal, dont be suprised they havent followed you.

Then people rub it in by saying 'You should have followed me' after the event.

Here's one, should have shorted BP before the Gulf of Mexico

It's nothing to do with hindsight. I predicted the rise and then posted again when it started happening. I'm not suprised people didn't follow me, I was just hoping some might. I often read share tips and go and do some research off the back of the tip to see if I'm interested in investing/trading it.

 

[randomshenans]

LON:LRD are doing OK for me at the moment, bought at 223.

I bought Vatukoula Gold Mines yesterday, thought they'd be a good bet with some of the decent projects and that but think they'll still be good for it. Hang in there.

Screwed up CNR, bought 7euros worth, not 700 like an idiot in a rush when they were 113. Obviously my 7 euros is doing well. Grr. Really annoyed.

Norseman Gold I got some in today as well, good reading on them and the range is massive. Bit of a punt, but seemed lowish risk.

LON:NBPO was a tip from a mate of mine, so my Mrs was like yea, and bought some (I know!) but got them at 595 and currently doing nicely at 624.

Not a bad end to the week so far. If you discount GroupOn. Will punt there was, well, wild. I'll see what eventually happens with them anyway, wasn't a lot.

 

[silversurfer]

VGM are selling shares for 50p to the chinese and the market price is 36p, its been 20ish for a while.

Its in the balance if they can take gold out at a lower cost then it sells for, ie. make profit. I think its quite probable they can and it seems a lot safer then a non producing mine especially with the chinese money and apparent support in doing so

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Friday said progress in bringing down U.S. unemployment was too slow and the central bank would act as needed to strengthen the economic recovery.

However, in a speech that suggested the Fed chief is taking seriously concerns about the possible effects of unconventional monetary policy, Bernanke did not explicitly signal any monetary easing was imminent.

That could likely disappoint a nervous Wall Street, which has been bidding up stock prices in recent weeks on expectations the U.S. central bank would launch a new stimulus program soon.

"It is important to achieve further progress, particularly in the labor market," Bernanke said at the Kansas City Fed's annual Jackson Hole symposium. "Taking due account of the uncertainties and limits of its policy tools, the Federal Reserve will provide additional policy accommodation as needed to promote a stronger economic recovery and sustained improvement in labor market conditions in a context of price stability."

That was a somewhat weaker hint of policy easing than the Fed delivered after its July 31-August 1 meeting, when it said it would "closely monitor" incoming data as it pondered whether to ease monetary policy further.

is why gold is spikey today

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/bernanke-may-hint-stimulus-without-050530337.html

 

[silversurfer]

I forgot to mention, there are competitions for Sept starting tomorrow. Free entry, with cash or other prize and I think its good practise also for understanding spreads & general dynamics.
www.stockchallenge.co.uk
http://game.lse.co.uk/


US labor day holiday tomorrow which makes it quiet in theory and afterwards -the start of proper higher volume trading. Up until December when it goes quiet again like this summer has been

 

[Kobi]

I'm currently taking a break from the whole stock thing. Sort of a fingers in my ears while shouting '"la la la, I can't hear you". I'll check on my shares soon. Just don't have the time these days. This is my only source for info. Glad to see some people doing well. Its pretty tough out there!

 

[dowie]

It's nothing to do with hindsight. I predicted the rise and then posted again when it started happening. I'm not suprised people didn't follow me, I was just hoping some might. I often read share tips and go and do some research off the back of the tip to see if I'm interested in investing/trading it.

Why were you hoping some might?

 

[deadlyfredly]

Hi Verbal,

I think perhaps it's the fact you're giving us regular updates on what a genius you are that is getting to people.

Maybe stick to, I like this share or I've just bought xx and then let us know how you did when you sold them. If you're up, we'll be happy for you, if you're down you'll have our commiserations.

We're all fully aware of XEL and some of the posters have been discussing them for a while.

 

[ubersonic]

Hypothetically lets say I want to buy some shares in a company, how do I do it? (was kinda expecting that info on the first page lol).