Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

Status
Not open for further replies.
Grim5 said:
You called it, Russians blaming a "fire"
Click to expand...

:D

Just so happened that one of these fires happened at an ammunition dump right next to a railway, not only destroying the ammunition but putting the railway out of action and presumably scattering a load of UXO everywhere too creating a dangerous mess for the Russians to deal with and another one of them happened at a big transformer that is critical to the functioning of an electric railway in Crimea.
 
Thats 255km beyond nearest friendly territory. They've got to be using ATACMS to hit that deep in Crimea they just aren't admitting they have them.

Edit: Oh; Guess whats also within the 300km ATACMS range? Sevastopol :cool:
 
CaneyJ said:
Thats 255km beyond nearest friendly territory. They've got to be using ATACMS to hit that deep in Crimea they just aren't admitting they have them.

Edit: Oh; Guess whats also within the 300km ATACMS range? Sevastopol :cool:
Click to expand...
If they had those missiles I would have thought they would be looking to take out the Kerch Strait Bridge in the very near future.
 
CaneyJ said:
Thats 255km beyond nearest friendly territory. They've got to be using ATACMS to hit that deep in Crimea they just aren't admitting they have them.

Edit: Oh; Guess whats also within the 300km ATACMS range? Sevastopol :cool:
Click to expand...

I suspect it is special forces operations rather than long range missile attacks (as none have been reported) or kamikaze drone operations. Crimea has a long coastline.
 
CaneyJ said:
Thats 255km beyond nearest friendly territory. They've got to be using ATACMS to hit that deep in Crimea they just aren't admitting they have them.
Click to expand...
Missile would have been spotted, by eye or by radar
My guess is that there are agents planted in Crimea, flying small drones with explosives into HVT identified from satellite intelligence data. Probably just a single team.
 
I suspect they want to scare people out of Crimea before they essentially lock the remaining people in or make it hard for them to leave, I think there are two main ways out though, one to Ukraine to the north and the other to Russia to the east?
 
These explosions happened in broad daylight I highly doubt it's special forces unless they are using short range drones to start a chain reaction.

It doesn't tie up with what we saw a couple of days ago with the planes within their bunkers all individually blown apart unless it was a top-down fragmentation explosion caused by a large missile.

The Russians that far back won't be watching or have their anti-aircraft defences ready all the time to shoot anything down.

The same happened on the Moskva where it had plenty of anti air to shoot down a large incoming cruise missile but it was sunk anyway.

Russian systems require somebody watching a radar screen at all times to manually activate the system and all it takes is a lapse of concentration or a cig break for something to slip by. It can't be left on as it's dangerous to friendlies and the russians don't have an automated system.
 
Freddie1980 said:
If they had those missiles I would have thought they would be looking to take out the Kerch Strait Bridge in the very near future.
Click to expand...
It's out of range currently. If the Ukrainans can take the Dam up-river from Kherson at Nova Kakhovka they will then be in range to hit it as well as cut-off the water supply again to Crimea.
 
CaneyJ said:
It's out of range currently. If the Ukrainans can take the Dam up-river from Kherson at Nova Kakhovka they will then be in range to hit it as well as cut-off the water supply again to Crimea.
Click to expand...
I'm not sure if it's out range, those missiles have a range of 300Km's, if they fired them from Huliapole it's less then 270Km's to the bridge. I wonder what Russia will do if Ukraine retook the dam, before the war russia was supplying Crimea with water via boats but now their Navy has been forced back to port that route is no longer an option.
 
Freddie1980 said:
I'm not sure if it's out range, those missiles have a range of 300Km's, if they fired them from Huliapole it's less then 270Km's to the bridge. I wonder what Russia will do if Ukraine retook the dam, before the war russia was supplying Crimea with water via boats but now their Navy has been forced back to port that route is no longer an option.
Click to expand...
Even if it's in range, the ATACMS only carries 2.5 times the warhead size of a standard multi-shot HIMARS rocket (228kg as opposed to the 91kg) and can hit within a 9m circle but this drops off as range reaches it's max.

Even if it hits the bridge, standard HIMARS rockets only managed to punch 1ft wide holes in the concrete roadway of the Antonivsky bridge and had to hit it multiple times to make it (technically) unpassable for heavy vehicles but didn't knock it out, only a small section. Given the cost of ATACMS & likely extremely limited stocks it's not likely worth the effort.

A Ukranian neptune missle in comparison is 150kg but I'd also say isn't worth using as they would need a coastal launch which means Ukraine advancing as far as Berdyans'k.
 
I think attacking Kerch bridge would be more about embarrassing the Kremling than anything else since the required munitions to actually disable it are beyond Ukraine's ability to deliver unless they can somehow get a multi-tonne HE truckbomb onto it or conveniently blow up a munitions convoy at the right time.
 
HungryHippos said:
It's sort of pot calling the kettle black even if true, Russia have several times flown over international airspace borders since the war kicked off.

These are just the ones I've seen articles about.
Click to expand...

It is actually great that the RAF is doing this, because it reminds Russia it cannot pinch some of its aerial assets from other parts of the country at a time when Ukraine is targetting airfields. Keep the pressure on!
 
CaneyJ said:
Thats 255km beyond nearest friendly territory. They've got to be using ATACMS to hit that deep in Crimea they just aren't admitting they have them.
Click to expand...

Maybe but not necessarily, they also have an unknown number of Neptune missiles which (though slow) do have the range (circa 300km) and could be feasible to use after they destroyed air defence installations recently and they were also due to have (and might well now have) some homegrown short-range ballistic missiles (range 400-500km) with 500kg warheads which would make a big boom and be less easy to intercept:

en.wikipedia.org

Hrim-2 - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org

Also possible it was the work of either local saboteur/resistance groups or indeed Ukrainian SF infiltrating Crimea, remember they were running CASEVAC flights for the Azov guys in the steel plant right under the Russian's noses so dropping off a small team by helicopter is plausible as are small boats, canoes or possibly mini subs.

CaneyJ said:
These explosions happened in broad daylight I highly doubt it's special forces unless they are using short range drones to start a chain reaction.
Click to expand...

I think a missile is perhaps more likely but that line of reasoning doesn't follow, just because the explosions were set off during the daytime doesn't mean explosive charges were necessarily placed there in the daytime.
 
Jester* said:
It is actually great that the RAF is doing this, because it reminds Russia it cannot pinch some of its aerial assets from other parts of the country at a time when Ukraine is targetting airfields. Keep the pressure on!
Click to expand...

I don't really support the idea of people flying over airspace left right and centre from other countries, but from what I've seen Russia are extremely guilty of doing this all pretty often.

So it's hard to get any sympathy for them, even outside of the situation in Ukraine being present! :)
 
I know it would excessively expensive to a degree that makes absolutely no sense... but it would be interesting to see a ICBM-level missile carrying a thermobaric explosive a magnitude larger than even the MOAB (~50 kt perhaps), it would be such a gorgeous explosion.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top Bottom