Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

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BongoHunter said:
After the amount of effort Russia has expended getting that much kit and manpower into place, hugely increased maintenance / prep requirements for equipment, training requirements, food/water, fuel expenditure plus all the stuff you'd never see on the news (human intelligence, air and naval asssets, space, planning, internal politics ect.).

There's no way they'll be willing to walk away with nothing. Russia's population appears to largely support their govs position - and the guys at the very top aren't going to suffer that badly if there are economic sanctions, no matter how severe.

I think they'll get eastern Ukraine at a minimum - they have an overwhelming military advantage over the Ukrainian forces, and the cost of stopping them will be to high for the West to want to take on.
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Depends how much of that military movement is real - there is no doubt they've built up a lot of equipment and started to move a lot of man power - but from my casual digging on some of the videos cropping up on Twitter a lot of what purports to be units moving to the front are forces which have been moved in months ago and for some reason - possibly readiness drills or other exercises - moved away from Ukraine then back again to their bases to make it look like far more is moving than actually is - though the build up is still substantial.

Given all that has been going on though I do find it suspect that Russia will want to walk away from this without getting something significant out of it, which so far they don't seem to be. The lengths which have been gone to are high and quite expensive for Russia including sending lots of ships the long way around to the Black Sea.
 
Rroff said:
I do find it suspect that Russia will want to walk away from this without getting something significant out of it, which so far they don't seem to be.
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I guess if they walk away at this point, they have at least learned how we will react to the situation should they try something like it again, which in itself is very valuable information. Best case scenario is that they are just probing the limits of what they can get away with?
 
Considering Russia walks away now, Putin has achieved the below.

1) He made UK and US declare that they will not protect Ukraine, therefore tearing up Budapest Memorandum. Biden said specifically, US troops WILL NOT face Russian troops in Ukraine. This is basically U.S admitting that its pulled from Budapest Memorandum.

2) He tanked Ukranian economy due to capital drain. Even Oligarchs started fleeing.

3) Solidified position at home that west officials are clowns and propaganda (as long as he does not attack)

4) Caused rift in trust between Ukraine and US, UK. Ukraine is ignoring our warnings almost completely on official level. If anything, there is even backtalk.

5) If he pulls back and does not attack - that would only be seen as a benefit not a loss at home. Russians do not think the war will happen, he does not need to attack to not look weak.

6) Further rift in Germany vs others on nord stream pipeline. Scholz refused to even commit to cancelling pipeline themselves if Russia invades.

7) All western instructors have left Ukraine in fear of invasion. No training etc is happening.

8) Even some people in the west are doubting our media and officials regarding this matter.

9) Closure of US Embassies in Kyiv and destruction of all equipment. Along with closure of majority of other Embassies of other countries.

10) There are reports that 'sensitive' equipment that UK and US had on the ground in Ukraine is being evacuated. No idea specifically what it is.


It is in putins best interest to walk away quite frankly. I hope hes not that dumb to actually attack and wipe away all the before mentioned benefits.
 
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I have to admit listening to Biden just there emphasise that "The United States will defend every inch of "NATO" Territory wtih the full force of American power" isn't exactly reassusing.

It almost sounds like a green light to Putin to march into Eastern Ukraine (which is very much not NATO territory).
 
Enkore said:
7) All western instructors have left Ukraine in fear of invasion. No training etc is happening.
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I suspect a lot of training is still going on - maybe not quite the same effectiveness but a lot of stuff can still be done remotely, they will have got Ukrainian instructors up to speed, etc.
 
Rroff said:
I suspect a lot of training is still going on - maybe not quite the same effectiveness but a lot of stuff can still be done remotely, they will have got Ukrainian instructors up to speed, etc.
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Well lets just agree that teaching how to fire Javelin over Zoom call is not exactly same as doing it in person.
 
chrismscotland said:
I have to admit listening to Biden just there emphasise that "The United States will defend every inch of "NATO" Territory wtih the full force of American power" isn't exactly reassusing.

It almost sounds like a green light to Putin to march into Eastern Ukraine (which is very much not NATO territory).
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Commentators have been saying it is full of "expectation setting".

Enkore said:
Well lets just agree that teaching how to fire Javelin over Zoom call is not exactly same as doing it in person.
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That is why we gave them a bunch of NLAWs hah - you pretty much can teach that over Zoom :s
 
So there may be more to this 'invasion at 3am rumour'

I've just been passed that exact same info from someone actually in the Belarusian military who has been first hand helping with the build up there every night the for last week or so. Not sure if he heard that from military sources or elsewhere though!
 
XeNoN89 said:
So there may be more to this 'invasion at 3am rumour'

I've just been passed that exact same info from someone actually in the Belarusian military who has been first hand helping with the build up there every night the for last week or so. Not sure if he heard that from military sources or elsewhere though!
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I'm curious should it kick off what sequence of events would take place outside of Ukraine i.e. would the Russians have gone as far as to try and cut internet connectivity, disrupt power grids and other soft disruption more globally at the same time to generally sow confusion in the opening hours.
 
XeNoN89 said:
So there may be more to this 'invasion at 3am rumour'

I've just been passed that exact same info from someone actually in the Belarusian military who has been first hand helping with the build up there every night the for last week or so. Not sure if he heard that from military sources or elsewhere though!
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3am our time or 3am Belarus time?
 
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