Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

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Orangeade said:
Because I'm not as subservient and warmongering like you British? Should I live in a terrace house and wave my little flag happy for a war for a chance to get away from my hellscape lol.
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Noble intentions pave the road to hell. You can only stay out of a conflict so long if someone wishes ill against you - appeasement has been shown throughout history to not work and cost more lives and freedoms in the long run.
 
Rroff said:
I think it naive to think we can do anything in support of this war without consequence, but I don't think we should be bowed by consequence either.

Additionally we need to be observant and protect what makes this country able to stand up to the likes of Russia - maintain a robust defence capability, the ability to rapidly logistic and back it up and our nuclear deterrent. It is almost certainly Russia will be motivated to try and erode it, include by methods outside of the "rules" as we understand them, and likely have tried in the past - which may include trying to infiltrate the political or social processes to try and rid the country of our nuclear deterrent, etc.

Nuclear even tactical is fairly unlikely, though not impossible, while doing so would put Putin's arse on the line but the potential for tactical escalation, especially if Russia is losing isn't out of the question. Again we shouldn't be cowed by it - bullies like Russia are only encouraged by getting their own way - if they see it works once they will play it again.
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Article 5 provides protection for NATO, it's a line that people will not cross as it will mean nuclear war. So I'm not sure why we would have to be cowed.

I certainly support nations building up defense and it makes sense for the UK to gave trident (especially since most people hate them :D )

So if you agree with me even partially that there will be consequences, what do you think they will be? And should people have a say in it? And what is the line in which retaliation even if ****** is going to be seen as inevitable?
 
Rroff said:
Noble intentions pave the road to hell. You can only stay out of a conflict so long if someone wishes ill against you - appeasement has been shown throughout history to not work and cost more lives and freedoms in the long run.
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Switzerland has a strong army, backed up with natural geography as a recognition of that. But it still requires thought as to the cost of such support.

It's easy for the yanks to throw a few billion of old equipment when they don't have to share the continent. Europe is in danger if it goes south, not them...
 
Orangeade said:
So if you agree with me even partially that there will be consequences, what do you think they will be? And should people have a say in it? And what is the line in which retaliation even if ****** is going to be seen as inevitable?
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At this point I can only guess - but it would be naive and foolish to think Russia is just sitting back when it comes to for example the supply of Storm Shadow and not considering how to respond, whether that is something they might try now or kind of like we've done with this war in response to previous actions sponsored by the Russian state on our shores like the incident in Salisbury by robustly responding in support of Ukraine in this war.
 
Orangeade said:
Switzerland has a strong army, backed up with natural geography as a recognition of that. But it still requires thought as to the cost of such support.

It's easy for the yanks to throw a few billion of old equipment when they don't have to share the continent. Europe is in danger if it goes south, not them...
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One of the things the US has learnt the hard way is that they are not immune to what happens in Europe and ignoring it in the short term has ended up costly for them or potentially costly for them later - hence being more proactive these days when it comes to operations in Europe.

EDIT: Staying out of things, in some theoretical conquest of Europe, doesn't help Switzerland though, Russia would eventually turn its eyes to it but which point it would be isolated and alone. That said I don't think Putin intended any conquest of Europe - some of his biggest motivations seem to be a legacy of restoring the USSR and that the greater social freedoms and increasing quality of life in former, still very Russia linked, countries like Ukraine is one of the few things which is a direct threat to him as it can't just be waved away by propaganda, etc. given the close links between the peoples with family in both Russia and Ukraine and/or Baltic states, etc. the risk there is that if he had easily rolled over Ukraine he'd almost certainly be encouraged to try that again and again and sooner or later you'd see Russian troops on the borders of Poland and so on in the expectation that the West was weak and would just fold further and further rather than fight Russia until it was too late.
 
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Rroff said:
At this point I can only guess - but it would be naive and foolish to think Russia is just sitting back when it comes to for example the supply of Storm Shadow and not considering how to respond, whether that is something they might try now or kind of like we've done with this war in response to previous actions sponsored by the Russian state on our shores like the incident in Salisbury by robustly responding in support of Ukraine in this war.
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And should people then have a say in it?

I've seen nothing but pure propaganda in the press to date. Are people being given the chance of an informed choice in their support of escalation?
 
Rroff said:
One of the things the US has learnt the hard way is that they are not immune to what happens in Europe and ignoring it in the short term has ended up costly for them or potentially costly for them later - hence being more proactive these days when it comes to operations in Europe.

EDIT: Staying out of things, in some theoretical conquest of Europe, doesn't help Switzerland though, Russia would eventually turn its eyes to it but which point it would be isolated and alone. That said I don't think Putin intended any conquest of Europe - some of his biggest motivations seem to be a legacy of restoring the USSR and that the greater social freedoms and increasing quality of life in former, still very Russia linked, countries like Ukraine is one of the few things which is a direct threat to him as it can't just be waved away by propaganda, etc. given the close links between the peoples with family in both Russia and Ukraine and/or Baltic states, etc. the risk there is that if he had easily rolled over Ukraine he'd almost certainly be encouraged to try that again and again and sooner or later you'd see Russian troops on the borders of Poland and so on in the expectation that the West was weak and would just fold further and further rather than fight Russia until it was too late.
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Addressing your edit, article 5 provides a credible deterrent and essentially ensures a nuclear exchange in the event of such escalation. So unless you realistically think Russia would honestly go up against NATO then I don't see any theoretical conquest of Europe ever likely to happen.
 
Orangeade said:
And should people then have a say in it?

I've seen nothing but pure propaganda in the press to date. Are people being given the chance of an informed choice in their support of escalation?
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To be honest it is something I've a huge conflict as to whether people should have a say in it - we've seen with COVID, etc. how so many people have a short sighted perspective on these things and can't see how much they put everything they have at risk in order to avoid inconveniences to their life here and now. Unfortunately as we've seen with Brexit and COVID even with having all the information there are a startling number of people who won't make what is essentially an informed choice and the stakes here are extremely high, probably higher than most people realise or comprehend - a lot of everyday people here just have no notion of how the equations work for the Russian regime, etc.

That said it goes against everything I stand for not to give people the ability to determine their own path and future but in situations like this I feel we won't necessarily see wisdom prevail and that potentially brings us all down.

Like with the lead up to this war - for me there was very worrying pointers, I couldn't say war was inevitable and imminent but I could certainly say there was a very very high risk, but most people were dismissive until far too late almost in a way of it won't become reality if we deny it hard enough.
 
Orangeade said:
Addressing your edit, article 5 provides a credible deterrent and essentially ensures a nuclear exchange in the event of such escalation. So unless you realistically think Russia would honestly go up against NATO then I don't see any theoretical conquest of Europe ever likely to happen.
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If we just stood back and showed weakness in response there is going to be a point where Russia questions article 5 and the strength of our convictions - maybe a point where they are convinced that we wouldn't risk our "comfortable little lives" for Poland, etc.
 
Orangeade said:
Im just stating that the amount of support we have given at some point will be seen as being involved. Especially with the latest events across the border which the domestic audience is lapping up. If a clear links gets established by someone going rogue and overstepping mark in Ukraine or elsewhere its going to escalate things majorly.
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I don't buy it. Just as we should expect from all the other times one of the major powers has supported a minor power against the other major power there will be no escalation. Russia will lose if it ever draws NATO into the war and Putin knows it. The only path to any kind of success for Russia is waning support in the collective West and war weariness in Ukraine eventually forcing them into accepting Russian annexation of some part of their territory.

Russia didn't escalate over tanks, or air defences, or long range missiles despite it's furious bleating; and it won't escalate over jets or anything else that is realistically getting sent to Ukraine.

Rroff said:
I think it naive to think we can do anything in support of this war without consequence, but I don't think we should be bowed by consequence either.
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The consequences for the war are the economic consequences of freezing out Russia and the small cost of supporting Ukraine. That's all. Russia isn't starting anything.
 
Rroff said:
If we just stood back and showed weakness in response there is going to be a point where Russia questions article 5 and the strength of our convictions - maybe a point where they are convinced that we wouldn't risk our "comfortable little lives" for Poland, etc.
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(for others, not you rroff) As it has been said many times before, Russia only respects strength. (respect probably isn't the right word though). If you let them, they would gladly try to roll the world. People here don't seem to understand this very basic concept.

This was back in 2015. Note how accurate this assessment was.
 
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Mr Jack said:
The consequences for the war are the economic consequences of freezing out Russia and the small cost of supporting Ukraine. That's all. Russia isn't starting anything.
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I wouldn't be so sure - but it is a tricky one for Russia at the moment - anything overt would either be serious enough to trigger article 5 or give us motivation to significantly up support for Ukraine which isn't favourable for Russia at all. But if Russia can figure out a way they will potentially do it.

Putin is a vengeful type he won't just be ignoring what we've done so far even if he has limited options as things stand to respond.
 
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Orangeade said:
Addressing your edit, article 5 provides a credible deterrent and essentially ensures a nuclear exchange in the event of such escalation. So unless you realistically think Russia would honestly go up against NATO then I don't see any theoretical conquest of Europe ever likely to happen.
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I thought someone above had quoted the actual article 5 where it states that we're all obliged to "support" someone attacked, but not how. Humanitarian? Economic? Military aid? Direct military intervention?

OK as I can't stand when people don't attribute, here we are, quote and source, like a real boy. Bolding by me.

And as I'm sure we've all just gobbled Perun's latest on escalation, think about that too. There was a big gamble at the start, desperation might lead to another big gamble? Anyway watch his video it's a delight :).

Nato articles

Article 5​

The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.
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Scougar said:
(for others, not you rroff) As it has been said many times before, Russia only respects strength. (respect probably isn't the right word though). If you let them, they would gladly try to roll the world. People here don't seem to understand this very basic concept.

This was back in 2015. Note how accurate this assessment was.
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Yeah as I've said before his closing remark shows the death sentence a successful Ukraine is for Putin and why he'll expend almost anything to try and ensure Ukraine is a ruin (if he can't have it) if he can.
 
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Rroff said:
Yeah as I've said before his closing remark shows the death sentence a successful Ukraine is for Putin and why he'll expend almost anything to try and ensure Ukraine is a ruin (if he can't have it) if he can.
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Yup. This is exactly why I just shake my head at the naivety of some people here. They simply don't get it. Maybe this video will help them understand.
 
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