Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

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Nerusy said:
Western side will say our strong resolve and unity prevented invasion of Ukraine. Russian side will say see we didn't invade, all the panic was for nothing. Everybody is happy.
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You have Ukraine in the middle who has been screwed over. I think that would be a good solution for everyone at this point though. However, I think that if we would have been less dramatic about this whole ordeal - we'd damage Ukraine less and people would see us as more credible.

Considering we draw down, I personally think we've handed Putin too well of a fat check for this whole ordeal.

  • He damaged Ukranian economy
  • He damaged trust between Ukraine and NATO/US. As there has been a lot of backtalk even in public about whether invasion is real and about US/NATO being dramatic.
  • He will use this as propaganda for months for domestic consumption how west hates Russians
  • He will also showcase that western media/politician are basically a propaganda machine that is not to be trusted.
I don't like this outcome at all quite frankly, that is way too much of a fat check for Putin. His ultimate goal is to turn his domestic population into mindless zombies who hate NATO. This gives him a lot of that. It is not good for us at all.
 
Nerusy said:
Question is, how is calling out an attempted coup prevents said coup or deters Russia from following through with the coup?

As an example, according to Russia's view what happened in Donbas is just citizens and local military that revolted against transitioning Ukrainian central government yet Russia still got sanctioned for it, because everybody obviously can see that it was orchestrated by the Russian state. If the US came out back than in 2014 and said hey hey, Russia is about to create civil unrest in Donbas and flood the area with Russian forces/mercs, do you think Russia would have said "ok you got me I wont do it"?
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Makes it a lot harder for these situations to evolve organically and raises general awareness which always acts as a deterrent for some reason. It is much easier to pull everyone along when they don't understand what is happening.
 
Rroff said:
Makes it a lot harder for these situations to evolve organically and raises general awareness which always acts as a deterrent for some reason. It is much easier to pull everyone along when they don't understand what is happening.
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The issue is that your average Ukranian does not believe that Russia is invading. If Ukranians are not listening to US about imminent invasion, what says that they listen to about coup etc?

My concern is that our saturation has caused all of our information to fall on deaf ears. When Zelenskiy comes out and says US needs to provide proof or shut up (in a lot more diplomatic way) that definetly shows some strain there. Danilov just said there is no proof that Russia is about to attack. People on streets in Kiev and Kharkov are not panicking either. Mind you, this is after Biden and Boris have said Russia will attack very shortly.

This shows that our warnings of coup or invasion are falling on deaf ears and no one is listening at least in Ukraine. If all this is falling on deaf ears, how is it preventing anything quite frankly? Apart from diminish our weight of words.

For international market, I don't think Putin cares. In his mind, even if he is right, the west will make him a bad guy.

They just closed and relocated US embassy from Kiev to Lviv.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/14/politics/us-embassy-kyiv-closure/index.html

At this rate, Ukraine will become a no go zone for anyone and anything quite frankly. This is not a good scenario at all. I believe next move would be to suspend all air-traffic and perhaps maritime too. Whether directly or through insurance companies citing such dangerous situation and refusing to insure cargo planes or ships as well as passenger jets. There are already reports that leasing companies demanded that certain Ukranian airlines move their leased planes outside of Ukraine due to imminent invasion

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/3403895-ukraine-will-not-close-its-airspace-nsdc.html

Danilov 1 hour ago said Ukraine will not close its airspace as there is no reason for it. I think this might come to backfire in international media - considering we in west think the invasion is mere hours away. Once again, there is a huge gap between western official and Ukranian stance

Perhaps the 'ugly' fact can be that if there are passenger jets in air over Ukraine, Russians would not dare to risk getting those shot down - so their SAMS etc would be limited.
 
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While you’re worrying about some ex Soviet republic… I’m off to those island nabbing scoundrels of Mauritius. I think a three month fact finding tour whilst we discuss tax havens and cocktails is in order. Not Rule Britannia anywhere, anymore.
 
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...itics/ukraine-embassy-russia-us-b2015012.html

The part about destroying all equipment is rather scary. That means the invasion come so shortly that there is no time to move said equipment - which is definitely not cheap.

There is also some indication there is clear intel that shows that Putin will not push ahead into Western Ukraine. Hence why everything is being moved over there.
 
Enkore said:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...itics/ukraine-embassy-russia-us-b2015012.html

The part about destroying all equipment is rather scary. That means the invasion come so shortly that there is no time to move forces.

There is also some indication there is clear intel that shows that Putin will not push ahead into Western Ukraine. Hence why everything is being moved over there.
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UK has been moving equipment like that out - interesting the US is taking the path of destroying it - but it seems their way - a lot of US bases in Afghanistan, etc. they just trashed them rather than go to the effort of removing stuff - albeit in some cases that was due to the security situation and the potential vulnerability point with a drawdown but not always.
 
Rroff said:
UK has been moving equipment like that out - interesting the US is taking the path of destroying it - but it seems their way - a lot of US bases in Afghanistan, etc. they just trashed them rather than go to the effort of removing stuff - albeit in some cases that was due to the security situation and the potential vulnerability point with a drawdown but not always.
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Well if they are destroying it because its like Afghanistan then that is very concerning. Since as we all remember, the situation was so bad that they did not even have time to destroy majority of equipment altogether - let alone ship it out.

Again, I'd be surprised if the insurance companies after that would not pull their policies for operating in Ukraine. This is another huge hit for Ukraine in economical sense in short future.
 
bingham67 said:
HOMER11 having a long day out around the black sea.
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I'm wondering what the Draken Europe stuff is up to around the UK - some interesting flightpaths given everything else going on with the Voyagers and Typhoons, etc. maybe unrelated but looks like they are monitoring something infrastructure wise.

EDIT: Looks like they regularly provide things like operational readiness training, etc. for the RAF.
 
Enkore said:
wvY4FIp.png

Perhaps that is the latest data from the Forte flight?
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The whole coverage feels like this

 
Enkore said:
wvY4FIp.png

Perhaps that is the latest data from the Forte flight?
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There are a lot of videos cropping up of huge convoys of Iskanders, etc. on the move today - I've not bothered trying to verify any of it to see if they are actually moving towards Ukraine, etc.

EDIT: This one is fairly easy to locate, etc. (though not of movement today)


Interesting setup, there does appear to be a base in the region with an artillery range, also a depot nearby, so possible they are returning from exercises to their normal location... but with the composition and proximity to the border somewhat concerning.
 
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Rroff said:
There are a lot of videos cropping up of huge convoys of Iskanders, etc. on the move today - I've not bothered trying to verify any of it to see if they are actually moving towards Ukraine, etc.
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Well if that and US report that 'air bombardments' can begin at any moment are true. Then what I said previously, about Russians hoping for a pinpoint destruction of all vital locations through use of Iskanders and aerial bombardment is true. Now how effective they are at it, that is another question. I think it would defend a lot whether US/NATO offers radar counter measures through its own drones or awacs flying behind borders.

I do have to say, if Putin does invade. He is a total moron.
 
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