Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

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Russia can surely mobilise more, but there is always a cost to doing so.

Likewise I am sure that more support could be found for Ukraine, if it was necessary.

Ukraine seem content to win the battle of attrition whilst waiting for Russia to make the next move.
 
HungryHippos said:
Russia can surely mobilise more, but there is always a cost to doing so.

Likewise I am sure that more support could be found for Ukraine, if it was necessary.

Ukraine seem content to win the battle of attrition whilst waiting for Russia to make the next move.
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It is interesting at least at face value, Russia can keep the field weapons and munitions in supply, in the longer run ramp up production of knock-off T72s to probably a fairly competent tank level, SPGs, etc. but their aviation seems only serviceable in very low numbers, don't seem to have the institutional knowledge and experience for large scale complex air missions and their air defences appear to be completely exposed by HIMARS. Without their strategic forces their ground forces would be destroyed in possibly even hours against modern air supremacy - even a full mobilisation.
 
Rroff said:
I do bang my head against a wall a bit when I see the inference that peace time economic understandings might act as a barrier to military mobilisation - not to say there is no impact at all but it does not prevent a country like Russia from being able to resource a war once they've abandoned peace time conventions.

It might take some time but Russia is completely capable of putting together some form of military industrial capability on a large scale. They've also not depleted their reserves of equipment anything like people seem to think - favouring dipping deeper into cold storage vs their "better" maintained reserve equipment so far.

There seems to be a huge underestimation of how much is being done in a fashion due to Putin's paranoia vs actual desperation and scraping the barrel.
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China will start to give Russia weapons.
 
ubersonic said:
Crimea has always been mostly populated by ethnic Russians (legit ones not the transplanted ones rebelling in Donbas), well for the last 100 years anyway. This is why Crimea was so against being given to Ukraine in the first place and fought so hard politically to return to Russia for years prior to the shenanigans in 2014 (which has worked out great for them lol).
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There is no such thing as an ethnic Russian, they're all Eastern Slavs. What happened to Crimea was a multi-generational campaign to cleanse it of Crimean Tatars much like what Russia did versus the Circassian people they committed genocide against in the Caucus region so that Russia could play silly games about it 'always' being theirs, unfortunately it was prior to the West's collective enlightenment on such matters so it's essentially a matter of who has the bigger stick over who runs Crimea.

It really ought to be independent from both countries, but I doubt that's ever going to happen.
 
Mrwong said:
China will start to give Russia weapons.
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Think that depends what their actual intentions are with regard to Taiwan. Though I suspect there will be some backdoor traffic via North Korea none the less.

China seems to be if anything taking advantage of the situation to bend Russia over lately - they probably won't offer Russia substantial military aid unless/until they want to cause maximum disruption due to kicking off military action against Taiwan.
 
Stretch said:
His link suggests 50-60% of Crimean's supported independence from Russia in 1991.
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Oh, he was being serious, oh well lol.

Mr Jack said:
Liar.
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My apologies I didn't notice the hyperlink at first and thought you were just being comedic, I often forget that as this thread has been going on for 8+ years now there will be people coming in who have missed previous information, don't know as much, etc.

Okay, I think you're trying to argue against the facts you highlighted in the post you quoted? (pointing out Crimea was against being given to Ukraine). Firstly the page you linked is about Ukraine's secession from the USSR in the early 90's not about Crimea being given to Ukraine (and even then if you read it only a third of Crimean's supported that). Crimea was given to Ukraine in the 1950s by Khrushchev, something the Crimean government and people strongly opposed at the time, the government even going as far as trying to challenge the legality of it until it was made clear that they could agree to be given to Ukraine or go to gulag. Even then it was a sour subject for the Crimean's for many years with them fighting politically to regain their autonomy from the Ukrainian SSR (which they did in the early 90s) and later holding referendums on re-gaining Russian nationality (in 1994 and 2014).

The tragically funny thing about it all is that the whole thing originated as a PR stunt, from Khrushchev's point of view moving an autonomous republic from one Soviet state to another was nothing as operationally nothing would change and the USSR would last forever blah blah. The whole thing was just to make it look like Moscow was being benevolent to the USSR's second largest member state.
 
Rroff said:
Think that depends what their actual intentions are with regard to Taiwan. Though I suspect there will be some backdoor traffic via North Korea none the less.

China seems to be if anything taking advantage of the situation to bend Russia over lately - they probably won't offer Russia substantial military aid unless/until they want to cause maximum disruption due to kicking off military action against Taiwan.
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China are probably doing it as we type.
 
Vaguely related - supposedly it is kicking off majorly in Northern Syria currently with large scale movement of Turkish troops over the border (exact details are a bit vague currently).

In other news apparently Russian TV is blaming British special forces for recent sabotage...
 
Regarding Crimea, if Stalin hadn't force the Crimean Tatars into Central Asia (killing a very percentage of them) and if Khrushchev's denouncement and reversal of Stalin's crimes hadn't excluded them from returning, then support for being part of Russia would have been very different.

Especially after the 1990s, when surviving Crimean Tatars were eventuell able to go home. Ukraine recognises what happened to them as genocide. Russia still denies everything. Hence why Putin's Crimean "referendum" was such a farce as the alleged numbers who voted for Putin would have had to include most ethic Tartars as well ethic Ukrainians.
 
KompuKare said:
Regarding Crimea, if Stalin hadn't force the Crimean Tatars into Central Asia (killing a very percentage of them) and if Khrushchev's denouncement and reversal of Stalin's crimes hadn't excluded them from returning, then support for being part of Russia would have been very different.

Especially after the 1990s, when surviving Crimean Tatars were eventuell able to go home. Ukraine recognises what happened to them as genocide. Russia still denies everything. Hence why Putin's Crimean "referendum" was such a farce as the alleged numbers who voted for Putin would have had to include most ethic Tartars as well ethic Ukrainians.
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Russia is already doing this in Eastern ukraine, forcefully reporting Ukrainians and replacing them with mainland Russians so it can get the referendum result it wants. It's easy to say crimea wants to be part of Russia when you killed all the natives and told Russians to move there
 
Rroff said:
In other news apparently Russian TV is blaming British special forces for recent sabotage...
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Well, they did try to pin the Kursk suffering a torpedo room explosion and subsequent sinking on a Royal Navy submarine, so pinning the blame on those perfidious Brits is nothing new for Russia when they’re either getting their arses handed to them or suffer the catastrophic consequences of their own inadequacy and incompetence.
 
The Funktopus said:
Well, they did try to pin the Kursk suffering a torpedo room explosion and subsequent sinking on a Royal Navy submarine, so pinning the blame on those perfidious Brits is nothing new for Russia when they’re either getting their arses handed to them or suffer the catastrophic consequences of their own inadequacy and incompetence.
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It is a compliment to the professionalism of our armed forces that when something is done well the recognition is directed here. Undeserved or not the lie is made believable by its possibility.
 
ubersonic said:
Okay, I think you're trying to argue against the facts you highlighted in the post you quoted? (pointing out Crimea was against being given to Ukraine). Firstly the page you linked is about Ukraine's secession from the USSR in the early 90's not about Crimea being given to Ukraine (and even then if you read it only a third of Crimean's supported that).
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Yes, it's true that it was about succession from the USSR rather than Russia per se however Russia is the successor state to the USSR and de facto the USSR was little more than extended Russia. Thus a referendum on Ukrainian independence is also a referendum on separation from Russia. As for the silliness of "only a third", the referendum was 55-45 in the Crimean ASSR and 57-43 in Sevestapol City. As always elections/referendums are counted based on those that turn up and vote.

Crimea was given to Ukraine in the 1950s by Khrushchev, something the Crimean government and people strongly opposed at the time, the government even going as far as trying to challenge the legality of it until it was made clear that they could agree to be given to Ukraine or go to gulag. Even then it was a sour subject for the Crimean's for many years with them fighting politically to regain their autonomy from the Ukrainian SSR (which they did in the early 90s) and later holding referendums on re-gaining Russian nationality (in 1994 and 2014).
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There's been a lot of history since 1954. The question of what they would have done then is a moot point. The 2014 "referendum" should not be taken seriously as it was little more than a Russian stunt. Polling carried out in the years prior to the referendum showed support for re-unification with Russia somewhere between 23 and 41 percent.
 
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