Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

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BBC Security Correspondent Frank Gardner had a pretty good take on what may have happened in the call:

One moment Russia looked to be almost on the brink of civil war with Moscow’s most effective ground force, the Wagner group, rebelling in open defiance of the Kremlin. The next, it all appeared to be over with the renegade mercenary boss Yevgeny Prigozhin backing down and withdrawing his forces after a phone call from the Belarus leader. What exactly was said in that phone call? We are not told, but it’s fair to assume that Prigozhin was given some home truths somewhere along the lines of: "Look, you’re on your own here, no one has come out in support for you, and if you continue on this course a lot of blood is going to be spilled, and that’s Russian blood."
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ubersonic said:
BBC Security Correspondent Frank Gardner had a pretty good take on what may have happened in the call:
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An interesting take, except until now I didn’t have this guy down as the type ho cared a jot as to who’s blood was spilled so long as the price was right….
 
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ubersonic said:
This is one of the most bizarre things to happen in any war...

  • First Wagner decide they're marching on Moscow and Prigozhin declares there will be a new president*
  • Then we find out that Wagner have been lying about their ammo shortage for 2+ months while stockpiling MANPADS and captured Javelins and nobody in Russian intelligence noticed this.
  • Then they basically advance unopposed because the Kremlin only task the FSB and the national guard with stopping them (as they're scared the army may join them).
  • Then the air force does almost nothing to stop them, despite them shooting down transports and a couple of helicopters.
  • Then Kadyrov sends his TikTok boys to stop them, who somehow manage to catch up to them, then surrender on mass.
  • Then Lukashenka saves the day.
  • Then Prigozhin gets immunity (and believes it).

Basically everything that happened at every step was the most bizarre thing that could have happened next and raises numerous questions lol. The whole thing now looks super sus, but if it had been staged it would have benefitted literally nobody in Russia, I.E from a propaganda point of view this is worse than anything that it could have directed attention away form in Ukraine. Seeing multiple reports now that the Kremlin basically paid off Prigozhin/Wagner (which would finally be something that makes sense as mercenaries are known to like money).

*Due to losses in translation it isn't actually clear if Prigozhin meant his new president statement as a direct threat of insurrection or his intention to run against Putin in 2024.
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Belarus coup, more like a take over.​

 
Lot of transport flights out of Grozny into Moscow - I can only guess but wondering if Kadyrov is providing additional security LOL.
 
Given they are a mercenary group for hire I'd guess Wagner group gets a general amnesty plus a **** load of cash (you know, mercenaries fighting for the highest payer). As others have said Lukashenka sees how affective Wagner has been even compared to the Russian Military so takes the opportunity to strengthen Belarus's somewhat flaky military overnight and get around the Belarus military refusal to attack Ukraine (cue purge of Belarus military officers incoming). Prigozhin get's legitimacy as Minister of Defence for Belarus and can run his own national army spearheaded by loyal Wagner units, invades Ukraine from the north and keeps any territory Belarus takes in the name of liberating the people from the Nazi Kiev regime, claims to be a hero and wins as president of Belarus at the next opportunity.
 
Macro said:
Prigozhin get's legitimacy as Minister of Defence for Belarus and can run his own national army spearheaded by loyal Wagner units, invades Ukraine from the north and keeps any territory Belarus takes in the name of liberating the people from the Nazi Kiev regime, claims to be a hero and wins as president of Belarus at the next opportunity.
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Slight problem for him there as only:

A person, who is born a citizen of the Republic of Belarus, who is at least 40 years of age, and who has lived in Belarus for at least 20 years right before the election not having and never having had the citizenship of a foreign state or a residence permit or any other document of a foreign state giving the right to bonuses and other benefits, can run for the presidency.
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NB: Lukashenko was born in the Belorussian SSR which gives him a grandfathered claim to having been born in Belarus, it's the same as how the first ten or so presidents of the USA were born in the British Empire yet were still counted as US born.
 
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You have to ask yourself: "what did Prig get out of this?". He has money, land, riches from all over the world and a personal army. He got something big out of this. We just don't know what it is, and it isn't 'his life'. He isn't a runner IMO.
 
I'm still disappointed, not because it failed but because I was hoping it would last the weekend... Now I got to find something else to do tomorrow. Theres no F1 on the weekend, no DH MTB. I might actually have to interact with people, in person...:rolleyes:
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Wonder if we'll see any purges - not sure if true but the reports seem to be that Putin was shaken as to how close Wagner got to Moscow and is beefing up security (possibly why the transport flights from Grozny to Moscow).
 
I'd be surprised if there were no purges. Prigo is at the top of the tea list now he's agreed to be separated from his troops.
 
Rroff said:
Wonder if we'll see any purges - not sure if true but the reports seem to be that Putin was shaken as to how close Wagner got to Moscow and is beefing up security (possibly why the transport flights from Grozny to Moscow).
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I'm fully expecting there to be a purge, I might not play out instantly, people will likely disappear over time. Bigger names may make headlines to ensure a lesson is learned, others i suspect will just disappear. However I fully expect Putin to want full retribution for this act of defiance. I expect him to embody the spirit of Stalin in this playthrough. I mean the majority of his minions will be more worth as compost anyway.
 
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I just can't see Prigozhin being given a chance to solidify any kind of position in Belarus as Putin will be extremely twitchy, and anyways he'll be lucky if he survives the next week or so. He has embarrassed the Kremlin and more specifically Putin, made the country look weak and he has proven he will turn if given the chance. He won't get the fairy tale ending he's hoping but he doesn't strike me as a fool so surely he knows something will be coming. I don't get it.

Irreparable damage to has been done to the reputation of the Russian Federation. They don't really give a **** what the west thinks of them but the likes of China and all of the other countries who have hitched their wagons to this train wreck must be thinking what the hell is this? and as pig-headed as Putin is he will care what China are thinking. I guess that's the best result we can hope for from this mess.

Unless of course this has all been complete horse crap.
 
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ubersonic said:
Slight problem for him there as only:



NB: Lukashenko was born in the Belorussian SSR which gives him a grandfathered claim to having been born in Belarus, it's the same as how the first ten or so presidents of the USA were born in the British Empire yet were still counted as US born.
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The post you quoted said Minister of Defence not President.
 
RxR said:
I'd be surprised if there were no purges. Prigo is at the top of the tea list now he's agreed to be separated from his troops.
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I wonder what the Wagner troops and his subordinates think of him now.

Not only will he himself probably not outlive the week, but he's left his own people to their fate at the hands of MOD as well.

Hard to see Wagner surviving for long after this.
 
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