This is one of the most bizarre things to happen in any war...
- First Wagner decide they're marching on Moscow and Prigozhin declares there will be a new president*
- Then we find out that Wagner have been lying about their ammo shortage for 2+ months while stockpiling MANPADS and captured Javelins and nobody in Russian intelligence noticed this.
- Then they basically advance unopposed because the Kremlin only task the FSB and the national guard with stopping them (as they're scared the army may join them).
- Then the air force does almost nothing to stop them, despite them shooting down transports and a couple of helicopters.
- Then Kadyrov sends his TikTok boys to stop them, who somehow manage to catch up to them, then surrender on mass.
- Then Lukashenka saves the day.
- Then Prigozhin gets immunity (and believes it).
Basically everything that happened at every step was the most bizarre thing that could have happened next and raises numerous questions lol. The whole thing now looks super sus, but if it had been staged it would have benefitted literally nobody in Russia, I.E from a propaganda point of view this is worse than anything that it could have directed attention away form in Ukraine. Seeing multiple reports now that the Kremlin basically paid off Prigozhin/Wagner (which would finally be something that makes sense as mercenaries are known to like money).
*Due to losses in translation it isn't actually clear if Prigozhin meant his new president statement as a direct threat of insurrection or his intention to run against Putin in 2024.