Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar
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Soldato
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I'm not disagreeing with you.
They can ask but they won't get because they're not full NATO members and thats escalating into a direct conflict since there are already russian troops stationed on moldovan soil in the east. It no coincidence Putin is going for all the non aligned former soviet block states he knows the West don't want an open conflict if he can't rule by proxy he'll go for a direct assault its no secret he wants to restore the old Soviet bloc status and power and he doesn't care by what means its done
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America would blame Europe if Russia took Ukraine just like we blame America for pulling our of Afgan, knowing full well it would fall (regardless of how quick). Considering this is on our door step and combined power of EU+UK plus it seems insane we're still treating this like alittle borrowing exercise when we should be on a war footing, putting huge amounts into re-stocking, manufacturing like it's a proper war in our own countries. The West always finds this money somehow when we're all in it together; 2008, post 2008 sovereign debt crisis, Covid. We just nudge the debt counter alittle more. Doing that on our own and for no good reason you gets Truss like event but together the markets play along.
We're very risk averse, we've got the best toys but are reluctant to use them because we don't want to start "WWIII" yet Russia seems fine to, further exploiting our weakness.
Or maybe behind the scenes we just want to do this on the 'cheap'; bleed Russia slowly, providing just enough to let them take alittle more land, but not too much, which requires more resources for Russia to hold, only for them to collapse the line when they get pushed back from West proving a few more toys, then stall, rinse and repeat for several years. Just that Ukraine is stuck in the middle of that game. We can re-stock over several years instead of a short (expensive) period. You'd better hope nothing else kicks off in the meantime..
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It would be nice to think the Americans have long range weapons on the way and don't want the russians to know 
Well we saw how well the Iron Curtain and Warsaw Pact held up so sadly I think there's a likely infectious thinking in government circles that Russia will just repeat it's mistakes when it's far more likely that it will just kill everyone who disagrees to an extent that goes even beyond Stalin's tantrums.
Soldato
Soldato
I'd like to think that Ukrainians would learn quickly on this one. Surely radar operators would be able to learn characteristics of the object they are tracking? It might lead to more successful strikes where a degree of caution/delay is introduced. However they have limited resources to work with and have to prioritise potential targets.
I know that when we were tracking live IDF, I quickly learned to be able to categorise what type of munition I was tracking on radar by the radar signature, usually you could predict with a very reasonable level of accuracy by firing range, speed, detection range etc. Even down to what the radar could see prior to it actually confirming a track.
Not always to an exact caliber. However, I could at least at least discern that a 120mm mortar look significantly different from a 107mm rocket and likewise a 105mm gun.
Soldato
Wow.
I suspect most of the population had no idea the systems (and operators) can get to that level of detail on munitions. Its quite amazing really.
What was the main differentiator, angle, speed etc or something else?
Soldato
Russian anti-war activist tells Putin his regime is close to collapse
Maria Ponomarenko, 44, was jailed for spreading so-called fake news after she wrote about Russia bombing a theatre in the Ukrainian city of Mariupol.
Poor women hope we can get her out eventually.
Soldato
Russian anti-war activist tells Putin his regime is close to collapse
Maria Ponomarenko, 44, was jailed for spreading so-called fake news after she wrote about Russia bombing a theatre in the Ukrainian city of Mariupol.www.dailymail.co.uk
Poor women hope we can get her out eventually.
Anyone who stands up to Putin in Russia has incredible courage. 99% just keep quiet and considering the consequences its hard to blame them.
Russia favours that kind of approach - quite often expending men and equipment through recon by combat type missions - in Soviet times it would have been followed up by intense artillery - these days not quite the same capability there.
Soldato
Imagine being the soldiers that are the probing fodder. "Go out and find their positions". Literally being sent out to die.
Soldato
"97% of Russian Army is in Ukraine".
Someone tell me this is wrong. That seems insane. Why would they leave their borders unprotected?
Dunno. But it might be fun to see Japan nip in, take the Kuil islands and hold a referendum..
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That statement needs clarification, it's too vague
I'm sure it doesn't mean 97% of their equipment. Maybe it means 97% of their soldiers? And if so are we talking pre war army numbers or including all the drafts so far?
If it includes all combat forces including the draft conscripts then wow if Russia doesn't secure a major breakthrough soon it will either collapse in Ukraine or be forced to conduct another massive draft
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Soldato
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Their borders are protected with nuclear weapons
Well a simple answer is because nuclear powers don't get invaded.
Though another simple answer is that Ben Wallace is an idiot xD
Soldato
My instant thought was the same when I read it. I frankly, don't believe the statement at face value.
I dunno what the context of his 97% is but that isn't right. Even the army groups which have been heavily committed to Ukraine have only sent about 40-50% of their standing forces.
There seems to be a common error, even amongst professionals, of taking away the current cumulative numbers away from Russia's pre-war active ground forces - ignoring that a significant amount was composed of 2 rounds of mobilisation pre-war, one around 4000, the other in the 10s of thousands, in the lead up to the war, significant numbers of Wagner, Chechen and other irregular/mercenary forces, Rosgvardiya and other security/police/border forces used as light infantry, etc. etc. as well as the more recent mobilisations.
EDIT: If it really is 97%, which I have good reason to doubt, there is a **** load of "potemkining" going on with their regular forces and their actual state is far far worse than the more sceptical appraisals - there is more than 3%, if the current forces in Ukraine was 97% of their forces, currently deployed to Belarus.
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