*Russia’s Defence Ministry: Our Kalibr Missiles Struck Arms Depot With Weapons From US and Europe in Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Region — IFAX
*Russia’s Defence Ministry: Our Air Force Destroyed 59 Ukrainian Military Targets Overnight — TASS
*Russia’s Defence Ministry: The Russian Army Eliminated More Than 120 Ukrainian Nationalists and Destroyed 35 Armored Combat Vehicles
*Turkish Defense Minister Akar: Turkey Hopes That the Presidents of Russia and Ukraine Will Meet in the Next Few Days
*US Secretary of Defense Austin: While Russian Troops Pour Fire Into Eastern and Southern Ukraine, and Russia Cuts Off Gas Supplies to Poland and Bulgaria, We Should Supply Kyiv With More Heavy Weapons
Most days i'm seeing updates of "Russia is making small advances but..." Assuming this is a war of attrition(I.e not over by 2022) and Russia's main gameplan is just to throw bodies and resources at it until it gets what it wants. Doesn't that mean that eventually Ukraine will fall. not because of lack of ammo but because it has run out of soldiers to use them? I'm just thinking that much of the analysis done by commentators in the west is assuming Russia actually cares about the cost in human, equipment and money terms... But.. What if it doesn't?
There is a point Russia has to fully mobilise their economy, society, etc. towards a war effort to sustain the attrition and most commentators think (or like to console themselves with the notion) that Russia won't cross that point. Personally I think the notions, even from people with very advanced understandings of economy etc., that Russia can't afford this war, doesn't have the economy or industry and too reliant on Western components, concerns for how hollowed out economically the country might end up in the longer run, etc. to be naive.
EDIT: Ukraine is a long way from throwing their available man power at this so far though - they've been trying to avoid using personnel without experience as much as possible to simplify things on the battlefield. Only a fraction of those who've volunteered (domestically) have been put to combat duties, territorial forces are only something like 30% deployed to fighting roles (though many more are used in support roles). Two substantial sections of their armed forces were held west of Kyiv for most of this war so far to prevent Kyiv being properly encircled or losing their western connection to Europe/NATO - which they seem to have committed some of now into the fight in the east.
However I think we are only at the very beginning still of this conflict unless Russia backs down of its own accord.
The fractious press conference saw Mr Guterres say while he understood Russia has "many grievances," there is "one thing that is true and obvious and that no arguments can change".
He continued: "We have no Ukrainian troops in the territory of the Russian Federation, but we have Russian troops in the territory of the Ukrainian Federation."
That the UN general talk to Russia is surely appropriate - that's their job - and I can't see anything but as clear a condemnation of Russia as the UN can give in the quoted text.
*Interior Ministry of Moldova’s Breakaway Region of Transdniestria: Detected Drones Overnight That It Says Were Launched From Ukraine
*Interior Ministry of Moldova’s Breakaway Region of Transdniestria: Shots Were Fired Towards Cobasna Village From Territory Of Ukraine
Russian state media desensitising the population to the threat of nuclear war and being vaporised by saying "It is what it is" and "We all die someday". Pretty scary stuff
Does anybody here think that we (NATO) will ultimately get dragged into this conflict at some point in the near future?
As much as I think we stay on the sidelines supplying weapons and aid to Ukraine whilst pointing and laughing as Russia gets bogged down, it seems clear to me that Russia aren't just going to give up and walk away from this. I'm starting to wonder whether despite their losses and poor performance, they'll just keep throwing people at the problem until Ukraine caves in, then they'll maybe start looking at other places to push into.
It feels very frustrating trying to understand exactly what the future holds, it just seems that this thing isn't even close to be decided..
Does anybody here think that we (NATO) will ultimately get dragged into this conflict at some point in the near future?
As much as I think we stay on the sidelines supplying weapons and aid to Ukraine whilst pointing and laughing as Russia gets bogged down, it seems clear to me that Russia aren't just going to give up and walk away from this. I'm starting to wonder whether despite their losses and poor performance, they'll just keep throwing people at the problem until Ukraine caves in, then they'll maybe start looking at other places to push into.
It feels very frustrating trying to understand exactly what the future holds, it just seems that this thing isn't even close to be decided..
NATO will not get involved unless a member state is attacked, it's not the world police nor should it act as though it is. There's a world of difference between providing defense equipment and putting boots on the ground. Even if the worst where to happen and nukes are launched into Ukraine, I still doubt there'd be direct intervention.
I'd still like to think it won't really expand into a wider European conflict, but I certainly think the only realistic conclusion to all this is Ukraine loosing territory, either through capitulation via peace talks or Russia just brute forcing it into reality.
As much as I think we stay on the sidelines supplying weapons and aid to Ukraine whilst pointing and laughing as Russia gets bogged down, it seems clear to me that Russia aren't just going to give up and walk away from this. I'm starting to wonder whether despite their losses and poor performance, they'll just keep throwing people at the problem until Ukraine caves in, then they'll maybe start looking at other places to push into.
Pretty much how I see it - unless Ukraine caves, something changes internally in Russia like the government being overthrown which seems unlikely, or the Russian war machine is utterly spent it looks like Russia will just keep throwing bodies at the problem. Russia/Putin do not appear to be at all interested in an off-ramp as some like to think. I don't think they care about the long term economic consequences either - partly I suspect there is a belief there, realistic or not, they have the clout to bring everyone else down to their level if it comes to it.
We are at war have been from the start...it will escalate. Moldova perhaps being the next flash point and whilst the news isn't necessarily paying attention there, it's not a coincidence that many world leaders have been visiting the country over the last month.
I think it's inevitable. The amount of resources the west has poured in to this means that we can't just walk away now. We have to win. The more we win, the more desperate Putin will get. Desperate men do desperate things.
Past 2hrs:
*NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg: NATO Allies Provided $8 Billion Military Aid To Ukraine
*NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg: Finland, Sweden Welcome To NATO If They Apply
*NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg: Finnish, Swedish Forces Fulfill NATO Standards
*NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg: Finland And Sweden Could Join NATO Quickly
*NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg: In The Context Of The Situation In Ukraine, NATO Is Considering Increasing Support For Georgia And Moldova
*NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg: (in A Joint Statement With European Parliament President Roberta Mezzola) NATO Believes That It Is Important To Provide Political And Practical Support To Georgia And Moldova In The Context Of The Situation In Ukraine, And NATO Is Consider Increasing This Support
*German Lower House Approves Petition To Deliver Heavy Arms To Ukraine
*Ukraine Can Cover Its Energy Needs For Now - Senior Parliamentarian
*Belarus President Lukashenko: Minsk Is Willing To Provide Any Equipment To Russia, Especially If Some Western Companies Withdraw From The Russian Market
*Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Zakharova: Russia Will Respond To All Measures, Including "Stupid Measures."
*Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Zakharova: Russia Cannot Be Removed From The UN Security Council Because There Is No Such Procedure
*Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Zakharova: Ukraine Has Launched Attacks On Russian Targets, And Russia Will Respond Harshly To Such Provocations
*Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Zakharova: Since The Start Of The Special Military Operation, About 7,000 Mercenaries From More Than 60 Countries Have Arrived In Ukraine
*Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Zakharova: Weapons Supplied By The West To Ukraine May Fall Into The Hands Of Terrorists
Past 1hr:
*UK: Ukraine Can Attack Russian Logistics, Unlikely To Use Its Weapons
*Japan Prime Minister Fumio Kishida: Japan Will Step Up Support for Ukraine As Well As Imposing Strong Sanctions Through Cooperation With Countries Including Germany
*Russian Presidential Press Secretary Peskov, Commenting On Remarks On Arming Ukraine From UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss, Says Giving Kyiv Heavy Weapons Would Threaten Europe's Security
*Russian Presidential Press Secretary Peskov, Asked On Elon's Musk's Purchase Of Twitter, Says It Doubts Western Social Media Are Capable Of Reflecting Different Points Of View
*Russian Presidential Press Secretary Peskov Accuses Twitter, Without Presenting Evidence, Of Censorship And Of Distorting And Manipulating Information
*Russian Presidential Press Secretary Peskov: Let's See What New Ownership Of Twitter Brings
*Russian Foreign Intelligence Director Naryshkin: Washington and Warsaw Are Drawing Up Plans for the Latter to Establish Military-Political Control Over “Historic Territories” In Ukraine
'The map below is the latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 28 April 2022'
I don't think they care about the long term economic consequences either - partly I suspect there is a belief there, realistic or not, they have the clout to bring everyone else down to their level if it comes to it.
Yeah this is the thing that I find interesting, when the west does it's calculations in terms of trying to understand how Russia will react, or what they'll do - they almost always seem to be wrong. The things that the West values, like stability, economic power and influence just don't seem to resonate with Russia, they just don't seem to really care about perception, even in a globalised world where everybody is connected.
I think it's inevitable. The amount of resources the west has poured in to this means that we can't just walk away now. We have to win. The more we win, the more desperate Putin will get. Desperate men do desperate things.
It's frightening to think about isn't it, I mean it's really starting to frighten me if I'm honest - the idea of somebody in control of a planet-killing nuclear arsenal is basically just a petulant child, especially worse due to his age and the impact that will have on his decision making and ability to rationalise.
At the same time, we can't just let him get away with walking into other countries and smashing them up, whilst using lies that they created as an excuse.
I'm a bit worried again of the whole Putin backed into a corner, nothing to lose, mindset.
6 more months of this and we'll be knee deep in shortages and a lot of mainland Europe starving for fuels.
Let alone the suffering of 3rd world and African nations.....
Would be the point of not following this to it's conclusion of cutting the head off the Putin snake ? Other than nuclear war....lol
It's frightening to think about isn't it, I mean it's really starting to frighten me if I'm honest - the idea of somebody in control of a planet-killing nuclear arsenal is basically just a petulant child, especially worse due to his age and the impact that will have on his decision making and ability to rationalise.
At the same time, we can't just let him get away with walking into other countries and smashing them up, whilst using lies that they created as an excuse.
It is kind of worrying - my nephew (just a kid with little interest in current events or politics) yesterday came out with "we just have to shoot Putin in the head and this will all be over" then went back to playing with his toys - that screwed with my head a bit to be honest.
Last few hours lot of Russian air force, national guard and presidential fleet flights including outbound flights from locations where supposedly top officials are bunkered*. Not sure what that is about. Something in the wind - combined with a lot of transport traffic in and out of Kaliningrad in the last 24 hours there seems to be something going on but I have no idea what.
Also several international Russian government flights including Turkey and IIRC Dubai (or at least somewhere close to that).
* Wild assumption but possibly sending deputies to deal with the political situation brewing up over war crimes.
Lots changed since then. But overall Russia has spent the last few weeks going through preparations for whatever - likely the longer run of this situation while the West generally is looking far more short term.
Like Efour said - things are likely going to get a lot grimmer before they get better, especially if the West and others don't coalesce around the situation to solve the problems for everyone in a way we've never seen before.
The bloke in this call is repeating verbatim what you see on conspiracy websites/far right fringe websites.
They all make the same stupid comments, when you ask them these questions. If you happen to keep tabs on these kinds of places its so easy to see.
These are the types who will "both sides" they refuse to acknowledge Putin/Russia is wrong in their aggression because their partisan politics won't let them. Its even worse in America.
Its utterly horrifying the level of mental gymnastics people will go to. People who used to very loudly shout about free speech and patriotism, screaming how they hate the west and Putin is justified. Its actual BRAIN ROT.
I think we need to at least toughen up our language to Russia.
Our none replies to Russia's rhetoric is being seen more and more as bluffing. We're not acting like a superpower. We're tempting Russia to strike us. That is why Russia is getting more confident to name us as a target.
I think it's inevitable. The amount of resources the west has poured in to this means that we can't just walk away now. We have to win. The more we win, the more desperate Putin will get. Desperate men do desperate things.
More so the comments made by the US that in order to win the war Russia has to be weakened so it cannot do this again, they probably should have kept quiet on that part even though it was obvious this is their aim
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