UK doesn't seem to mind who buys property here though
Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar
- Thread starter areksnumbr1sxylady
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This has been going on every year... Multiple times a year at this point. I can't take this seriously anymore. Sounds like a boy who cried wolf one too many times for personal gain.
Not sure that's much comfort considering the outcome of that fable.
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Doesn't change the issue that this story is over-saturated to the point its hard to believe it. For 7 years, the full Russian invasion of Ukraine is imminent and is coming in couple weeks with 99% certainty. Each time so far, it turned out to be false.
Soldato
So because it hasn't happened in 7 years, it won't happen at all?
I did not say that did I. Its like hypothetically - your fat uncle telling you every Christmas for past 7 years he is going to lose weight for sure. Then each year proceeding to not doing it.
Doesn’t mean he wont maybe. Just hard to believe and get riled up for uncle Bob this Christmas again - for 8th time in row that he is going to lose weight for sure this year.
Soldato
It's odd to bracket things by year. It has been an ongoing long term build up along the European border. It's a long term strategic game of chess, designed to test the resolve of NATO and friendly nations. Putin isn't sat there thinking "ooh, perhaps this year is my year". The guy is in for the long haul, slowly chipping away with objectives he's set into the decades and beyond.
You won't be fighting them in January at least not 2022 - first there will be denial, then running around like headless chickens, then strong condemnation, then a plan, a bold plan, a world beating plan which will funnel lots of money to Boris's chums and by the time we get our act together Russia will be 4 million square miles bigger.
On another note.
Factors which concern me a little more this time around though:
Despite a big deal being made of the pull back of troops after the last build up much of the equipment remained - meaning there is much more capabilities and reserves there than the initial impression from this new build up. Which is a particularly Russian tactic in the precursor to actual action without the way massive building up of reserves, etc. would telegraph what was happening.
A contentious one in terms of significance on the modern battlefield and there are valid reasons for civilian/commercial needs based reorganisation after the events of the last few years but a significant amount of railway infrastructure has been upgraded in the previous weeks and months which allows better movement to and from and along the front.
Forward movement of medical capabilities along various parts of the border from Belarus to Crimea.
Large scale rapid infield upgrades of equipment to provide counters to newer Ukrainian capabilities rather than rotating equipment out to do it in proper facilities.
On the other hand Russians are largely unimpressed by anti-Ukraine propaganda and probably at an all time low in terms of support for any war - most are fatigued with all the Russian and Western political posturing and rhetoric and won't easily be deflected from domestic issues under the current environment - possibly turning more support away from Putin than uniting them in a common cause if it came to war.
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Russian military command must be awful and we should not worry about it quite frankly if this is the case. Imagine building up forces for 7 years near the border for a 'surprise' invasion of Ukraine. I personally, at this point, believe that this hype is done by Ukraine/NATO for their personal gains. Ukraine as Russia gets to turn away attention from domestic issues, NATO gets the benefit of being relevant and increased military budgets.
The first 2 or so years of imminent Russian attacks on Ukraine that were spaced every 3-6 months apart were believable. At this point, its hard to get riled up about it due to sheer amount of absolute certain attacks by Putin within next 2-4 weeks that never happen.
In the end, its pointless to argue. You can continue arguing that each time these news make the rounds Russia is about to attack in next 2 weeks. For me personally, there has been about 20 or more of those 'for sure' Russia is about to attack in past 7 years so its hard to believe it.
Soldato
If you base your understanding of the world wholly on what media outlets tell you then it's understandable why you might think the way you (and many) do. Your inference that NATO doesn't have relevance indicates a significant lack of understanding for one.
That's quite plausible, they've got their claim staked in Ukraine, the semi-independent territories (just as there are in Georgia), they regard those people as Russians now so will use that as an excuse for any invasion.
Essentially Crimea seems to be lost completely and the other chunk of Ukraine seized by Russia/proxies is more of a bargaining chip, they want Ukraine to step back a bit from the West. Ukraine on the other hand might have been in the position to gradually take back those lost areas, which obvs Russia doesn't want ergo they'll leave that threat of invasion there in order to maintain the status quo.
Not exactly a great status quo as any sort of escalation could now act as a trigger for Russian forces to move and it isn't clear how far they'd go, whether they'd simply officially occupy or even annex the areas held by Russian proxies or whether they'd grab a large chunk of Ukrainian land and given the latter is quite plausible then just how much more land would they intend to grab either for themselves of for some new proxy pro-Russian state.
Media outlets? I'm confused, these are not media outlets reporting this. This is either US or NATO officials or its members reporting this in briefings. If it was daily mail, I never would have even bothered. The Russian invasion of Ukraine that is imminent within 2-4 weeks for past 7 years comes from highest official channels - again in US/NATO or its members. Not media.
I think the whole Donbass area is just a head-ache for Russia from day 1. I think they'd be happy to give it away on good terms. Hence the whole Minsk accords - which are not going anywhere and if you actually read into it are due to Ukrainian side. Because they are written in a way that any sitting president or parliament that enforces them - would be put on pitchforks.
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put all our troops in Ukraine and ships in the black sea. these russians and chinese are dodgy.
Soldato
I'd be interested to see this direct quote by NATO that there is a Russian invasion of Ukraine imminent within 2-4 weeks. Care to link?
Also, given that they did just that in 2014, why would such a statement be so wild anyway?
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/11/10/politics/blinken-ukrainian-presser/index.html
So Blinken says that Russia is about to repeat 2014 all while there is leaks to all media about 'US Intelligence briefing saying Russia will attack in January'.
Username checks out
Soldato
So just the US, not NATO?
And in your own link:
Also
kind of confirms my point that you rely on media outlets, which of course like to sensationalise on all fronts.
I don't know, you just seem intent on peddling an anti NATO/anti West rhetoric. I still don't see how NATO are irrelevant here either? Are you a pro communist?
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