Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

[Hagar]

If the standard of construction on that ship was anything to go by, I wouldn’t worry about Chinese naval expansion.

Unless it is a sudden uncontrolled expansion of the LNG tanks.

 

[Mr Jack]

Russian losses as of today

Keep up the good work, Ukraine

I keep seeing this, but what about Ukraine?

Ukraine isn't providing regular updates, in August, they were claiming 9000 losses in their ranks. Russia claimed to have killed 61k and wounded 49k in September. No-one takes Russian estimates seriously, and I don't think we should treat Ukrainian estimates as reliable either. Meanwhile, those third party state actors who could produce such data and we'd trust have no interest in contradicting Ukraine. So, yeah, we're not going to get good numbers for Ukraine at any point soon.

 

[Rroff]

The recent video of reported HIMARS attacks on Russian convoys/artillery is a banger. Not sure if it is HIMARS but not seen footage like that before. Whole concentrations of trucks/artillery wrecked.

If the footage I think I believe it was M270 but same difference in terms of the munitions.

 

[Brazo]

---

Sounds like Putin is going to meet with Erdogan to discuss negotiations. I think Russia will be somewhat naive in this discussion and will want to keep the land it has “annexed” but they are very clearly losing this war to the point that Crimea will be lost eventually. I’m not sure where they will want to come to an agreement. https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...ea-russia-west-talks-kremlin-says-2022-10-10/

In any eventual carving up of territory I do think Russia should at least be allowed to keep Moscow.

 

[I_M_Weasel]

Do you get a retention bonus, checks on competency in your speciality, fitness etc? I am sure you are much better than some of the mobilised Russians portrayed but soldiers with a return to service liability need to be fitter than average and retain their skills to be of use to the country.

No, but 24 years of doing the job tends to stick in your head - you'd need some refresher training if you were called up, but the basics would be there and the required mentality. I do quite a lot of fitness anyway as do many ex-soldiers.

The Russian reserves seem to be made up of people who did a year because they had to and didn't learn that much anyway and now have been called up against their will.

British Army soldiers all volunteered, have meaningful lengths of service, comprehensive training and usually operational experience - I think they are a better thing to form your reserves from.

 

[Chris Wilson]

I’ve worked on a Chinese built LNG carrier in my time, and despite it only being 2 years old, we had massive problems with pipes in both freshwater and seawater cooling systems corroding through, it was normal to come across a pipe spraying water from a hole in an elbow or a flange into the engine room. We used to joke that they must have used ‘Chinesium’ instead of steel.

Additionally, there didn’t seem to be any kind of plan when they’d installed the piping in the yard, so it was an absolute illogical mess, trying to trace lines and find valves to isolate leaks was a nightmare. Furthermore, the shipyard hadn’t seen fit to use graphite steam gasket material for the steam service system, so it was a constant battle having to play whack-a-mole with steam leaks.

If the standard of construction on that ship was anything to go by, I wouldn’t worry about Chinese naval expansion.

All those old bicycle frames have to be recycled, probably melted down with the tyres and saddles still on...

 

[Dis86]

All those old bicycle frames have to be recycled, probably melted down with the tyres and saddles still on...

In one of my previous jobs we were very strict about country of origins for steel. Basically it was Spain or UK.
We tried a little experiment with some Chinese forgings once. They all failed to meet every single required standard and upon investigation we actually found partially unmelted bolts within.

 

[esmozz]

Russian losses as of today

I'd take those numbers with a pinch of salt. Both sides in war engage in propaganda. I have'nt seen any numbers producted by third parties for a while but at the beginning of the war the number of losses estimated by the MoD were approximately half of what the Ukrainians were stating at the time.

 

[Harlequin]

Random thought - Russia was recently moving a large amount of FAB-5000`s in the back of a lorry?

 

[Mercenary Keyboard Warrior]

I'd take those numbers with a pinch of salt. Both sides in war engage in propaganda. I have'nt seen any numbers producted by third parties for a while but at the beginning of the war the number of losses estimated by the MoD were approximately half of what the Ukrainians were stating at the time.

I agree probably far too low, considering the vast size of the battlefield and difficulty in finding bodies etc I suspect its far higher.

Thats what you meant right, like every other conflict many just disappear without trace.

The numbers sound high, but when you consider how many days its been its like 10 MBT per day which isn't that much, again considering the size of the battlefield.

 

[Mercenary Keyboard Warrior]

Random thought - Russia was recently moving a large amount of FAB-5000`s in the back of a lorry?

One fell off the back of a truck onto the bridge you mean?

 

[Rroff]

Random thought - Russia was recently moving a large amount of FAB-5000`s in the back of a lorry?

You mean the truck load of FAB-500s last seen 25-50Km east of the Kerch bridge?

 

[Dis86]

I'd take those numbers with a pinch of salt. Both sides in war engage in propaganda. I have'nt seen any numbers producted by third parties for a while but at the beginning of the war the number of losses estimated by the MoD were approximately half of what the Ukrainians were stating at the time.

Russians have partially confirmed it by stating how much had been paid out to the families of dead soldiers. Additionally the equipment losses have been verified by various third parties to some extent as well.

 

[Hook]

Russians have partially confirmed it by stating how much had been paid out to the families of dead soldiers. Additionally the equipment losses have been verified by various third parties to some extent as well.

Did those numbers include goats and frozen fish?

 

[Harlequin]

You mean the truck load of FAB-500s last seen 25-50Km east of the Kerch bridge?

3 days ago....

 

[Dis86]

Did those numbers include goats and frozen fish?

They did not

 

[esmozz]

I agree probably far too low, considering the vast size of the battlefield and difficulty in finding bodies etc I suspect its far higher.

Thats what you meant right, like every other conflict many just disappear without trace.

The numbers sound high, but when you consider how many days its been its like 10 MBT per day which isn't that much, again considering the size of the battlefield.

No - I mean like in every other conflict where enemy losses are seen as a metric of success there is a tendancy to over-estimate these losses.

But you knew that already because I'm sure you managed to read all 3 sentances in my post.

 

[the wopster]

I'd take those numbers with a pinch of salt. Both sides in war engage in propaganda. I have'nt seen any numbers producted by third parties for a while but at the beginning of the war the number of losses estimated by the MoD were approximately half of what the Ukrainians were stating at the time.

considering released Russian compensation claims paid to families was showing as close to what Ukrainian figures were saying, not such a big pinch of salt is required

 

[Mercenary Keyboard Warrior]

No - I mean like in every other conflict where enemy losses are seen as a metric of success there is a tendancy to over-estimate these losses.

But you knew that already because I'm sure you managed to read all 3 sentances in my post.

Its not easy to assess these things. There was a group validating based on photos who seemed to be aligning fairly closely with the MBTs for example when you took into account some delay.
I assume they are also including all the equipment that Russia has been leaving behind.

The numbers don't seem far off likely to me. Again its a massive conflict.

I am sure certain assumptions are being made on tank crews etc, when you consider there is virtually nothing left inside them once they setoff the complete supply of ammunition inside the tank.

 

[esmozz]

Its not easy to assess these things. There was a group validating based on photos who seemed to be aligning fairly closely with the MBTs for example when you took into account some delay.
I assume they are also including all the equipment that Russia has been leaving behind.

The numbers don't seem far off likely to me. Again its a massive conflict.

I am sure certain assumptions are being made on tank crews etc, when you consider there is virtually nothing left inside them once they setoff the complete supply of ammunition inside the tank.

It's the assumptions that skew the numbers - for example with tendancy of russian tanks to self destruct. A colleague of mine who operated russian tanks in the miltary explained to me that there was generally a few seconds of warning before the turret popped off, quite often enabling the crews to get out before the tank went up. I have no idea if this is true but assume there is some truth to it given his experience. And therefore, assuming a lost tank = a lost crew may not be correct.

It would be naive to think boths sides in this conflict are not engaging in propaganda, even if you want to believe one side. It's also possible to support Ukraine and at the same time be critical of some of the things they say.