Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

Status
Not open for further replies.
steve45 said:
Can you blame them? Neither the separatists nor the Russians are holding up their side of the deal...
Click to expand...

I think the issue is that even if separatists do everything to a tee - Ukranians do not want to implement agreements.

The part about constitution change to federalize is a no go point for Ukranian leadership. Regardless of what happens.

But any Ukrainian government that agreed to giving the Donbas special status might not survive a public backlash. In 2015, then-Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko put forward constitutional amendments on decentralization that were bitterly opposed by Ukrainian nationalist groups. Riots in Kyiv left three law enforcement officers dead.
Click to expand...

https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/09/europe/minsk-agreement-ukraine-russia-explainer-intl/index.html
 
Last edited:
PDotOOP.png

From Dark Blue to Dark Green goes from Absolute Hostility to Absolute Ally with Lilac being Neutral and White being Don't Know.
Going from top to bottom - Canada, Lithuania, Poland, UK, USA, Turkey, France, Germany, China, Belarus and Russia.

From December 2021.

I dunno... I don't think Ukraine likes Russia enough to allow a visibly pro-Russia government the sort of power they had with previous Ukrainian governments.
 
Enkore said:
I think the issue is that even if separatists do everything to a tee - Ukranians do not want to implement agreements.

The part about constitution change to federalize is a no go point for Ukranian leadership. Regardless of what happens.



https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/09/europe/minsk-agreement-ukraine-russia-explainer-intl/index.html
Click to expand...
Its gotta be difficult, effectively giving up sovereign territory. Even though the ethnic majority of the region is Ukrainian(albeit not a huge majority). There is still large Russian support in the Donbass. Its never going to go down well with the rest of the Ukrainian population. I dont see a solution to the situation that satisfies everyone. I know what would effectively avoid any further conflict but I dont see that being a realistic option for the current Ukrainian government if they wish to stay in power.
Nobody realistically wants conflict in this situation. I bet even Putin dosnt want it, but stubbornness and not wanting to show weakness from either side is walking the region into conflict
 
Last edited:
StriderX said:
PDotOOP.png

From Dark Blue to Dark Green goes from Absolute Hostility to Absolute Ally with Lilac being Neutral and White being Don't Know.
Going from top to bottom - Canada, Lithuania, Poland, UK, USA, Turkey, France, Germany, China, Belarus and Russia.

From December 2021.

I dunno... I don't think Ukraine likes Russia enough to allow a visibly pro-Russia government the sort of power they had with previous Ukrainian governments.
Click to expand...


What about the OPZH party that ranks in top 3 and flies to moscow for tea time? Gotta be careful with ratings, Ukranians themselves do not trust many of these.

Plus imagine living in Ukraine and being secretly gay for Putin - Do you think you'll be announcing that in a poll??? Post Soviet countries are always wary about answering anything in fear of the KGB.
 
Last edited:
Enkore said:
What about the OPZH party that ranks in top 3 and flies to moscow for tea time? Gotta be careful with ratings, Ukranians themselves do not trust many of these.

Plus imagine living in Ukraine and being secretly gay for Putin - Do you think you'll be announcing that in a poll??? Post Soviet countries are always wary about answering anything in fear of the KGB.
Click to expand...

I don't doubt that being an issue, but the 'ethnic' and language-based demographics would support it to a degree.

Anyway, I think Kyiv should just pull the rug from under Moscow's divide-and-conquer and faux pro-democracy schtick by implementing referendums in all oblasts except Donetsk and Luhansk where only areas under Ukrainian control would be balloted. The question would simply be whether the people of said region wish to remain united with Ukraine or to join the Russian Federation.

Of course it would involve accepting that Crimea is lost and so too would the areas under the separatists in the East, but it could serve to defang the Kremlin so long as it goes the way that Kyiv wants which is obviously a risk, but the wording of the question ought to be enough.
 
StriderX said:
I don't doubt that being an issue, but the 'ethnic' and language-based demographics would support it to a degree.

Anyway, I think Kyiv should just pull the rug from under Moscow's divide-and-conquer and faux pro-democracy schtick by implementing referendums in all oblasts except Donetsk and Luhansk where only areas under Ukrainian control would be balloted. The question would simply be whether the people of said region wish to remain united with Ukraine or to join the Russian Federation.

Of course it would involve accepting that Crimea is lost and so too would the areas under the separatists in the East, but it could serve to defang the Kremlin so long as it goes the way that Kyiv wants which is obviously a risk, but the wording of the question ought to be enough.
Click to expand...

They are not going to do that because if you read Ukranian media and Officials - they seem to think they can take Russia head on.
 
Enkore said:
They are not going to do that because if you read Ukranian media and Officials - they seem to think they can take Russia head on.
Click to expand...

The fact that it serves the nationalists not to lose an inch of the country as well as also serving the West for various reasons isn't lost on me. I hope it works out for Kyiv in the end whatever it's current strategy is, but I think in the wider conflict of identity there is more to it than just throwing people with rifles at the problem.
 
StriderX said:
The fact that it serves the nationalists not to lose an inch of the country as well as also serving the West for various reasons isn't lost on me. I hope it works out for Kyiv in the end whatever it's current strategy is, but I think in the wider conflict of identity there is more to it than just throwing people with rifles at the problem.
Click to expand...

I don't think Kiev has any strategy, they are just surviving on daily basis. Sooner or later the noose will tighten from whatever direction.

If we really wanted to start a war over there, all we have to do is ship Ukrainians some advances SAMs or promise to build an early detection radar that would scan deep into Russia. They'd be willing to accept and that would most likely prompt Russian invasion.

Better yet, provide them a roadmap into NATO within couple years.

I think the picture describes what Ukranians think of Minsk agreements. Considering the polls show something like 80% are against them.

https://euromaidanpress.com/2021/12...ose-minsk-accords-in-current-form-poll-shows/

Its a bit of a problem when Biden, Putin and whole of EU are constantly saying 'implement MINSK' and it seems no one in Ukraine wants it.

original.jpg
 
Last edited:
Rroff said:
Poland to allow US citizens through the land border without advanced checks, etc. though I still expect the borders to be chaos and closed initially if things do kick off.
Click to expand...

Why would you expect them to be closed? I mean the reason at the moment is covid, but they're making that exception in advance for US citizens, I can't see them turning away ex-pats etc.. trying to flee at the land border.

I mean part of the reason for US troops deploying to Poland is to receive US citizens escaping Ukraine, they're not going to close the border to them.

Sure there likely will be chaos at the border in the event of an invasion.

steve45 said:
Even though the ethnic majority of the region is Ukrainian(albeit not a huge majority). There is still large Russian support in the Donbass.
Click to expand...

Though ethnic Russian doesn't necessarily imply support for Russia. You'll see support for Ukraine from both Ukrainian and Russian speakers but yeah there are obviously some ethnic Russians in the east taking a pro-Russian stance.

Enkore said:
What about the OPZH party that ranks in top 3 and flies to moscow for tea time? Gotta be careful with ratings, Ukranians themselves do not trust many of these.
Click to expand...

Be careful though not to conflate support for Ukraine aligning with Russia/being in the Russian sphere of interest with support necessarily for Putin and some of his actions.
 
Hmm lot of unusual US air traffic though some of it I can only guess at from past patterns. US Boeing RC-135U Combat Sent inbound to Europe, looks like Poseidons and Constant Phoenix active in various locations but they aren't broadcasting id just popping up sometimes when civilian traffic is near. From the Gulfstreams looks like VIPs and "VIPs" are being moved out.

I think the US is serious in that they believe it will kick off Wednesday.
 
Rroff said:
Hmm lot of unusual US air traffic though some of it I can only guess at from past patterns. US Boeing RC-135U Combat Sent inbound to Europe, looks like Poseidons and Constant Phoenix active in various locations but they aren't broadcasting id just popping up sometimes when civilian traffic is near. From the Gulfstreams looks like VIPs and "VIPs" are being moved out.

I think the US is serious in that they believe it will kick off Wednesday.
Click to expand...
Do you work nights or are you a vampire?
 
qCksM51.png


From the MLAT data and the Lossiemouth heading I'm assuming that is a Poseidon - for some reason the icon isn't facing the direction of travel on those.

JSX8DSB.png


This one isn't a very usual sighting in Europe.
 
“The RC-135U Combat Sent is designed to collect technical intelligence on adversary radar emitter systems”

They’re off to nick the commie radar tech
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top Bottom