Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

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Stretch said:
If China arms Russia I think we should be prepared for a very bumpy ride.

It’s essentially the end of the wests relationship with China. That already looks fairly inevitable but it will happen much more quickly.
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Yep. If China arms Russia its almost certainty that that we'll see the US announce longer range missiles and F16 jets, but for Russia it means they will no longer ammo supply issue if China goes all in on them which then likely means that of Ukraine can't win soon they are unlikely to be able to win
 
Harlequin said:
If China start arming Russia, it could escalate in South East Asia with a CBG or 2 port blockading commerce leaving.
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That's another phase higher as well, just about ww3 without nukes. The less risky route is that if China arms Russia, US puts sanctions on Chinese businesses, announces fighter jets for Ukraine and better missiles. Russia gets access to huge stockpile of Chinese ammo.

The higher risk route is that everything above happens plus the US decides to implement a naval blockade of in the SEA sea to enforce sanctions - I can't see this happening as it will be ww3 but that option is there and no one wants it. I can't see the US doing more than just sanctions on Chinese business and supplying better equipment to Ukraine and then hope for the best because the war it's likely to just end in a draw or Russian victory.
 
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*U.S. State Dept: China Has Been “Anything but an Honest Broker” in Ukraine-Russia Peace Effort
*U.S. State Dept: U.S. Has Seen China “Very Clearly Take a Side” With Russia in Ukraine War
*U.S. State Dept: Fact That China Engaging With Leader of Belarus Is Another Example of How Beiijng Is Deepening Engagements With Russia
*U.S. State Dept: China’s Ukraine Peace Plan “May Not Be Serious Proposal”
https://www.youtube.com/live/jiwNdrjkTs4

*White House’s Kirby: We Welcome Visit by Saudi Foreign Minister To Kyiv
*White House’s Kirby: Saudi Arabia’s Decision to Provide $400 Million in Aid to Ukraine “A Step in the Right Direction”
https://www.youtube.com/live/lNUan5RU5Tw

*Zelenskiy in Nightly Speech Says Ukraine Can Only Defend Skies if Its Partners Lift “Aviation Taboo”
*Zelenskiy: Situation Becomes Constantly More Difficult Around Bakhmut
 
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I think the thought of Russia breaking up or losing thier fellow dictator in crime is too much of a worry for China.

Just like Russia, they can't afford to have a democracy next door born from the ashes of a fallen corrupted regime/ dictator that they praised.


The US will definitely hit hard with sanctions and they will bite china hard, question is how will the EU member states act individually, if they all follow the US then China will be losing thier two most important markets for selling to, will Xi cope with the social unrest this could cause?

Some big gambling to be had by China here.
 
I don't understand why China would take the Russia route? Surely selling their wares to the rest of the world is worth more than throwing your love spuds on Putins BBQ...
 
KiNgPiN83 said:
I don't understand why China would take the Russia route? Surely selling their wares to the rest of the world is worth more than throwing your love spuds on Putins BBQ...
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..because communism...

They like money, but they also like control.

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Lushenko is an idiot. If war were to break out... Belarus would be immediately overrun.

(EDIT: Just to say that I realize China is somewhat of a hybrid Communist system now).
 
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KiNgPiN83 said:
I don't understand why China would take the Russia route? Surely selling their wares to the rest of the world is worth more than throwing your love spuds on Putins BBQ...
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Because they can't have thier citizens watch thier best pal loose and potentially become a democracy, thier biggest threat.
 
Harlequin said:
If China start arming Russia, it could escalate in South East Asia with a CBG or 2 port blockading commerce leaving.
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Nah that's jumping way ahead, would be illegal and would risk outright military confrontation with the Chinese navy, the US has no grounds to stop Russian or Chinese ships in international waters just as Russia or China have no grounds to stop Western ships etc.

It's sanctions on China in general that you'd likely see if they were to do this, just as there are rumours of potential US sanctions on individual companies already involved in supplying Russia.
 
The only real option for the US is to base a significant force on Taiwan as the response to any significant supply of arms by China to Russia such that China is either forced to start an invasion way too early or lose any chance of retaking it in any circumstance as it would be WW3 otherwise.
 
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