Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

[Mr Jack]

Replace Putin with what, if that's your point?

I don't think Putin is getting replaced. At least unless he actually does this:

I believe that they will go fully into a nationwide mobilisation, and as such the war will go on for years.

Full nationwide mobilisation is going to be even more of a problem for Russia, the setup needed for it was dismantled after the fall of the Soviet Union. They don't have the training facilities any more, and creating a large body of armed, angry people who don't want to go and pointlessly die is exactly how you get a revolution (see the thread from Kamil Galeev linked above).

I dunno, I think the most likely outcome is a war that rumbles on in the East for years, but I don't think Russia is going to go mass mobilisation to support it. Instead, I think they will dig in and try and keep the captured territory, link Crimea with the Donetsk and Luhansk, and keep fighting until Ukraine accepts the loss of territory in return for a ceasefire. However, I think a climbdown is also plausible, abandon the expansion of territory, hold on to Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk, and claim the "Special Operation" achieved its aims.

 

[Nate75]

"I dunno, I think the most likely outcome is a war that rumbles on in the East for years, but I don't think Russia is going to go mass mobilisation to support it."

Fair point. Mine is I don't see any other outcome than the longevity of this.

And that's catastrophic.

 

[Rroff]

Russia is going to have to go to some level of mobilisation to sustain this war - rumbling on for years will quickly deplete their war chest and a lot can't be replaced without some level of military, industrial and civilian mobilisation to replace stuff they've previously sourced from abroad, etc.

EDIT: The other option is in less than 6 months from now Russia is having to contemplate going all in or fully retreating.

 

[Nate75]

Russia is going to have to go to some level of mobilisation to sustain this war - rumbling on for years will quickly deplete their war chest and a lot can't be replaced without some level of military, industrial and civilian mobilisation to replace stuff they've previously sourced from abroad, etc.

Couldn't agree more and imo, this is what is going to happen.

 

[Rroff]

Couldn't agree more and imo, this is what is going to happen.

The other problem is the longer this rumbles on, the harder conditions are for Russians, the more they are going to forget what things were like and blame the West for their troubles which will increase the numbers willing to fight.

 

[I_M_Weasel]

I'm not sure what Russia would do with a large mobilisation - they can't logistically support what they have in the field already and more soldiers to feed, fuel and arm would just add to the logistic weight.

 

[Mr Jack]

Russia is going to have to go to some level of mobilisation to sustain this war - rumbling on for years will quickly deplete their war chest and a lot can't be replaced without some level of military, industrial and civilian mobilisation to replace stuff they've previously sourced from abroad, etc.

A declaration of war, yes. A pivot to a war economy, yes. Full mobilisation, i.e. calling up millions of conscripts, no.

 

[Rroff]

I'm not sure what Russia would do with a large mobilisation - they can't logistically support what they have in the field already and more soldiers to feed, fuel and arm would just add to the logistic weight.

They'd need to go in a very general sense North Korea style - a war economy, ramping up industry, building up the infrastructure to support a large mobilisation of forces - it would take time and many aspects are prohibitive or don't do the country favours in the long run. technically bankrupt them, but that won't necessarily stop them doing it or at least trying.

 

[Bluecube]

Israel have thier own war to fight.

My point is they will not get involved with this war.

It may give Israel an incentive to target the Russian military in Syria though. All perfectly covertly…

 

[Terminal_Boy]

West have blown through the ready stock launches of kit - Stinger wont restart production until next year (one reason why the new UK Martlett is being sent over from IOC stocks); however - production is restarting and Russia are still losing troops and equipment daily.By August, they will have lost 50% of the entire equipment, and if the OSINT is accurate, T64`s are being prepped as are T55`s to make up for losses - T90M (the very latest kit) are now being lost in Ukraine.

If i was Russia i would be cranking out active defence systems and testing them in the field, right now.

Who’s going to crew these T64s and T55s being dragged off the scrap heaps? The surviving Russian tank crews currently in Ukraine don’t seem to have much of an idea how to use their tanks effectively, so the 2nd tier of reservists aren’t going to be a crowd of Michael Whitmans, are they?

 

[Rroff]

and if the OSINT is accurate, T64`s are being prepped as are T55`s to make up for losses

This may be in relation to trying to hire retired soldiers and so on in the 40-60 age range to use to control territory Russia has captured (so as to free up other forces to frontline duty) - intended to deal with insurrection, etc. rather than front line fighting.

 

[Mr Jack]

Who’s going to crew these T64s and T55s being dragged off the scrap heaps? The surviving Russian tank crews currently in Ukraine don’t seem to have much of an idea how to use their tanks effectively, so the 2nd tier of reservists aren’t going to be a crowd of Michael Whitmans, are they?

Russia still has large bodies of trained servicemen (I don't think Russia enlists women?), it's just that they are deployed elsewhere as defensive forces. It would be possible, if Putin wanted to risk it, to move these soldiers to Ukraine and backfill these roles with new recruits/reservists who can be trained up more slowly away from the front.

 

[GGizmo]

I would like to see some of our leaders keeping the door of communication open with Putin, if its not already happening. When people feel they are backed in to a corner they will be vindictive. If we give him a way out, to de-escalate the situation without losing too much face (if any) then its a win win for everyone.

I personally don't believe Putin is in full control of the military. A lot of it appears to be propaganda. The fact is without nukes Russia would have been steamrolled within weeks of the conflict starting. These are people living in the past. But the reality on the ground is quite different.

 

[XeNoN89]

I would like to see some of our leaders keeping the door of communication open with Putin, if its not already happening. When people feel they are backed in to a corner they will be vindictive. If we give him a way out, to de-escalate the situation without losing too much face (if any) then its a win win for everyone.

I personally don't believe Putin is in full control of the military. A lot of it appears to be propaganda. The fact is without nukes Russia would have been steamrolled within weeks of the conflict starting. These are people living in the past. But the reality on the ground is quite different.

Communication with Putin is pointless, western leaders tried for months when they knew what he was planning to do. He will just string them along and continue to do whatever he wants.

 

[Hades]

I would like to see some of our leaders keeping the door of communication open with Putin, if its not already happening. When people feel they are backed in to a corner they will be vindictive. If we give him a way out, to de-escalate the situation without losing too much face (if any) then its a win win for everyone.

It really needs to be a deal brokered by a nation more friendly to Russia. There isn't much point in any NATO or EU country trying to broker peace. I would like to see China or India step up a bit more and try to bring about a deal.

 

[Harlequin]

I would like to see some of our leaders keeping the door of communication open with Putin, if its not already happening. When people feel they are backed in to a corner they will be vindictive. If we give him a way out, to de-escalate the situation without losing too much face (if any) then its a win win for everyone.

I personally don't believe Putin is in full control of the military. A lot of it appears to be propaganda. The fact is without nukes Russia would have been steamrolled within weeks of the conflict starting. These are people living in the past. But the reality on the ground is quite different.

Park HMS Vanguard in the Baltic sea and conduct missile drills.

 

[bris]

Putin will die in the operating theatre some time after the 9th. That's my prediction, updated from my last prediction which, erm never happened.

Make enough predictions and ones bound to be correct, right?

 

[CapitalOne]

Putin will die in the operating theatre some time after the 9th. That's my prediction, updated from my last prediction which, erm never happened.

Make enough predictions and ones bound to be correct, right?

Bristrodamus

 

[Hotwired]

Park HMS Vanguard in the Baltic sea and conduct missile drills.

There's probably a reason the subs go the other side of the world off the florida coast and not next to russia when they do that.

 

[Harlequin]

There's probably a reason the subs go the other side of the world off the florida coast and not next to russia when they do that.

But they dont.... , only at the Laurentian Abyssal Plain