Imagine we end up in a nuclear war one day not because we hate other countries but because we need something else to talk about to distract from domestic problems.
Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar
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Imagine we end up in a nuclear war one day not because we hate other countries but because we need something else to talk about to distract from domestic problems.
I think for the actual NATO members it would not be the same as what is unfolding here. If Putin marched on Estonia I think that would result in direct military action from NATO. If not then NATO would just be disbanded and Putin would then just take over all the ex CCCP countries with maybe only resistance from the USA.
There is a reason that Ukraine won't ever be permitted to become a NATO member while Putin is running Russia and that reason is what we are seeing unfold now.
Fortunately, despite the rhetoric/propaganda on Russian domestic news, at least for now Russia doesn't appear to have any interest in engaging a NATO country/forces. The only Western facing forces are their normal defensive and some token additional deterrent and this build up is purely focussed and optimised on Ukraine. At least from what has come out of Russia - can never be sure the source and intentions with the stuff which crops up on OSINT though satellite imagery tends to confirm it.
It's the Johnson way, if he could get away with Nuking some tin pot country somewhere to change the news agenda he would do it.
For an invasion of somewhere like Ukraine it isn't really that many, those numbers at Normandy were the beachhead for bringing in a larger army - quickly bolstered to over 2million men. Russia would have to go fully into a war time footing, mass conscription and converting large swathes of industry into producing military equipment, etc. to build up to those kind of numbers and currently they aren't doing it.
For a proper invasion of Ukraine, against an organised and combat effective Ukraine, they'd need more like 200-300K troops to spearhead it and a total of around a million including all the support and reserve forces, etc. to control the ground they've taken as the frontline moves on.
I won't say an invasion won't happen - but I'm pretty sure the plan, with what Russia has put together, if there was to be an invasion would be to capitalise on some kind of attempt to destabilise Ukraine internally first to cripple their ability to fight back effectively.
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Soldato
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i bet nothing will happen, on second thought i pray nothing happens. A conflict on European soil with a nuclear superpower, what could go wrong?
I think the NATO treaty could be in for a rough ride over the next few years. USA possibly getting more aggressive as they cling onto power will make Germany and France want to absolve themselves and form an EU military.
Could also see some countries leave NATO if they are influenced by Russia enough. Orban is good buddies with Putin and if Russia takes Ukraine then could see Russian tanks in Budapest in time for Putin's 70th birthday.
Ukraine may seem not worth fighting for but it has been a vital buffer for 8 years now. If Russia steamrolled Crimea and the rest of Ukraine back 2014 then it would have set a precedence for more land grabs around the world.
In any case it seems to be territory acquisition season now. Maybe not invasion season, but there appears to be a need for the likes of USA, Russia and China to stake claim to sovereign territories. I'm expecting China to install more military bases in Africa soon.
Could also see some countries leave NATO if they are influenced by Russia enough. Orban is good buddies with Putin and if Russia takes Ukraine then could see Russian tanks in Budapest in time for Putin's 70th birthday.
Ukraine may seem not worth fighting for but it has been a vital buffer for 8 years now. If Russia steamrolled Crimea and the rest of Ukraine back 2014 then it would have set a precedence for more land grabs around the world.
In any case it seems to be territory acquisition season now. Maybe not invasion season, but there appears to be a need for the likes of USA, Russia and China to stake claim to sovereign territories. I'm expecting China to install more military bases in Africa soon.
Well like I said, it does not help that we officially have absolved ourselves to signed Budapest Memorandum. The Turkey incident where they shot Russian jet over their territory and where NATO said they would not honor Article 5 trigger by Turkey - is another huge blowback.
Like I keep saying, Putin is dismantling our united front piece by piece. In 2018 during Kerch incident, Budapest Memorandum was something to be afraid of. Furthermore, the whole 'hybird warfare' by Russians without declaring war - was done to avoid pitching themselves against UK and USA.
Now BJ and Biden have successfully wiped their arses with it. Quite frankly, to go out and be so cavalier about NOT engaging Russians in a country you promised to protect (Budapest Memo) is just ridicolous.
Like I said, we've given Putin a huge blank check here. All we have to show for it, is that if things de-escalate we'll say that our screaming that Russia will invade has sued for peace. That's it. Even that will probably not be taken seriously. I'm sure if nothings comes of this, Ukranians would not be too thrilled by our actions considering how much hit their economy took.
Quite frankly if Putin does not attack, he walks away with a pretty huge win here. Hence why I said, if Putin attacks he's a total moron.
Like I keep saying, Putin is dismantling our united front piece by piece. In 2018 during Kerch incident, Budapest Memorandum was something to be afraid of. Furthermore, the whole 'hybird warfare' by Russians without declaring war - was done to avoid pitching themselves against UK and USA.
Now BJ and Biden have successfully wiped their arses with it. Quite frankly, to go out and be so cavalier about NOT engaging Russians in a country you promised to protect (Budapest Memo) is just ridicolous.
Like I said, we've given Putin a huge blank check here. All we have to show for it, is that if things de-escalate we'll say that our screaming that Russia will invade has sued for peace. That's it. Even that will probably not be taken seriously. I'm sure if nothings comes of this, Ukranians would not be too thrilled by our actions considering how much hit their economy took.
Quite frankly if Putin does not attack, he walks away with a pretty huge win here. Hence why I said, if Putin attacks he's a total moron.
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I saw a BBC article about a British guy in Ukraine and he's not leaving... it seems pretty mad, like the beginning of covid etc...
Like fair enough if you're of an age/fitness where fighting is an option but otherwise, this is like early March 2020, make some preparations. IF you were staying put you'd stock up on water, tape your windows, get some sandbags discretely in place, inside your flat/house against one or more exterior walls so you have somewhere to stay low behind if/when fighting is nearby. Make sure you've got your prescriptions up to date, buy a fire extinguisher and first aid equipment etc..etc.. etc..
Ideally though, if not fighting and if you're in the position where you could afford to take a holiday in country for a week or two now would be the time to maybe go and spend a week or two camping, with your family, in the countryside or in a guest house/holiday cottage in a small town/village to the West of Lviv near the border with Poland or indeed near the Romanian or Slovakian border.
If Putin doesn't invade and then starts to withdraw troops then great, you had a 2 week holiday... but if he does you'd be pretty thankful.
It just seems silly to be complacent with stuff like this - just like with Covid... with Covid I made sure to get out of London prior to lockdown, fortunately, the virus wasn't as severe as it might have been but still was a good decision, spending lockdown in the countryside and not in the middle of a city.
The "Ukraine is my home" mentality from the British guy seems silly, get yourself to the West of the country at the very least and pay your ex-wife to move the kids there too for a bit. London is my home, it's a dumb place to be at the start of a pandemic though, Eastern Ukraine is a very dumb place to be right now.
Like fair enough if you're of an age/fitness where fighting is an option but otherwise, this is like early March 2020, make some preparations. IF you were staying put you'd stock up on water, tape your windows, get some sandbags discretely in place, inside your flat/house against one or more exterior walls so you have somewhere to stay low behind if/when fighting is nearby. Make sure you've got your prescriptions up to date, buy a fire extinguisher and first aid equipment etc..etc.. etc..
Ideally though, if not fighting and if you're in the position where you could afford to take a holiday in country for a week or two now would be the time to maybe go and spend a week or two camping, with your family, in the countryside or in a guest house/holiday cottage in a small town/village to the West of Lviv near the border with Poland or indeed near the Romanian or Slovakian border.
If Putin doesn't invade and then starts to withdraw troops then great, you had a 2 week holiday... but if he does you'd be pretty thankful.
It just seems silly to be complacent with stuff like this - just like with Covid... with Covid I made sure to get out of London prior to lockdown, fortunately, the virus wasn't as severe as it might have been but still was a good decision, spending lockdown in the countryside and not in the middle of a city.
The "Ukraine is my home" mentality from the British guy seems silly, get yourself to the West of the country at the very least and pay your ex-wife to move the kids there too for a bit. London is my home, it's a dumb place to be at the start of a pandemic though, Eastern Ukraine is a very dumb place to be right now.
T-80Us and lots of different types of self-propelled howitzers by the looks of it.
EDIT: Videos aren't very clear but looks like newly applied reflective id markings...
EDIT2: Interesting there seems to be a lack of mounted coaxials in those videos though the quality isn't great to see what kit is on there - no idea how old the footage is but normally if they were moving to forward positions they'd be in place (I think).
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Do you mean we can't trust a word their leaders say? Lol
The YT channel behind this has been linked a few times here but the slides have some quite useful information to understanding some aspects of what is going on:
https://odysee.com/@S2Underground
Might take a bit of reading as some information only makes sense in the light of later diagrams, etc. but gives a decent overview as to the potential and limits involved.
https://odysee.com/@S2Underground
Might take a bit of reading as some information only makes sense in the light of later diagrams, etc. but gives a decent overview as to the potential and limits involved.
The only questions on the morality of all this are.
How many ex satellites of the USSR would wish to revert to that status if asked?
Would Ukraine as a buffer to Russia with a new installed government be a happier, freer, more prosperous state?
Answers none and no.
How many ex satellites of the USSR would wish to revert to that status if asked?
Would Ukraine as a buffer to Russia with a new installed government be a happier, freer, more prosperous state?
Answers none and no.
Why would article 5 have been invoked? Turkey was not attacked, they had a violation of thier airspace that's it.
No one declared war and turkey delt with the problem.
You are making a mountain out of a mole hill with that argument.
I'm sure there is plenty of stuff we aren't seeing - but if an invasion was likely on the 16th I'd have thought the US and/or NATO would have overlapping persistent ISR, etc. flights up by now around Ukraine. Though there is overall quite a lot of US air assets in motion this morning generally at a higher level than normal.
Man of Honour
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Wonder if this could be a message to Ukraine in response to the chat over the last few days about renouncing plans to join NATO (which will never be allowed anyway)
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