Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

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Twinz said:
And how effecive is that army compared to the one he just gave up?
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Limited combat experience but generally kept in better condition than average for Russia.

The larger part of the army/population would not go willingly in to this endeavour but that might not count for much if Prigozhin was in a position to compel them by force.

Without mobilisation Belarus can only field something like 18K frontline soldiers though and Russia has drawn a good amount of equipment from them.

EDIT: From what I can make out the original intention was for Belarus to move in west of Kyiv on the flanks of Russian forces to cut off Western support being less risky than having Russian forces on the border with Poland.
 
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Rroff said:
The larger part of the army/population would not go willingly in to this endeavour but that might not count for much if Prigozhin was in a position to compel them by force.
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But the Belarusian army already refused to go to Ukraine for Lukashenko, what is Prigozhin gonna do to the army? tell them that if they don't go he's gonna get the army on them? :P
 
Minusorange said:
FzeP2MoWIAAxYk-
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I like that the Wagner forces used red Z's, now we have Russia Hollywood vs Russia Wolfpac :D

Be interesting to see how many get that reference...
 
Kremlin silent.

not much happened, everything is going according to plan..

edit: I forgot they all ran away from Kremlin. duh
 
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ubersonic said:
But the Belarusian army already refused to go to Ukraine for Lukashenko, what is Prigozhin gonna do to the army? tell them that if they don't go he's gonna get the army on them? :p
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Depends how organised the resistance from the army/population might be and different approaches or levels of brutality, etc. there might be between Lukashenko and Prigozhin.

Someone like Prigozhin with some muscle behind them might be prepared to use the stick in a way even Lukashenko maybe won't.

The balance on these things is peculiar at times.
 
Hook said:
Kremlin silent.

not much happened, everything is going according to plan..

edit: I forgot they all ran away from Kremlin. duh
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It's just Sunday, people are taking a day off I imagine after the craziness of yesterday. That's how life works lol
 
Minusorange said:

This guy is pretty clued up when it comes to all things Russia so it's interesting he thinks we'll see something similar happen in 6 months
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As people have questioned in the comments who would be performing this in 6 months time? some of the armed forces might have taken note but generally the response was lukewarm. Only the Chechens really have the forces and organisation to do it but they never seem to be around when there is real fighting to be done.
 
Rroff said:
As people have questioned in the comments who would be performing this in 6 months time? some of the armed forces might have taken note but generally the response was lukewarm. Only the Chechens really have the forces and organisation to do it but they never seem to be around when there is real fighting to be done.
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The Chec's 'look' good, but seems like their actual performance sucks on the battlefield.
 
Rroff said:
As people have questioned in the comments who would be performing this in 6 months time? some of the armed forces might have taken note but generally the response was lukewarm. Only the Chechens really have the forces and organisation to do it but they never seem to be around when there is real fighting to be done.
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There's obviously more to it because as it stands, everybody has lost in this 2 day civil war, Putin looks weak and lost control of his grip on power, Prigozhin has lost Wagner exiled to Belarus, Shoigu is getting culled, none of it really makes sense and none of them are stupid, even invading Ukraine from their point of view wasn't stupid given the information they had at the time, yes it's stupid in hindsight but at the time, even in the West they were expecting Ukraine to fall
 
nsmalley said:
Unless putin gave prigozhin the codes (or allows him to break into the sites) for the tactical nukes he very handily moved to Belarus a few weeks ago. Prigozhin could then use them, Putin can say not us, it was the traitor in Belarus. Maybe the whole thing was to give putin plausible deniability? Worst case (to him anyway) Belarus cops it.
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Didn't you see the US senator warning Russia that one nuclear incident whether it be a tactical nuke or the reactor then NATO would destroy Russia.

He made it clear that radiating Ukraine would blow back to NATO territory and would mean total destruction for them.

It was pretty much a serious threat to not go nuclear.
 
Minusorange said:
There's obviously more to it because as it stands, everybody has lost in this 2 day civil war, Putin looks weak and lost control of his grip on power, Prigozhin has lost Wagner exiled to Belarus, Shoigu is getting culled, none of it really makes sense and none of them are stupid, even invading Ukraine from their point of view wasn't stupid given the information they had at the time, yes it's stupid in hindsight but at the time, even in the West they were expecting Ukraine to fall
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A variation of Hanlon's razor, "Never attribute to tactics that which is adequately explained by stupidity"

The most plausible explanation I've read so far though is that it was driven by some oligarch group who required some concession or other from Putin. They backed Wagner to the point that said concession was made then called them off, protecting Prigozhin in the process. The thing is, even that sounds far fetched against the most likely explanation of "just idiots".

Prigozhin was likely ****** and the Russian lacklustre response and loss of equipment was because their armed forces and equipment is dog **** following 50+ years or corruption.
 
bris said:
Didn't you see the US senator warning Russia that one nuclear incident whether it be a tactical nuke or the reactor then NATO would destroy Russia.

He made it clear that radiating Ukraine would blow back to NATO territory and would mean total destruction for them.

It was pretty much a serious threat to not go nuclear.
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A US Senator can say what they want to be fair, its the equivalent over here of an MP mouthing off, and in this case as it was Lindsay Graham an opposition MP mouthing off
He's always been more of a hawk than many others in regards foreign policy, his comments mean nothing really in regards the USA/NATO actual policy
 
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bris said:
Hes not doing **** with the Belarusian army, they refused to go in for Lukashenka, they are certainly not going in for Prigozhin
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Depends - often there is only a small number of people holding up resistance like that - Prigozhin with even a few hundred Wagner fighters and not so bound by the law might be a different situation.
 
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