Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)

[Nerusy]

They are testable though aren't they, just like anything else, and as everything else past performance does not guarantee future results.

The question is, you could apply the critique you applied to him to every poster in this thread, so why confront him but not everybody else here?

I don't mean to offend you but misleading newbies can have negative consequences for them.

I think making newbies think that instead of investing into index they should create their portfolio which statistically won't beat the market is mislead or in simple terms every post in this thread gives newbies a false representation and false hope.

 

[dowie]

They are testable though aren't they

How would you test it and what would you actually be testing - the method or the person claiming to use the method?

The question is, you could apply the critique you applied to him to every poster in this thread, so why confront him but not everybody else here?

I've seen two posters putting up charts with subjective lines drawn on them in this thread and I've questioned both. The other posts seem to either be asking for broker recommendations or "I'm thinking of buying XYZ does anyone else think this is a good idea"

 

[Nerusy]

How would you test it and what would you actually be testing - the method or the person claiming to use the method?

By backtesting it and or out of sample testing/ live test, as you'd do with any strategy. As I said it does not guarantee anything though, nothing in investment is guaranteed.

I've seen two posters putting up charts with subjective lines drawn on them in this thread and I've questioned both. The other posts seem to either be asking for broker recommendations or "I'm thinking of buying XYZ does anyone else think this is a good idea"

Lets take a look at last page

anyone get caught by Ed Miliband's announcement re capping energy prices ? Centrica shares which were just tipping £4 now down to £3.70 ish

Then the time to buy is now.

Useless rumours with no indication that they'll happen in real life or affect any profits.

My SSE shares went down, I don't really care. I'll check again in 5-10 years if I need the money.

This gentleman is implying that it is good time to buy because news has moved the price down, what he is essentially relying on is technical analysis phenomena of overreaction and over selling.

Why exactly did you not call him out, why only people with lines? In my eyes both are subjective (just like absolutely everything in this thread and misleading to a newbie given then none of us will beat the market in the long term unless we have inside info).

 

[dowie]

By backtesting it and or out of sample testing/ live test, as you'd do with any strategy. As I said it does not guarantee anything though, nothing in investment is guaranteed.

How do you back test something you can't define objectively?

 

[Nerusy]

How do you back test something you can't define objectively?

Could you answer my whole post rather than answer things selectively, it is a bit rude of you to ignore other points.

One can define trading rules objectively. To give you an example, when 8sma crossese 16sma lower - enter short and vice versa. It's odd that I have to explain that to you given that you work in the field.

 

[dowie]

Could you answer my whole post rather than answer things selectively, it is a bit rude of you to ignore other points.

The thread is several hundred pages long... I've not picked up on some commentary on some stocks... the thread is full of people chatting about stocks - I'm really not too interested in it...

One can define trading rules objectively. To give you an example, when 8sma crossese 16sma lower - enter short and vice versa. It's odd that I have to explain that to you given that you work in the field.

I don't think you understand the point - a moving average can be defined objectively - someone making a claim about certain moving averages crossing is making a testable claim. Someone subjectively drawing some lines as a result of eyeballing a chart and selecting some points is a bit different...

 

[dowie]

The only opinion I've really put across is that subjective forms of technical analysis such as those presented by the other poster are pretty dubious for obvious reasons - namely they're untestable...

 

[Nerusy]

The thread is several hundred pages long... I've not picked up on some commentary on some stocks... the thread is full of people chatting about stocks - I'm really not too interested in it...

Yet I always see your across many threads criticising anything to do with ta. Not just this thread. You always essentially attack them. Now in my eyes both fundumental and technical analaysis is lolworthy on this forum but I don't think it's fair of you to only attack them, either attack everybody or don't make only ta people feel bad.

I don't think you understand the point - a moving average can be defined objectively - someone making a claim about certain moving averages crossing is making a testable claim. Someone subjectively drawing some lines as a result of eyeballing a chart and selecting some points is a bit different...

Look there are mechanical trading strategies and discretionary strategies. One can base a discretionary strategy on a backtested mechanical one to improve it. For example one can have a mechanical trading strategy entry and exit based on sma but then use discretion as to when to enter or not given the system gives a signal as to avoid fix times, economic release or a rumour whiplash.

Pitchfork can be defined objectively, in fact it can be coded to be identify pitchforks and trade those pitchforks with comply with defined parameters.

Channels, support and resistances can also be coded and defined objectively, in fact any pattern that you may thing is subjective and unreliable can be back tested.

Furthermore, people who trade in this thread overwhelmingly use discretionary " I think this looks nice" approach. So again, if you think "subjective" strategy should be shamed here, then you ought to shame everybody here.

 

[dowie]

Yet I always see your across many threads criticising anything to do with ta. Not just this thread. You always essentially attack them. Now in my eyes both fundumental and technical analaysis is lolworthy on this forum but I don't think it's fair of you to only attack them, either attack everybody or don't make only ta people feel bad.

Its got nothing to do with making people feel bad... and I've not criticised everything to do with TA. I've pointed out why subjective methods are problematic.

 

[Nerusy]

Its got nothing to do with making people feel bad... and I've not criticised everything to do with TA. I've pointed out why subjective methods are problematic.

perhaps some axes might help + some commentary/fluff to go with the magical lines you've drawn

This is what you wrote. This does not look to my like pointing things out, it looks to me like an aggressive comment aimed to ridicule the other poster.

What you could have said: "the lines drawn are subjective, hence making a trading decision based on it seems unreliable to me"[the essence of your comment modified to be non-aggressive]

but the kicker is, that line (which you could have written that would not then create an aggressive argument between you two) should essentially go with every post here. ie everybody's opinion is subjective and should not be reliable to others here but you never critique everybody else.

He has a point, any time he pops up you aggressively attack him but not anybody else.

You want objectivity here? Invest into index and do not touch it, absolutely everything else is subjective.

 

[dowie]

I'm not sure I'd class flippant comments as an 'aggressive attack' ...

Other posters are offering up random irrelevant opinions at most.. not presenting 'analysis'/forecasts in a pseudo-scientific way... I really don't care about someone posting "I'm looking at buying XYZ, what do you people think, if a few random people reassure me by also writing some stuff about XYZ I'll feel better and buy it". Most of these posters are taking some punts on random small cap stuff or are simply investing longer term... the small cap stuff is a punt regardless and the investing in larger companies isn't too harmful... short term trading on the other hand is potentially very harmful.

You seem to be concerned for the other poster - I can assure you its got nothing to do with him personally and I've made similar comments with regards to another poster's charts with subjectively drawn lines.

In other threads I've also got very little respect for religion and am happy to have similar arguments about homeopathy, chiropractors etc... etc...

 

[Nerusy]

I'm not sure I'd class flippant comments as an 'aggressive attack' ...

Other posters are offering up random irrelevant opinions at most.. not presenting 'analysis'/forecasts in a pseudo-scientific way... I really don't care about someone posting "I'm looking at buying XYZ, what do you people think, if a few random people reassure me by also writing some stuff about XYZ I'll feel better and buy it". Most of these posters are taking some punts on random small cap stuff or are simply investing longer term... the small cap stuff is a punt regardless and the investing in larger companies isn't too harmful... short term trading on the other hand is potentially very harmful.

You seem to be concerned for the other poster - I can assure you its got nothing to do with him personally and I've made similar comments with regards to another poster's charts with subjectively drawn lines.

In other threads I've also got very little respect for religion and am happy to have similar arguments about homeopathy, chiropractors etc... etc...

Major investment banks have reports with those subjective lines. I don't think its' fair to compare those lines with alternative medicine which is not endorsed by the medical authority to my knowledge in this country. Besides as the point I already made, trading is not an exact science, it's an art. Or to be blunt, speculative gambling for the most part. This thread is about trading and a such automatically comes with a discretion that these advices will not guarantee anything, this thread is made to discuss "fluff". Trading is based on fluff.

Hence calling fluff on one poster and not other's fluff when the whole thread sole person is to discuss fluff is fluff itself.

Basic point lets stay civil, no need for as you put it, flippant comments. Ye I'm a bit of a hippie and I realize this whole back and forth between us was entirely pointless but I suppose I had the pointless urge to make things better.

 

[ScoTTyBEEE]

Long CAD/USD this morning, need to go out so I'll look at this later. Put some fluff on there for my friend Dowie.

Spoiler

 

[Make]

Anyone who claims that they have a market-beating strategy is a liar. You'd be a billionaire, and famous, like some people who actually can beat the market. Other than that, i think it's great that we are discussing different strategies.

In my opinion that chart seems confusing as hell, and doesn't help anyone. Also I haven't really seen any real "process" on that, so far it's just random trades that you post that are making you a win.. what about all the loss making ones?

For example, I am happy to discuss my opinion about the energy firms earlier there I'm sure I can't beat the market over the long term, but it's still interesting to discuss, and some of us might actually win a bit of extra money with it.

 

[booyaka]

I'm really not too interested in it...

leave the thread then.

I see the troll has arrived in this thread now.

It's been perfectly fine till you arrived mouthing off and getting stuck into people.

Similar thread the other day when people were discussing IFA/pensions etc, and I'm pretty sure you went diving in with your attitude telling people that -

most IFAs are just people flogging packaged products who've passed some basic exams.

"pass the appropriate FCA checks" get over yourself...

Etc - one big troll out to annoy people and generally wreck a perfectly decent thread which has been fine till you arrived in it!

If your not interested or have nothing useful to add, then please don't post.

Any chance of getting back to the subject of the thread???

 

[ScoTTyBEEE]

GBP/USD update, entry posted on previous page. Target hit for 176 pips.

Spoiler

 

[ScoTTyBEEE]

USD/CAD stop moved up to limit risk (now risk stands at 6 pips, remember spread)

Spoiler

 

[jonnyp1993]

i don't know whats gone on in here, but can someone tell me where it started (what page ), so i can read up as im uo for a laugh

 

[Cavallino]

tl;dr = People not agreeing on different trading strategies and questioning the complexity (or simplicity) of said trading strategies.

Mixed with the odd underhanded labelling here and there.

 

[jonnyp1993]

ah ok!, dont think i want to get involved