Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

[Hagar]

Probs be more of that if they’re aiming to grab and hold a chunk of the east + south east. Ukraine is hoping to go in the offensive in a couple of months but I guess Russia might want to hold ground and try to scare off any international support, push for a settlement involving Ukraine giving up the chunk of territory Russia holds at that point.

Nobody can allow that. They will come back for Moldova or the baltic states or for more of Ukraine as they destabilise further the new border areas.
This is the Spanish civil war rewrote. A preliminary anti fascist fight with supranational dimensions. If Putin wins this round then the world or our part of it is in for a decade of hurt.

 

[dowie]

Nobody can allow that. They will come back for Moldova or the baltic states or for more of Ukraine as they destabilise further the new border areas.
This is the Spanish civil war rewrote. A preliminary anti fascist fight with supranational dimensions. If Putin wins this round then the world or our part of it is in for a decade of hurt.

Yup, though France, Germany and Italy would probs want to go with it. The baltic states, US, UK, Scandinavian countries etc.. would not be too happy with it at all.

Things could get tense though if/when Russia does decide it's taken enough or whatever goals it's got in mind have been achieved and pushed for a peace settlement whereas Ukraine pushes for further support to go on the offensive and retake areas.

 

[Custor]

Severodonetsk …. withdraw or get cut off? Never easy to fight in a salient. Russians have finally learned how to maximise their strengths.

 

[Freddie1980]

Probs be more of that if they’re aiming to grab and hold a chunk of the east + south east. Ukraine is hoping to go in the offensive in a couple of months but I guess Russia might want to hold ground and try to scare off any international support, push for a settlement involving Ukraine giving up the chunk of territory Russia holds at that point.

Putin has played all his cards bar nukes and the world has finally woken up to the threat that he poses. The west and NATO nations want to see Russia de-fanged and Ukraine wants all of it's land back. Any ceasefire or peace agreement that involves giving up land is a non starter; Zelensky has said as much he won't be giving up land and for Putin he needs to get to the Transnistria region of Moldova at a minimum (the rivers and natural terrain effectively shortens Russia's boarders as they only have to guard the bridges over the waterways) before he will even consider any serious talks.

 

[MagicBoy]

With that logic Russia can invade the whole of Europe and beyond.

No. Most of the rest of Europe is in NATO, plus Finland and Sweden are joining. Russia dare not provoke a NATO member. Go read up on Article 5.

 

[Freddie1980]

Severodonetsk …. withdraw or get cut off? Never easy to fight in a salient. Russians have finally learned how to maximise their strengths.

It is a big risk but even if they did get cut off I tend to think with the weapons going in and reinforcements I don't think it will stay cut off for very long. Equally as Russia pushes around the sides there leaving themselves open for counter attacks from units coming in from the west. If Ukraine could somehow retake Poponsa that could give them a big edge due to it's elevation but that might be a fight for a latter day.

 

[dowie]

Putin has played all his cards bar nukes and the world has finally woken up to the threat that he poses. The west and NATO nations want to see Russia de-fanged and Ukraine wants all of it's land back. Any ceasefire or peace agreement that involves giving up land is a non starter; Zelensky has said as much he won't be giving up land and for Putin he needs to get to the Transnistria region of Moldova at a minimum (the rivers and natural terrain effectively shortens Russia's boarders as they only have to guard the bridges over the waterways) before he will even consider any serious talks.

I wouldn't be so sure about that tbh.. he might well push for it once he's got what he wants in the East, ultimately no one knows for sure what his goals are or what he'd settle for, it seems like early on they were very ambitious and involved toppling the government and taking a big chunk of the country offering chunks to Hungary & Poland, they've seemingly been scaled back a bit now and might well have been further too. It's not just the nuke issues, that's always the ultimate risk if things escalate but there are plenty of escalation risks here if Russia does get to the point where they want to hold what they've got and try to get the West to back off/push for a settlement.

 

[Freddie1980]

I wouldn't be so sure about that tbh.. he might well push for it once he's got what he wants in the East, ultimately no one knows for sure what his goals are or what he'd settle for, it seems like early on they were very ambitious and involved toppling the government and taking a big chunk of the country offering chunks to Hungary & Poland, they've seemingly been scaled back a bit now and might well have been further too. It's not just the nuke issues, that's always the ultimate risk if things escalate but there are plenty of escalation risks here if Russia does get to the point where they want to hold what they've got and try to get the West to back off/push for a settlement.

There's always a chance the west goes soft but in all honesty were too far down the rabbit hole to pull back now and if we did it would send the wrong message to every psychopathic despot across the globe that they can do pretty much what they want. As for Putin he can push for talks all he wants but I know from speaking to my family they won't stand for anything less then a complete withdrawal by Russian forces and from what Zelensky has been saying he feels the same way, so long as the west supplies him with money and weapons Ukraine won't give up.

In the best case scenario the war becomes to costly for Russia and pulls back to Russia and leaves to seperties forces in the east to face the music much like the USSR did in Afghanistan.

 

[StriderX]

I think people need to realise that battles will be lost and especially so if trying to 'win' a battle will cost the war.

I'm sure in retrospect pumping the country full of artillery and vehicles might have allowed them to save these battles, but they have to work with what they have for now.

 

[dowie]

There's always a chance the west goes soft but in all honesty were too far down the rabbit hole to pull back now and if we did it would send the wrong message to every psychopathic despot across the globe that they can do pretty much what they want.

Oh don't get me wrong here, it's not the risk of the west going soft that is most worrying, I don't think the west will (save for the likes of France, Germany, Italy etc..) it's more the heightened escalation risk I'm commenting on that might occur if/when Putin decides he's got as much as he's going to get but Ukraine wants to (for very good reason) go on the offensive and take it back.

 

[Sankari]

Kissinger is now arguing that Ukraine must give up all hope of defeating Putin and make peace with him instead, even if it means ceding territory. The absolute gall of the man!

 

[arknor]

Crazy stuff being said on Russian State media:. "Either we win, or humanity losses". Basically saying else we use nukes. They really amping their sabre rattling game.

whos saying it though? they probably take daily mail articles in Russia and act like they represent us too, or some other weirdos viewpoint

 

[Rroff]

Kissinger is now arguing that Ukraine must give up all hope of defeating Putin and make peace with him instead, even if it means ceding territory. The absolute gall of the man!

I wonder if the motivation is wanting the inconvenience to go away whatever it costs anyone else or coming from a pro-Russian perspective. Nothing good will come of it.

Or maybe labouring under the delusion that Putin actually is looking for an off-ramp still.

 

[Hagar]

I wonder if the motivation is wanting the inconvenience to go away whatever it costs anyone else or coming from a pro-Russian perspective. Nothing good will come of it.

Or maybe labouring under the delusion that Putin actually is looking for an off-ramp still.

Well he got Nixon out of Vietnam, but it wasn't very well negotiated. He left an awful lot of people to the Viet Cong.

 

[Rroff]

Well he got Nixon out of Vietnam, but it want very well negotiated. He left an awful lot of people to the Viet Cong.

Though he mentions concerns for longer term stability if the war is taken to Russia and the potential for an escalation in that kind of circumstances raising the risks for Europe as a whole - I don't think conceding to Russia in this current situation will avoid that either, maybe delay maybe.

I think too many see Russia's government like a Western government when the reality is that especially the last few years they've moved much closer to that of a cartel or mafia and don't care who dies for their ends.

 

[dowie]

When something happens in South Central Ukraine nothing happens it's just another general dead...

Or rather a retired one this time apparently flying fast jets for Wagner group:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1529129070650335233

A bit odd to retire as a general and then take a contracting job doing something you perhaps ought to have given up (at least operationally) a few ranks ago in the military.

 

[Rroff]

Doesn't seem to be going well for Ukraine in the Donbas region - though as before I think their overall strategy take into account not meeting Russia head on.

 

[Werewolf]

I think a lot of fliers really dislike it when they are forced to give it up as their primary job, either due to age or getting a promotion so it's probably not a surprise that someone who was a pilot upon joining a "mercenary" (aren't Wagner just Russian military with a different uniform, actual pay, and deniability when they commit warcrimes) does the job they like the most.

 

[Rroff]

(aren't Wagner just Russian military with a different uniform, actual pay, and deniability when they commit warcrimes)

They certainly seem to be able to get access to a lot of funds and a lot of toys for a mercenary group.

 

[Werewolf]

They certainly seem to be able to get access to a lot of funds and a lot of toys for a mercenary group.

They remind me of a more formalised version of the Russian Tourists in Ukraine from 2014, just a bit more thought given to explaining away why they've got all the military gear, and looking at their origins I suspect that is exactly what happened, and someone in Russia realised that the excuse "oh some troops just borrowed an APC from the reserves" wouldn't work with certain gear.

Normally I'd imagine just getting the munitions for things like fighters would be relatively hard, as it's not exactly like something you can say is for any other use unlike the jets themselves (IIRC there are a number of older fighters in private hands used at airshows and for film/tv).