Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

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Minusorange said:
Fair enough I thought you were offering the twits analysis, not just the interview, it's like I said earlier, none of them are stupid, not Putin, not Prigo, not the generals, it stinks of a concocted plan, if Prigo was going to do a real coup he wouldn't announce it a day before he can even reach Moscow and send a convoy down a single road which would be easy pickings for a proper air assault and Putin, wouldn't send piece meal units to hold them back or just order some few roads getting dug up

There's a reason this happened that only Prigo, Putin and other Russians high up know why, maybe US intelligence as well if their spy game is on top
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Agree with the general gist of what you've said - but Wagner appears to have had multiple Pantsir units and plenty of Iglas and had them actually active which makes it significantly harder to engage them with air support. Which is ironic as Russia (and it isn't unique to Russia) has lost a lot of stuff due to having air defences but not actually having them active... (even taking into account concerns anti-radiation munitions might be used against them).

EDIT: I also think broadcasting his "intentions" was intentional - the result was a huge focus on Rostov while Wagner used multiple groups to intercept/disrupt the responding parties 2 steps ahead of where they thought Wagner was - for example the relief forces which set out from Voronezh towards Rostov were almost immediately having to deal with the sudden emergence of Wagner producing a threat behind them they'd have to decide whether to push on to Rostov, divide their forces or pull back.
 
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On another note if Dmitri is right in his analysis that hints towards a dangerous situation - Putin would want some way to stamp his authority over the whole episode and the options left are all drastic.

Personally I think Putin's domestic image isn't as damaged by this as people think - the media has likely taken a lot of the barbs off it so that the rank and file of the population probably see it very differently to how we do, but again I'd lean towards the Russia government looking to distract people from the whole thing so that in a couple of weeks time or something most people have forgotten.

Externally Putin doesn't care as much, but at the same time he'll likely still want to make a statement in some way as a reminder to the rest of the world not to take him lightly.

That assumes it isn't entirely theatrics in which case we could be looking at something completely different.
 
It's bizarre to me you can let Wagner get away with blowing a military plane out the sky, people are just expendable.

Ultimately this will be Russia downfall in this war.
 
You can’t have
Rroff said:
On another note if Dmitri is right in his analysis that hints towards a dangerous situation - Putin would want some way to stamp his authority over the whole episode and the options left are all drastic.

Personally I think Putin's domestic image isn't as damaged by this as people think - the media has likely taken a lot of the barbs off it so that the rank and file of the population probably see it very differently to how we do, but again I'd lean towards the Russia government looking to distract people from the whole thing so that in a couple of weeks time or something most people have forgotten.

Externally Putin doesn't care as much, but at the same time he'll likely still want to make a statement in some way as a reminder to the rest of the world not to take him lightly.

That assumes it isn't entirely theatrics in which case we could be looking at something completely different.
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I think the biggest significance is what it says about the leadership in Russia. The fact that Prigozhin was cut a deal must signify that he wasn’t a lone actor in the events yesterday, and the there is a deeper power struggle going on.

I doubt he would have felt safe walking away unless he has assurances from someone who retains meaningful authority and power.
 
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I can't agree at all with the notion this was to intentionally embed Prigozhin in Belarus though at least not without Lukashenko being onboard with it behind the scenes, but that doesn't seem to serve a purpose they couldn't just move him over without dramatics. Far too low odds otherwise that Lukashenko would take the bait and take Prigozhin for it to be worth even trying it - even if Lukashenko had been prepped towards that end in some way.
 
Prigs problem was he didn't get Putin, Putin fled on a flight with the transponder off so no one knew where he went.

He needed a clean kill, without it then Putin can still pull a lot of strings in the background

He spilt a lot of Russian blood, those aircraft had crew and there was some casualties on the ground

He will have to pay the piper, there is no way Putin can accept this, Putin doesn't keep his word, he never does, the fact he is in Ukraine now proves that, he does what he wants and he will want Prigozhins head.

TBH you would expect any leader to do the same, you cant just start a coup, kill a lot of people and pretend it didn't happen. Well unless your names Trump that is
 
bingham67 said:
It's bizarre to me you can let Wagner get away with blowing a military plane out the sky, people are just expendable.

Ultimately this will be Russia downfall in this war.
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A plane plus 6 helicopters. At least with the helicopters Wagner says they were firing at them. The plane though is a transport plane that has no offensive ability at all and Prigozhin says the plane was shot down because at that stage the air defence operators were firing anti air missiles at everything and anything picked up by radar so the plane happens to be in the wrong place at the wrong time
 
One is in the hole, the other is waiting to be pushed

But this interesting discussion between wargonzo and Prigozhin is hilarious

In it, wargonzo tells Prigozhin the reason the ministry of defence isn't sending him more weapons and ammo is because he has too much power and they think he's going to March to Moscow to take over from Putin

Prigozhin says no, he has never even thought about such ideas ;)

 
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Things aren't looking that hot in Germany; the extreme right wing party Afd is making rapid gains in popularity and their leader is a nutter

In a debate the Afd leader stated: The Ukraine war should end now, even if that means handing over territory to Russia and he said it's fair because in 1945 Germany had to hand over territory to Russia as well. He also said Ukraine is run by Nazis and Germany needs to go back to buying gas from Russia and stop supporting USA
 
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A video has appeared on telegram, showing Chechen soldiers in Ukraine executing a Wagner soldier by cutting his throat

Make of it what you will
 
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Grim5 said:
Things aren't looking that hot in Germany; the extreme right wing party Afd is making rapid gains in popularity and their leader is a nutter

In a debate the Afd leader stated: The Ukraine war should end now, even if that means handing over territory to Russia and he said it's fair because in 1945 Germany had to hand over territory to Russia as well. He also said Ukraine is run by Nazis and Germany needs to go back to buying gas from Russia and stop supporting USA
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As before, regardless of what you think of Ukraine, I have no idea how anyone remotely capable of thinking for themselves (and not in Russia's pocket) could hold an opinion along those lines. I don't think Putin has or had designs on Europe but everything the Russian regime has ever done shows that if they'd rolled over Ukraine and/or concessions in that respect were made to end the war they'd replay that card until stopped by force (ergo the war comes to some if not all of our doorsteps in the West). Unfortunately allowing things to normalise with Russia will only enable them to rebuild and become a bigger problem in the future.
 
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Grim5 said:
Things aren't looking that hot in Germany; the extreme right wing party Afd is making rapid gains in popularity and their leader is a nutter

In a debate the Afd leader stated: The Ukraine war should end now, even if that means handing over territory to Russia and he said it's fair because in 1945 Germany had to hand over territory to Russia as well. He also said Ukraine is run by Nazis and Germany needs to go back to buying gas from Russia and stop supporting USA
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Seems they have just the same “brexiteer rightwing conservatism” that we found tied to russian state sponsored donors. The result is a catastrophic economic impact that destabilises the country/EU.
Perhaps they should have a look at the state of the UK after and that now those same voters are looking for the benefits that never appeared whilst the peddling party lost over 1000 seats in one night.

The ukraine is not germany’s property and nor is it 1942-45..
 
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NickK said:
Seems they have just the same “brexiteer rightwing conservatism” that we found tied to russian state sponsored donors. The result is a catastrophic economic impact that destabilises the country/EU.
Perhaps they should have a look at the state of the UK after and that now those same voters are looking for the benefits that never appeared whilst the peddling party lost over 1000 seats in one night.

The ukraine is not germany’s property and nor is it 1942-45..
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If you speak to some Germans they will already believe their issues are worse than the UK, especially during the winter then the joke was about not being to heat their homes. Now it's not being able to afford food etc.. Different country, same issues. The UK seems to think its problems are unique.
 
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Grim5 said:
Things aren't looking that hot in Germany; the extreme right wing party Afd is making rapid gains in popularity and their leader is a nutter
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Any popularity for the AfD is disgusting, but the next federal election isn't for over two years, and there's still no realistic chance of the AfD entering government.
 
Mr Jack said:
Any popularity for the AfD is disgusting, but the next federal election isn't for over two years, and there's still no realistic chance of the AfD entering government.
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Both AfD and The Left lost seats and vote share in 2021, as did the Christian Democrats
 
Grim5 said:
A plane plus 6 helicopters. At least with the helicopters Wagner says they were firing at them. The plane though is a transport plane that has no offensive ability at all and Prigozhin says the plane was shot down because at that stage the air defence operators were firing anti air missiles at everything and anything picked up by radar so the plane happens to be in the wrong place at the wrong time
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Its an iL-22 PP, one of 3 airbourne stand off jammers (the latest type)
 
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