Caporegime
Is there any indication that Wagner are going with him anyway?
Wouldn't surprise me if Lukashenko is going to be displaced, Prigozhin negotiated to takeover running at least the military in Belarus in return for not marching on Moscow.
Chechens were also heading their way to put down wagner, it would have been a huge battle.I think the difference is they were about to come up against the national guard (their equivalent of the TA), the army had been kept away from them and the task of stopping them was given to the NG and FSB (partially to put him in that position, partly in case and army soldiers sent to stop him joined him).
Very much doubt it, you ever wondered why Lukashenko doesn't have boots on the ground inside Ukraine? It was supposed to be a joint operation after all.Wouldn't surprise me if Lukashenko is going to be displaced, Prigozhin negotiated to takeover running at least the military in Belarus in return for not marching on Moscow.
Prigozhin will fortify his position over time and Lukashenko will fall out of a window.
I don't think a single person has said an attack from Belarus is unlikely. What was said was that yesterday's farce was unlikely to have been a slight of hand used to move Wagner to Belarus with out anyone noticing.Well... even a real General thinks of the same possibility, not like the arm chair Generals on here.
Wouldn't surprise me if Lukashenko is going to be displaced, Prigozhin negotiated to takeover running at least the military in Belarus in return for not marching on Moscow.
Prigozhin will fortify his position over time and Lukashenko will fall out of a window.
You're assuming Belarus would tolerate this? I believe their military refused to enter Ukraine because they didn't want to fight their brothers.Wouldn't surprise me if Lukashenko is going to be displaced, Prigozhin negotiated to takeover running at least the military in Belarus in return for not marching on Moscow.
Prigozhin will fortify his position over time and Lukashenko will fall out of a window.
It's possible out of many possible options, the bottom line none of us really know what this was all about and what the end game is for itUnless putin gave prigozhin the codes (or allows him to break into the sites) for the tactical nukes he very handily moved to Belarus a few weeks ago. Prigozhin could then use them, Putin can say not us, it was the traitor in Belarus. Maybe the whole thing was to give putin plausible deniability? Worst case (to him anyway) Belarus cops it.
Theres enough grey areas there to make sure waiverers like China, S Africa or even Hungry don’t come off the fenceAny use of the tactical nukes in Belarus will be attributed to Russia, if they couldn't secure them properly they shouldn't have sent them.
There's also the possibility Poland might want to have a crack at Belarus too. They're not great neighbours.Even if there was a willingness to attack from Belarus, wasn't this prepared for ages ago ? I'm sure after the Russians were pushed back from Kyiv that Ukraine laid loads of mine on their side of the border and a lot of that land is marshes and pretty much impassable for heavy vehicles. Obviously this didn't happen for the Northern edge of the Donbas that's under Russian control - but then that's barely any different to forces coming in from Russia instead.
Look at my previous post, he is going to take over Belarus. Use that army.I dont understand why mr Pringle didnt take his 25,000 men to Belarus as well? I mean ok he probably saw taking Moscow was a too big of a task especially as he probably didn't get the support he was looking for but this has now totally exposed him.
And how effecive is that army compared to the one he just gave up?Look at my previous post, he is going to take over Belarus. Use that army.