Caporegime
Is there any indication that Wagner are going with him anyway?
Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar
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Caporegime
Wouldn't surprise me if Lukashenko is going to be displaced, Prigozhin negotiated to takeover running at least the military in Belarus in return for not marching on Moscow.
Prigozhin will fortify his position over time and Lukashenko will fall out of a window.
Prigozhin will fortify his position over time and Lukashenko will fall out of a window.
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Associate
Chechens were also heading their way to put down wagner, it would have been a huge battle.
Personally I think Prigozhin bottled it after realising a huge battle was heading his way. It would have tied him down long enough for Putin to send reinforcements
Putin doesnt forgive, whatever deal hes made will be broken, Putins deals count for nothing.
Associate
Very much doubt it, you ever wondered why Lukashenko doesn't have boots on the ground inside Ukraine? It was supposed to be a joint operation after all.
His troops said no, there was talk at the start about them refusing and it looks like they did.
Ukraine now has the problem of watching the border now though as Wagner could and probably will attack from Belarus.
Soldato
I don't think a single person has said an attack from Belarus is unlikely. What was said was that yesterday's farce was unlikely to have been a slight of hand used to move Wagner to Belarus with out anyone noticing.Well... even a real General thinks of the same possibility, not like the arm chair Generals on here.
It is something they will have to be aware of/prepared for but even Wagner and the main combat capable forces of Belarus if compelled into the war would be insufficient to accomplish more than the original invasion from the north and mass conscription in Belarus is going to be a messy one.
Putin has rhetorically talked of having to push on Kyiv again though so something to be wary of especially with Prigozhin there who is now probably the most experienced person they have at marching on cities.
Putin has rhetorically talked of having to push on Kyiv again though so something to be wary of especially with Prigozhin there who is now probably the most experienced person they have at marching on cities.
Soldato
Does anyone seriously think that with the amount of surveillance (satellite, aircraft, human eyes) in that region, you could move more than 2 trucks without anyone noticing?
Hole in that, at least on information so far it seems to have been Lukashenko's idea to take in Prigozhin. Certainly a dangerous person to potentially have access to the government or armed forces of Belarus.
Though possibly behind the scenes there has been some agreement with Russia but I don't see it needing justification or theatrics for Prigozhin to take up a position in Belarus.
Associate
You're assuming Belarus would tolerate this? I believe their military refused to enter Ukraine because they didn't want to fight their brothers.
This seems to be backed up by them not being on the ground in Ukraine
With that in mind you think Prigozhin can make them change their mind, not a chance.
Unless putin gave prigozhin the codes (or allows him to break into the sites) for the tactical nukes he very handily moved to Belarus a few weeks ago. Prigozhin could then use them, Putin can say not us, it was the traitor in Belarus. Maybe the whole thing was to give putin plausible deniability? Worst case (to him anyway) Belarus cops it.
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Associate
I don’t see that excuse flying. They are Russian nukes so if they are launched then it is on Russia.
Soldato
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It's possible out of many possible options, the bottom line none of us really know what this was all about and what the end game is for it
Soldato
Any use of the tactical nukes in Belarus will be attributed to Russia, if they couldn't secure them properly they shouldn't have sent them.
Theres enough grey areas there to make sure waiverers like China, S Africa or even Hungry don’t come off the fence
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Soldato
Putin 'suffers his worst daily air force losses of the war'
Putin is believed to have suffered grievous losses as he sought to halt the Wagner 'march of justice' against his corrupt regime towards Moscow as the Wagner Group reportedly killed pilots and crew.
Soldato
Even if there was a willingness to attack from Belarus, wasn't this prepared for ages ago ? I'm sure after the Russians were pushed back from Kyiv that Ukraine laid loads of mine on their side of the border and a lot of that land is marshes and pretty much impassable for heavy vehicles. Obviously this didn't happen for the Northern edge of the Donbas that's under Russian control - but then that's barely any different to forces coming in from Russia instead.
Caporegime
There's also the possibility Poland might want to have a crack at Belarus too. They're not great neighbours.
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Look at my previous post, he is going to take over Belarus. Use that army.
Soldato
And how effecive is that army compared to the one he just gave up?
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