Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)

[ScoTTyBEEE]

CAD closed for +10, news release in 15 mins and it's too close to the stop for my liking. Trading is not gambling and I don't like to hold over the weekend.

 

[silversurfer]

Unsubstantiated claims of what is essentially advanced tea leaf reading...

There is only two things to agree really. We dont have certainity, we have a list of probabilitys.
We have a market full of conflicting views and every day they must decide on 1 closing price

On this thread it might be best to put large graphs into spoiler tags. The amount of information can be overwhelming, everyone has a different system and perspective

My view of sterling right now is its broken out of its range for the last few years, could prove surprisingly positive if that confirms.
Thats bad for my SIPP funds most likely as they are overseas

It's surely ripe for cost optimisation but the unions could be a bit of a blocker to that.

On MSE a few posties said they will apply to buy more RM shares, as they have first dibs thats quite positive to hear.

CNR recovers 9% today

Spoiler

Barclays Has Plenty of Hard Yards Ahead -- Heard on the Street

By Andrew Peaple Mission partially accomplished. Barclays (BARC.LN) has successfully completed its GBP5.8 billion rights issue, the first step towards meeting regulatory demands that it have qualifying capital equivalent to 3% of its assets by the end of June next year. The bank's shareholders took up nearly 95% of the shares on offer, with the rest sold into the market on Friday. The result is a vote of confidence in Barclays and its peacemaking efforts with the U.K. regulator after several turbulent years. But there is still a long way to go. The rights issue proceeds aren't quite half of the amount needed to raise its leverage ratio to 3% from 2.2% at the end of June. The bank still needs to raise GBP2 billion of contingent capital, bonds that convert into equity at times of stress. It also wants to shrink its assets - the denominator in the leverage ratio - by GBP65 billion-80 billion. Barclays hopes another year of retained earnings will bridge the rest of its GBP12.8 billion capital gap. That ought to be possible, but there are headwinds. The bank revealed weak performance from its investment bank in July and August, mainly thanks to lower earnings from its key fixed income, currencies and commodities business. Barclays' full third quarter FICC revenue could be down by 30%-50% year-on-year, Citi estimates. That points to Barclays' broader issue: whether it has yet planned to reduce the size of its investment bank sufficiently. Barclays' return on equity remains weak: it doesn't now expect its RoE to exceed its cost of equity until 2016. The main drag on its returns remains the investment bank. During the boom years, Barclays was able to juice its investment bank returns using leverage, but that is no longer an option. The bank should look to reduce its balance sheet by another GBP150 billion-200 billion, UBS suggests. Meantime, Barclays still faces regulatory uncertainty, including probes into its capital raising activities at the height of the global financial crisis. It trades at 0.9 times tangible book value, a 34% discount to U.K. peers like Lloyds (LLOY.LN) and HSBC (HSBA.LN), according to Berenberg Bank. There are plenty of hard yards left for Barclays.

Barc rights

 

[dowie]

Major investment banks have reports with those subjective lines. I don't think its' fair to compare those lines with alternative medicine which is not endorsed by the medical authority to my knowledge in this country.

You're not aware that the NHS runs homeopathy hospitals?

I know that major investment banks publish technical analysis, I can't recall any specific 'pitchfork' stuff though I'm not going to doubt that some bank somewhere has sent out some 'analysis' containing it. It is more PR marketing than anything else... Having said that you might well see some charts with technical indicators on on some commodities desks... less likely with rates etc.. you'd likely get laughed at.

The comparison with alternative medicine is fine - the lack of an evidence base for a lot of techniques, the cherry picked examples and untestable claims found in a large portion of the popular literature surrounding technical analysis. I'm not saying everything within the broad field of 'technical analysis' is bunk but a large portion likely is... certainly needs more research as at the moment its just a field packed full of charlatans and snake oil salesmen... If you've not got a scientific background then the book 'Evidence based Technical analysis' is probably worth a read... Unfortunately in terms of research into TA it is lacking a bit - Andrew Lo at MIT is worth looking into.

Hence calling fluff on one poster and not other's fluff when the whole thread sole person is to discuss fluff is fluff itself.

I actually recommended that he add some fluff... if you notice his post was considerably lacking in said fluff/commentary - just a one liner, a chart with many lines on it but lacking even axes...

 

[dowie]

I see the troll has arrived in this thread now.

Not sure you really understand the word... but having a different opinion doesn't constitute trolling...

It's been perfectly fine till you arrived mouthing off and getting stuck into people.

Till I arrived? - there is a post by me on the second page of this thread... were now up to rather more pages than that...

Any chance of getting back to the subject of the thread???

The subject of the thread is being discussed... namely short term trading - not getting butthurt because someone said they'd be worried about most IFAs managing funds in a different thread or calling 'troll' because I'm skeptical about some forms of technical analysis.

I think some skepticism is fairly justifiable, I don't think that spurious claims should be left unchallenged there are people very new to this reading the thread as evidenced by the posts requesting broker recommendations etc...

Its fairly reasonable to point out that not everyone agrees with it and in fact a lot of people are very skeptical of it to the point where a lot of it is considered a complete joke...

There is also a more serious an example of why this sort of thing is dangerous from the OP himself.... read the OP then go read his other posts - he was under the illusion that he had a method of beating the market... later on he's posted on here regarding job hunting. Questioning this sort of stuff is a good thing... unsubstantiated claims like:

Basically the 'forks' have a mathematical probability of 80% that the middle line will be hit.

are pretty irresponsible

 

[Nerusy]

That's disappointing news on nhs homeopathy. Wasted money for essentially placebo effect.

I don't get your position, when you say not all ta is bunk, if we go by usefulness then both fundy and al t a are bunk since they don't offer the edge in what is regarded by practitioners as semi strong efficient market. If we go by usefulness of fundy and ta of explaining why price moves a certain way then both obviously have merit, quantitative and psychological explanation for the price action we create.

 

[dowie]

I'm being open minded. I didn't say that not all TA is bunk I said that I'm not saying it is all bunk... Most of it likely is bunk but I'm open to the idea that some areas have some merit. In the broad sense it, in theory, encompass anything involving prediction using price alone so I'm not going to dismiss everything that might fall within what is essentially a very broad label. I'm definitely going to question the more 'woo' like claims - especially anything that leaves it to the practitioner to make a subjective judgement as to where to place the special lines etc...

 

[Vanilla]

General question - i'm having trouble getting hold of my broker due to the RM IPO.

So, I have shares in my ISA under company XYZ. I've left it late and want to get in on the RM thing using my ISA.

Now, when you sell shares it takes a few days to clear (3 days?). So....

If I sell my shares in XYZ but I have enough cash in my account to cover my ISA again can this be used to buy RM shares before the other money 'clears'. I feel as i'm ok because anything after selling my shares is just balancing up....

Basically if I sell XYZ tomorrow will me ISA account be ready to take on RM IPO shares?

Opinions?

 

[gizmoy2k]

^ Id say depends on the broker.

III let me reinvest any sale immediately but you're right its 3 days before it makes it to my account if I withdraw, I did have work shares with computershare before and im sure it was the same so i think this is how most brokers operate

On an investing note, things are picking up on CNR again which I did Bed & Isa. A magazine published it as a potential takeover target last week and this month further resource updates are due. Hopefully exciting times

 

[Marky]

Hey all,

I've been tracking Tesla Motors for a little while now - I've got some money I'd like to invest in the stock market and so I would like to put some money into TSLA.

However, I've never done anything like this before - is there a beginners guide or video or something I can watch that can explain how it all works in laymans terms.

Any advice or tips you could give me I would be very grateful

I currently bank with Barclays, is this something I can do through them? Or do I need to open an account somewhere else? Also, as it's a US stock, is it right that I need to file some sort of US form?

 

[silversurfer]

The beginners route would be to use unit trusts or better still speak to an IFA (not a bank) about what he thinks is suitable. If an IFA screws up you can get redress vs their professional body etc. Going solo is for expendable amounts at least to start

Barc deal shares but would need to sign you up, its surprisingly easy really but TSLA isnt cheap are they trading on 100 years earnings or similar. How about Ford at 11 years profits and 2% yield

potential takeover target

gold is weak still Im told. My tea leaves are saying CNR no stronger then two weeks ago

Basically if I sell XYZ tomorrow will me ISA account be ready to take on RM IPO shares?

every nominee broker ive dealt with allows that but the IPO is very soon to close

Wasted money for essentially placebo effect.

Funny thing is that could save money vs other solutions. Stress is a major health risk and thats all in the mind too in theory
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biofeedback

Spoiler

Declining volume in a negative market is a double negative ie. hidden positive

Lots of charts from the time of USA downgrade. Most stocks rose, ATK doubled so pleased on that one and Tesco rose (bottomed out) but as thought was ultimately negative longer term (Im hopeful of more rise now). BP is dismal, nothing doing

 

[Dr House]

What are your thoughts on Royal mail, what are the chances I will get a LOT of share if I apply?

I sold up LMI. RIO and BHP about a week ago

 

[silversurfer]

BHP is not looking stellar but I cant sell that, hopefully Im right it can pay its 4% div.
RM I may try for but I reckon its oversubbed so my guess is it'll dole out min amounts. Unfortunately pension funds have the power to suck up most shares and the gov promised any left over to posties mostly.

Thats just my guess, my last IPO was SL. I applied for more and got it, the share price fell after IPO


http://www.valuewalk.com/2013/10/jim-chanos-tesla-motors-inc-tsla/

^^ He is a big guy, I think he shorted Enron

Advanced Micro Devices: A Path To Profitability http://seekingalpha.com/a/113bg

 

[Dr House]

Thanks, I am going to put in for as much as I can and see if I get any.

 

[Vanilla]

Thanks, I am going to put in for as much as I can and see if I get any.

Same!

 

[413x]

how does the RM share issue work if there are more shares requested than available?
How do they allocate by priority?

 

[silversurfer]

Apparently the gov site will send a certificate, then I can sell anywhere sounds ideal

Allocate by size is my guess. If some company steps up and says dont worry we'll be taking half a billion then I reckon its a done deal. They wont be scaling those guys back so it'll be the smaller buyers who mop up the scraps

Spoiler

1. A 'Certificated Sale' done with someone like TD Direct Investing.

See the video Trading Demo at: http://www.tddirectinvesting.co.uk/tools-research/tools/trading-demo/.

Look out for the term in the video when the box opens that says "T+10(Certificate Sale)"

2. Opening an account with an 'Execution Only' dealer such as http://www.x-o.co.uk

See: http://www.x-o.co.uk/how_to_use.htm
Look at example No.5. "How do I transfer in stock that I hold in the form of certificates?"

trading demo vid

 

[MF2015]

Can anyone recommend the cheapest broker for day trading with Level 2 access?

 

[dowie]

Can anyone recommend the cheapest broker for day trading with Level 2 access?

for daytrading what exactly?

For UK equities you'd likely want a CFD wrapper - Interactive Brokers offer this as do IG markets and FP Markets. IB could be useful as you've got access to a lot of instruments from the same account.

 

[MF2015]

for daytrading what exactly?

For UK equities you'd likely want a CFD wrapper - Interactive Brokers offer this as do IG markets and FP Markets. IB could be useful as you've got access to a lot of instruments from the same account.

Vanilla shares, I'm not looking at SB or CFDs. I used to use Interactive Investor when I was last trading and looking to get back into it now.

 

[dowie]

US or UK? You're aware of stamp duty right?