Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

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They are but upgraded T-72 are still inferior to upgraded T-64.
It's not like Ukraine are still using tanks as they left the factory 40 years ago, these things are upgraded/modernised over time, when new things are added to the latest models they get retrofitted to the older ones during their maintenance cycles. Hence it's unlikely there's any original T-72/64 in active service in either Russia or Ukraine.

I'm not trying to be rude but it kind of shows you don't know that much about tanks and are just quoting things from Wikipedia without understanding what you're quoting (which is perfectly understandable as the USSR/Russia/Ukraine made an absolute disaster of the numbering scheme for their tanks) so I will try and explain the hierarchy of Soviet/ex-Soviet tanks:

From best to worst (factoring in latest upgrades):

1: T-14 - Not combat tested yet, but as the first "new" tank produced by any former Soviet state this century this automatically tops the list.
2: T-84 - Developed from the T-80 the Ukrainian T-84 is considered the best evolution of a Soviet era tank line.
4: T-80 - Based on the T-64 the T-80 was designed as a more modern replacement.
3: T-90 (1990s model) - Developed from the T-72 (technically an upgraded T-72, originally designated T-72BU) with some of the upgrades of the T-80 added.
5: T-64 - The main tank of the USSR throughout the 60s/70s/80s, never exported even to allies.
6: T-90 (2000s model) - Remember when I said they made a disaster of the numbering scheme? 21st century T-90s are actually a weaker model designed for export, even the Russian ones as they couldn't afford to order 90's spec armour.
7: T-72 - A highly mass producible uncomplicated tank designed as a budget alternative to it's big brother the T-64.
8: T-54/55/62 - The early cold war MBTs of the USSR, retired by both Russia and Ukraine but still in use in many poor third/second world countries, included here just so we have a baseline for worst.

This list is of course accurate only when comparing tanks that have received their latest respective upgrades.


But to reiterate the original point, no Russia would not easily win the ground war without air superiority due to superior tanks and tank numbers as they have neither.

T72 models exported were inferior to the T72 Ural models which the Soviets used. The T64 was designed as an advanced model but had a ton of teething issues,but the Soviet military really favoured it.

The T72 was created independently from a competing tank plant/design bureau,as a non-sanctioned internal project,who wanted to show they could make a similar performing tank using less risky technologies. In the end they too won a contract when the T64 programme started to have issues.

The T64 had a compact engine which had real problems,and a carousel autoloader which is far more vulnerable to detonation when the armour is penetrated,than the simpler bussel type used in the T72. The T72 technically was inferior initially as it was a cheaper tank,but as time progressed the T64 turned out to be a bit of turd as it was expensive to make,the compact engine had reliability issues,and it started to fall behind in actual performance,etc. This is why the T72 ended up being modified to the extent later T72 models were as good,and probably more mobile than the T64 models at the end. It was much easier to modify.In fact later T72 models were heavier and had better armour.

The T80 tried to fix the problems which plagued the T64,and took on lessons learnt with the T72. So they replaced the engine with a gas turbine to improve power to weight ratio,and the armour took some lessons from later T72 variants. It also mounted the most advanced Soviet era fire control system in the T80U. However,the gas turbine still had the issue of greater fuel consumption,and both the T64/T80 have the carousel autoloader which is a huge weakness of both tanks. This is why the T64/T80 had issues in combat - look what happened in Chechnya. The T72 by extension has a lower likelihood of ammo cookoff compared to the T64/T80.

The T90,took the lessons learnt from the T80 and put them into the T72. There were two parallel projects in the late 1980s - Object 187 and Object 188,which attempted to further improve the T72B. The Object 187 was far more advanced,and Object 188 was designed as a cheaper fallback. By the late 1980s it was quite clear,the T64/T80 lineage was being abandoned in favour of the T72 based one.

The Object 187 T72 would have been the most advanced Soviet tank if it entered service:

https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/russia/t-72-object-187.htm
https://murtie-djokobayu.medium.com/meet-object-187-the-other-t-90-5ac1fe573dee

However,the USSR collapsed and it lead to the cheaper alternate "advanced next generation" T72,the Object 188,which was branded the T90. However,that was not enough because the collapse of the USSR lead to a huge collapse in defence procurement.

In the 1990s,it was common for Russia to export its best equipment so the R and D was paid for countries like India. An example isn't just the T90 but also the Su30MKI which ended up in Russian service as the Su30SM. So the Indians wanted a better T72,and Russia exported an improved T90 called the T90S to India,and this was the basis of the T90A the Russia bought at a later date.

The T90 is significantly better than the T72 models encountered decades ago,especially with the newer ERA. The latest models,even make changes to the autoloader system to improve survivability and has even made attempts to better protect the ammo storage. But all of these tanks,for the most part,tend to have weaker all-round protection than any western tank,and rely far more on ERA and active protection systems than passive armour,especially with them being around 20 tons lighter.

The lessons learnt from the T90 programme,have been implemented in improving 100s(probably over a 1000) of late model T72 and T80 MBTs. One of them is the use of advanced ERA,and other forms of armour added to the hulls. The other aspect is the wholesale improvement of the FCS. You can see this with the T72B3M/T72B4,which not only integrated ERA,but new generation FCS and the engine from later T90 models,and the T80BVM which again shares systems from newer T90 models.

The issue with Ukraine is not that they cannot make decent improvements to their T64 and T80 MBTs,its more the case they have limited production capability,from years of underfunding of their defence industries because of corruption. Only now it is starting to probably get the attention it required. If anything the area they have been traditional good at,is engines....hence why the Russians for decades used Ukranian engines(especially those for ships),before Crimea essentially ended that. It's taken years for Russia to actually manage to get over the loss of Ukrainian ship engines. Its why China was after Motor Sich.

They have very capable engineers,but look at their contract for T84 MBTs to Thailand. It was beset by production issues for years:
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/r...iver-tanks-thailand-turned-chinas-vt-4-184553

The Thai decision to acquire the VT-4 was a result of Ukraine’s failure to deliver T-84 Oplots on schedule. Originally, the decision was between the T-90S and the T-84 Oplot, but American diplomatic pressure resulted in the selection of the T-84 over the T-90S. However, due to various problems and the war in Ukraine, Ukraine has delivered the ordered T-84s at a slow rate. Thus, a program was initiated in 2016 to select another modern tank to take the place of the T-84. The new contenders were the Chinese VT-4 and the Russian T-90MS. Again, the post-coup Thai government’s pivot towards China and waning Russian influence in the region resulted in the selection of the VT-4 over the T-90, despite the T-90’s greater export success and the VT-4 being an unproven design. The Thai contract is the first adoption of the VT-4.

In the end Thailand had to turn to China with its VT4.

/sigh

I'm not sure if you're not reading the posts you reply too, or if maybe English isn't your first language. But I will try one more time to explain it to you.

If Russia invade Ukraine they are not going to send every single tank, soldier and plane in the entire country to do it, this would be stupid. Ukraine on the other hand can commit every single tank, soldier, etc to the resulting war as the equipment is already there and not needed for anything else (I.E guarding borders with China or NATO/EU members). This means Ukraine can utilize 100% of their military inventory, Russia cannot. This means that Russia's advantage in tank numbers disappears because they're not all there, this means they would have even numbers at best and be outnumbered at worst.

It also means that because they would be relying mostly on T-72 plus some T-80/90 and Ukraine would be relying mostly on T-64 plus some T-80/84 that Russian tank units would be facing equipment of equal performance at best and superior performance at worst.

I'm sorry but I cannot explain it any simpler than this.

Most of these tanks mount a variation of the same Soviet era 125mm gun - basically whatever side hits the tank first will win the engagement. The FCS will be an important factor in who wins first as is the kinetic penetrators used. Again,you are not appreciating the improved T72 and T80 models,are taking parts from the later T90 models,including the newer ERA and FCS.

They are no M1 but against peer tanks they are more than capable.

Rob Lee on Twitter is following this all. Russia has perhaps put 60% of their BTGs in range of Ukraine. They have been moving armour for weeks,and apparently equipment from last year didn't technically leave. They have a massive railway network and that involves movement of heavy equipment even from Siberia,and elsewhere.

They also under the guise of "exercises" have moved equipment to Belarus. The issue is if an invasion happens,its going to be on multiple fronts,possibly with Belarus being involved too.

So if this is a bluff its a real high stakes one.
 
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I just see that where they off to Spain?
Well, were ever they are going, it's probably unrelated to Ukraine. B-52 wouldn't have much use in that potential conflict.
 
Again,you are not appreciating the improved T72 and T80 models,are taking parts from the later T90 models,including the newer ERA and FCS.

The problem with Ubersonic is that he does not seem to grasp any tank modifications happening in Russia to older platforms. I've mentioned countless times that Russia does not field original T-72 as it was 50 years ago. These days its T-72BM3+ which are vastly improved tanks. Meanwhile Ukraine has big issues with upgrading their tanks as they never really cared about it. While Russians have over 1400 'modernized' T-72's that are capable of modern day combat, Ukraine with its T-64 only has 100 or so Bulats.

Ukraine does not have the numbers or quality of the Russian tanks. It's exactly opposite of what he claimed the situation to be. T-72BM3+ which there are over 1400, will be matched mostly against T-64 that have barely any upgrades. That's before you consider Russians fielding upgraded T-80's.

Secondly, for some reason he thinks that a fully upgraded T-90 is total trash and ranks it below T-64 Bulat somehow. Which would leave anyone wondering what is the thought process there. When in reality T-90M/S can be seen as equal of T-84 Oplot of which Ukraine has literally 5 units.

Then he went on to explain that Ukranian BUK SAM has ballistic missile intercept capability. Which is just mind-boggling. He quoted BUKM3 article as his evidence - a vastly upgraded system that Russia has deployed in 2013.

He did get the thing about Ukraine being left with some very nice factories at dissolution of USSR right. However, their bread and butter were Tanks and considering their lack of success in this department with upgrades or manufacture of new models. How can one think they could upgrade their SAMS to same or beyond level of Russians when Ukraine did not have any SAM factories on its territory.

His analysis has been completely off from reality.
 
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52,000 ft up. That's pretty high. Getting some good intelligence on russian troop movements i suspect

Its too far from Russian border to gather than intelligence I'd assume per flight radar. If anything it looks as if its looking what are the Ukranians up to quite frankly.
 
Its too far from Russian border to gather than intelligence I'd assume per flight radar. If anything it looks as if its looking what are the Ukranians up to quite frankly.
Its radar and sigint packages dont need to be close to get useful data.
 
The problem with Ubersonic is that he does not seem to grasp any tank modifications happening in Russia to older platforms. I've mentioned countless times that Russia does not field original T-72 as it was 50 years ago. These days its T-72BM3+ which are vastly improved tanks. Meanwhile Ukraine has big issues with upgrading their tanks as they never really cared about it. While Russians have over 1400 'modernized' T-72's that are capable of modern day combat, Ukraine with its T-64 only has 100 or so Bulats.

Ukraine does not have the numbers or quality of the Russian tanks. It's exactly opposite of what he claimed the situation to be. T-72BM3+ which there are over 1400, will be matched mostly against T-64 that have barely any upgrades. That's before you consider Russians fielding upgraded T-80's.

Secondly, for some reason he thinks that a fully upgraded T-90 is total trash and ranks it below T-64 Bulat somehow. Which would leave anyone wondering what is the thought process there. When in reality T-90M/S can be seen as equal of T-84 Oplot of which Ukraine has literally 5 units.

Ukraine had some of the best Soviet equipment left behind on its territory including a large amount of its IL78M tankers,Mig29C fighters,the last uncompleted Slava class cruiser,etc but ended up selling off a lot of it on the cheap,or letting it rot. I suspect they never really expected to be in a war with anyone,let alone Russia so the military wasn't really invested into. They definitely have the knowledge as the Ukrainian military and aerospace industries were deeply integrated with Russia,as the latter bought most of their output until the hostilities broke out.

The thing is Russia used Syria as an easy way to test out their weaponary,so a lot of the equipment got further improvements based on this. Then they create weapons for export which pays for the R and D,and in-service testing and roll that back into the equipment they buy,and then apply it as further upgrades to older versions. Its probably why the US did CAATSA,as they figured out how they were improving their materiel.

A lot of people don't seem to appreciate the original story of the T64 and T72,and how in the end both programmes fed off each other with later variants. Also the thing is that the biggest differentiator is the FCS and the range of the kinetic penetrators used. You can see that with the T-72B1MS White Eagle which hardly improves armour protection,but improves the main gun and FCS significantly.

It's probably why Ukraine has received a lot of ATGMs,to bulk up their armour. That is probably the bigger threat Russia faces IMHO.
 
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Ukraine had some of the best Soviet equipment left behind on its territory including a large amount of its IL78M tankers,Mig29C fighters,the last uncompleted Slava class cruiser,etc but ended up selling off a lot of it on the cheap,or letting it rot. I suspect they never really expected to be in a war with anyone,let alone Russia so the military wasn't really invested into. They definitely have the knowledge as the Ukrainian military and aerospace industries were deeply integrated with Russia,as the latter bought most of their output until the hostilities broke out.

A lot of people don't seem to appreciate the original story of the T64 and T72,and how in the end both programmes fed off each other with later variants. The thing is Russia used Syria as an easy way to test out their weaponary,so a lot of the equipment got further improvements based on this. Then they create weapons for export which pays for the R and D,and in-service testing and roll that back into the equipment they buy,and then apply it as further upgrades to older versions. Its probably via the US did CAATSA,as they figured out how they were improving their materiel.

Ukraine had more Tu-160's bombers at dissolution than Russia has now. Just to put things into prespective, only China, Russia and USA have strategic bombers and Chinese ones are pretty much a joke. It is a H-6 which is Tu-16 copycat version of a 1950's plane.

After Stalin was dead who was (Georgian) mind you. There seems to be a lot of evidence that Soviet Leadership favored Ukraine on same level as Russia. You do not put that much defence and technology manufacturing centers in an opressed colony. But that is a whole different conversation. I just hope that people can see why Russians are ready to go to war over Ukraine, to them its a vital country that they want to keep in their sphere of influence. I do not justify their actions and they are barbaric - I am simply saying, that its their point of view on the situation. We need to understand our enemies point of view so that we can make smart moves.
 
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Ukraine had more Tu-160's bombers at dissolution than Russia has now. Just to put things into prespective, only China, Russia and USA have strategic bombers and Chinese ones are pretty much a joke.

After Stalin was dead who was (Georgian) mind you. There seems to be a lot of evidence that Soviet Leadership favored Ukraine on same level as Russia. You do not put that much defence and technology manufacturing centers in an opressed colony. But that is a whole different conversation. I just hope that people can see why Russians are ready to go to war over Ukraine, to them its a vital country that they want to keep in their sphere of influence.

I am going to say this - the jostling between the superpowers was a tragedy during the Cold War....for mostly poorer countries and millions died in the various conflicts,and regime changes which happened. It seems we are back to square one again.
 
I am going to say this - the jostling between the superpowers was a tragedy during the Cold War....for mostly poorer countries and millions died in the various conflicts,and regime changes which happened. It seems we are back to square one again.

I think we're in a worse situation now than during height of cold war. Russia is backed into a corner, its not the Soviet Union that once was - mostly independent from the rest of the world. Once our sanctions come down, they are screwed. My fear is that they go all out and do roll into eastern europe and perhaps even into some western parts of it.

Because regardless, if they do not, their chances of survival are pretty low. The sanctions will choke them out and they will be over-taken in military's department completely once we decide to put our minds to it. So they might think the Risk-Reward ratio is justifiable by hoping that U.S just simply folds and pulls out of EU under threat of nuclear strikes on its homeland.

As I said before, the issue is that if/once Russia crosses into Ukraine their fate is sealed. Their only way to get out of that is to bite off huge part of Europe. Its do or die for them, meanwhile for the USA they are so far from do or die they might just say 'screw it, we'll fight another day'. Because like I said before, even if whole Asia falls to China and whole EU falls to Russia. USA will still be in game to challenge both of them by simply controlling north and south America.

If anything the Kurds in Syria and Afghanistan mess has shown to us that Americans are ready to cut ties at any moment - and don't feel too bad about it.

Whose to say if Russians roll into Latvia with tactical nuke use, the Americans won't just say - 'yeah no, we good'. After all, they'd have to call for conscription and people will be fighting somewhat decent (slightly inferior) army and not men on donkeys with ak-47's. I'm sure Russians would resort to tactical nuke use in case of any mobilization and pushback by the U.S.

So how do you convince Bob from Iowa to be conscripted - to go fight Russians in Latvia under threat of being nuked on battlefield. Then on top of that with a very real threat of having whole world end in a nuclear winter. All for Latvia. I just think it will be a tough cookie to sell. Considering that Bob from Iowa who is most likely a republican seems to have a hard on for Putin.
 
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Because like I said before, even if whole Asia falls to China and whole EU falls to Russia. USA will still be in game to challenge both of them by simply controlling north and south America.

For some reason when I read this paragraph, it sparked a vision in my mind of the boardgame Risk and I found myself trying to recall how many armies North and South America were worth :)
 
I think we're in a worse situation now than during height of cold war. Russia is backed into a corner, its not the Soviet Union that once was - mostly independent from the rest of the world. Once our sanctions come down, they are screwed. My fear is that they go all out and do roll into eastern europe and perhaps even into some western parts of it.

Because regardless, if they do not, their chances of survival are pretty low. The sanctions will choke them out and they will be over-taken in military's department completely once we decide to put our minds to it. So they might think the Risk-Reward ratio is justifiable by hoping that U.S just simply folds and pulls out of EU under threat of nuclear strikes on its homeland.

As I said before, the issue is that if/once Russia crosses into Ukraine their fate is sealed. Their only way to get out of that is to bite off huge part of Europe. Its do or die for them, meanwhile for the USA they are so far from do or die they might just say 'screw it, we'll fight another day'. Because like I said before, even if whole Asia falls to China and whole EU falls to Russia. USA will still be in game to challenge both of them by simply controlling north and south America.

Personally,if these countries want to join NATO,its not much Russia can do about it TBF. The more they react badly,the more it is sort of a self fulfilling prophecy. In the end China wins from all of this as they gain even more access to Russian resources.

China,TBF is cunning and is mostly playing a long economic game via BRI.
 
Personally,if these countries want to join NATO,its not much Russia can do about it TBF.

Well that's what we all thought. Then all of sudden they stirred up a storm in Georgia and Ukraine. Both countries wanting to join NATO.

Like I said in geo-politics and players this big. We need to understand red lines and Risk/Reward ratios in their mind.

This reminds me of Cuban crisis. Obviously for USA this was a huge red line and they were ready to pretty much go to war over it. The Soviets pulled out while securing nuke removals from Turkey. Because it simply was not worth the risk for the reward.

All I'm saying, whether we like it or not - we need to take those equations into consideration if we want to avoid a war. Yes sometimes it goes against our morals etc. However, if we can pull out of Afghanistan and let locals be screwed over simply because we are 'Le Tired'. Surely we are much more flexible in situations where we can lose millions in a war or end whole world all together.
 
Sad thing is I can immediately spot FORTE12 on flight radar before I even click on it to check LOL just by likely position vs other air craft.
 
I'm just curious can we see any Russian military's planes on Flighradar? I never seen one. Why do we in west allow to be tracked?

Not as often but they do pop up - mostly stuff only shows on flight radar when its activity brings it into a mix with civilian traffic - you rarely see fighters, etc. other than when doing exercises in civilian airspace. I see Russian air force now and again and most of their other organisations like military police, military logistic companies, etc. show up - as do their presidential fleet aircraft!

1) Provide Proof that Ukranian BUK has been upgraded to comparable as BUKM3. Like You said, Russians struggle to maintain Ukranian tech and yet somehow Ukraine in past couple years after way less budget has not only managed to maintain but upgrade Russian SAMS to a same level as most modern Russian SAM system upgrade. All while begging for Patriots because they are saying they can not even keep their s-300 and Buks active due to lack of parts.

Ukraine isn't acting alone here though - other countries have also worked on Russian hardware and/or reverse engineered it - by all accounts the US has replicated the S-300 system. If you delve into some of the murkier parts of the internet you can find complete documentation for quite a lot of older Russian military hardware including BUKs - including training manual, service manual, complete documentation of operation logic and systems block diagrams, blue prints and other technical diagrams for the hardware and so on. Some of this is due to implementation in simulators like DCS, other reasons include that the hardware is in use in countries like Syria, etc. often by rebels and so on who don't have any official material.

Ukraine also inherited a lot of military infrastructure and knowledge when they parted ways with the Soviet Union combined with external help upgrading many of these systems is completely feasible.
 
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Ukraine also inherited a lot of military infrastructure and knowledge when they parted ways with the Soviet Union combined with external help upgrading many of these systems is completely feasible.

This is T-72 argument all over again though. Of course everyone knows about S-300 and Original BUK. Its almost 50 year old tech.

The whole question is about upgrading it. Russia has upgraded BUK and is working on upgrading S-300 if not yet already done so. The technological advancements in systems like S-400 or future S-500 get passed down generations below.

As I'm aware, all Russian S-300 and maybe BUKS are all upgraded tech. Based on Ukrainian performance in the tank upgrade sector - which was their bread and butter during soviet times. I am hesitant to believe that without any prior infrastructure or experience in SAM tech, Ukrainian's have managed to upgrade their systems to same level as Russians. If it was that easy, Ukrainian's would not be asking for Patriots which they are constantly turned down for.

Especially considering that majority of SAM performance is made out of radar and actual missile tech. I just do not believe that Ukrainians have upgraded their Buks to BUKM3 level that is capable of intercepting ballistic missiles with a large certainty. I think the BUK-M2 had that capability but its certainty was not that great. Even BUK-M2 is a late 90's development I believe. So Ukranians were not included into the upgrades.

The original BUK does not have ballistic missile interception. As I said previously, I'm not sure the Ukranians were able to upgrade it that much because that would require upgrading of radar and missiles themselves. Considering that most news focused on the struggles of spare parts to just keep them running.
 
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Id love to know how much Ukraine has received there literally C-17 going in and out of Poland and Ukraine all the time.

All part of that $200 mill security deal.
I'm just curious can we see any Russian military's planes on Flighradar? I never seen one. Why do we in west allow to be tracked?

Ive seen a fair few miltary from Russia pop up from time to time on https://globe.adsbexchange.com/

Them B-52 now about to pass Gibraltar and you have 3x Stratotanker from Mildenhall going somewhere.
 
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