Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

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From this talk of Russia and China wanting to start a new international order, I can sort of believe it. China have secured a lot of discounted oil from Iran and Russia in recent years threatening the petrodollar. The sphere of influence of these three countries combined is enough to cause a shift in my opinion. You have China with their bottomless piggy bank and willingness to do business with anyone. Iran with their control over Shi'a Islam. And then there is Russia with Putin's mind games and his ability to play countries off each other.

So add Syria, Iraq, North Korea, Lebanon, Argentina, Brazil, probably many other African countries heavily dependent on Chinese investment to this new paradigm.

At this point in time it is looking like NATO, South Korea, Japan and Australia vs the rest of the world.
 
Mr Jack said:
Well. I was today years old when I learned that Norway has a landborder with Russia.
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It's why the Royal Marines deploy to Norway annually, part of their role is to protect NATO's northern flank, during the 90s before the baltic states joined it was the only NATO/Russian border.
 
Not sure what the US is up to - possibly monitoring the incoming Russian fleet to the Black Sea but they've got a bunch of RC135s of various types up over the Black Sea running various missions with other aircraft which aren't visible on ADS-B.

Another US Stratotanker up off Norway and an unknown aircraft running some kind of search patterns over the Norwegian Sea - either tracking surface or sub-surface craft.
 
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I wonder what Macron has promised Putin .... anything to look good for the elections, I'm sure it will be incompatible to NATO /EU based on Putin's crazy conditions and demands.
 
alchal said:
I wonder what Macron has promised Putin .... anything to look good for the elections, I'm sure it will be incompatible to NATO /EU based on Putin's crazy conditions and demands.
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Since membership to Nato has to be unanimous with no Veto. Part of me suspects Macron said "Don't worry, we'll veto every application so no one you wont like can join. We can make any reason we like and because it's us no one will be able to do anything about it. I'll look like a diplomatic hero and win the election and you'll look like you faced down Nato and won"
 
Rroff said:
Not sure what the US is up to - possibly monitoring the incoming Russian fleet to the Black Sea but they've got a bunch of RC135s of various types up over the Black Sea running various missions with other aircraft which aren't visible on ADS-B.

Another US Stratotanker up off Norway and an unknown aircraft running some kind of search patterns over the Norwegian Sea - either tracking surface or sub-surface craft.
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Probably keeping tabs on those amphibious ships that were going through the English Channel not too long ago. Might well see them landing a few kms along the coast from Odessa if Putin carries on with his invasion plans, obvs needs them inside the black sea before any invasion if he wants to use them as otherwise, Turkey could shut down the strait once military action commences.

One thing Putin could try to do that stops short of taking over the whole country or putting in a proxy govt but goes further than a land grab in the east is to go for a land grab in both the east and the south, cutting Ukraine off from the sea! That would be devastating for the Ukrainian economy.
 
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alchal said:
I wonder what Macron has promised Putin .... anything to look good for the elections, I'm sure it will be incompatible to NATO /EU based on Putin's crazy conditions and demands.
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France has a history of being mediator between Russia and US/NATO. It's a way to continue dialog, win some brownie points at home before the election. It was announced from both sides before the meeting that nothing substantial would be agreed. It's a positive diplomatic gesture though, dialog is better than escalation.

nsmalley said:
Since membership to Nato has to be unanimous with no Veto. Part of me suspects Macron said "Don't worry, we'll veto every application so no one you wont like can join. We can make any reason we like and because it's us no one will be able to do anything about it. I'll look like a diplomatic hero and win the election and you'll look like you faced down Nato and won"
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It may have been the case (never officially stated but informally everybody understood that France/Germany would internally veto any Ukrainian/Georgian ascension) that Russia was told that before but now we see that Putin wants a formal document to confirm that Ukraine and Georgia will never join, hence Macron would not be able to offer verbal guarantees because that does not change the status quo.
 
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Nerusy said:
France has a history of being mediator between Russia and US/NATO. It's a way to continue dialog, win some brownie points at home before the election. It was announced from both sides before the meeting that nothing substantial would be agreed. It's a positive diplomatic gesture though, dialog is better than escalation.



It may have been the case (never officially stated but informally everybody understood that France/Germany would internally veto any Ukrainian/Georgian ascension) that Russia was told that before but now we see that Putin wants a formal document to confirm that Ukraine and Georgia will never join, hence Macron would not be able to offer verbal guarantees because that does not change the status quo.
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Maybe Macron has also signed away Crimea also. If Ukraine wants any hope of joining the EU, they could make it conditional that they have to forget about reunifying Ukraine with Crimea.
 

Overlapping intel missions up.

Makes sense to up the monitoring with exercises in motion, could be monitoring to see if there is any real movement inline with the talk of de-escalation but we are probably entering the most likely/dangerous phase for anything to happen if stuff is going to kick off as most of the pieces are in place now and they won't be keeping units hanging around indefinitely.

Not sure what happened here:

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Possibly an error/insufficient data on ADS-B or a drone, doesn't seem to be a scheduled flight and seems to have gone down in a field in the middle of nowhere. Maybe a "defection" to Russia even.

Possibly unrelated but the aircraft on its left at Belgorod is part of the Russian presidential air fleet.
 
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Dem2k said:
Maybe Macron has also signed away Crimea also. If Ukraine wants any hope of joining the EU, they could make it conditional that they have to forget about reunifying Ukraine with Crimea.
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Hopefully not, but I can see France and Germany especially going along with this, fortunately, in my opinion the rest of NATO /EU will not allow this.

However the west is proving to be totally limp when facing Russia/China aggression, especially China, they must be loving watching the west implode with division and indecision, we are too worried about our gas supplies and cheap tack imports to stand up, also no doubt mixed in with bribes to companies and the super rich.

Sad times for the west.
 
Interesting developments. It's what I've always believed that man will destroy itself, call it Armageddon if you like but it will come one day, I think these are precursors though for the big event when it happens one day. Really puts existence into perspective though.
 
Anybody ever watch Russian news its weird and right nationalistic its always going on about new weapons they have and the comments from the Russian bots about how they are going to sink American aircraft carriers with their new hypersonic missiles they make me laugh.
 
alchal said:
Hopefully not, but I can see France and Germany especially going along with this, fortunately, in my opinion the rest of NATO /EU will not allow this.

However the west is proving to be totally limp when facing Russia/China aggression, especially China, they must be loving watching the west implode with division and indecision, we are too worried about our gas supplies and cheap tack imports to stand up, also no doubt mixed in with bribes to companies and the super rich.

Sad times for the west.
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Their is only us and the Americans and the Australians standing up to them the French are useless and the Germans are pacifists.
 
banbom44 said:
Anybody ever watch Russian news its weird and right nationalistic its always going on about new weapons they have and the comments from the Russian bots about how they are going to sink American aircraft carriers with their new hypersonic missiles they make me laugh.
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I've been browsing some Russian chat/forums a bit and generally it is pretty typical - lots of hoping for the best/it is never going to happen opinions, a few bot like comments about how their army is the best in the world and the US doesn't stand a chance. Most seem to be under the impression rightly or wrongly it is all just a big training exercise. (The chat generally seems to indicate mobilisations are starting to pick up in pace now - though I'm not really seeing that filtering through to the OSINT channels).

I'm sure there is a not insignificant number who buy into the propaganda but a lot don't.
 
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