Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

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Rroff said:
On another note if Dmitri is right in his analysis that hints towards a dangerous situation - Putin would want some way to stamp his authority over the whole episode and the options left are all drastic.

Personally I think Putin's domestic image isn't as damaged by this as people think - the media has likely taken a lot of the barbs off it so that the rank and file of the population probably see it very differently to how we do, but again I'd lean towards the Russia government looking to distract people from the whole thing so that in a couple of weeks time or something most people have forgotten.

Externally Putin doesn't care as much, but at the same time he'll likely still want to make a statement in some way as a reminder to the rest of the world not to take him lightly.

That assumes it isn't entirely theatrics in which case we could be looking at something completely different.
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I'd agree with this. There seems to be a lot of halfassed wishful thinking going on, and the usual twitter experts who are just random guessers.

What surprises me is, despite the chaos in the Russian army etc, we are not seeing any major push having been made.

Thus makes me think the events were a complete surprise to everyone, and trying to read them as evidence of much beyond prigozhin's state of mind is probably a fool's errand.
 
HungryHippos said:
He is talking about the twitter account which posted it I think, as the twitter handle says they're a racing driver or was one.

For what it's worth, as much as people disparage Prigozhin, it's pretty clear that his troops at least appear to respect him.

Wish he was less effective but can't have it all.
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Fear him more like, hes a dictator who will get one of his SS to club you to death with a sledgehammer if you put a foot out of place.

Wagner are mercs they are loyal to the paycheck.

Where is he now? In a high rise on Belarus somewhere with faulty window catches?

Where are his men, have they been absorbed by the Russian army?

Prigozhin poked the bear when he should have stabbed it in the heart, he failed

Putin may have a use for him, who knows, but hes now Trump caught up in Putins world whether he likes it or not.

He killed Russians on Russian soil, I doubt very much he will get away with it.
 
From accounts today, Wagnar has about 8000 troops not the 25000 claimed on the road. Also video footage showing AFU having crossed the Dnipro and expanding the bridgehead
 
Grim5 said:
Things aren't looking that hot in Germany; the extreme right wing party Afd is making rapid gains in popularity and their leader is a nutter

In a debate the Afd leader stated: The Ukraine war should end now, even if that means handing over territory to Russia and he said it's fair because in 1945 Germany had to hand over territory to Russia as well. He also said Ukraine is run by Nazis and Germany needs to go back to buying gas from Russia and stop supporting USA
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The Hermans need to be careful in what they wish for. I remember that 3 western armies had their tanks parked in West Germany for the best part of 50 years, partly to counter the Warsaw Pact threat and partly to ensure that the Hermans behaved themselves.
 
...Mercenaries and auxiliaries are useless and dangerous; and if one holds his state based on these arms, he will stand neither firm nor safe; for they are disunited, ambitious, and without discipline, unfaithful, valiant before friends, cowardly before enemies; they have neither the fear of God nor fidelity to men, and destruction is deferred only so long as the attack is; for in peace one is robbed by them, and in war by the enemy. The fact is, they have no other attraction or reason for keeping the field than a trifle of stipend, which is not sufficient to make them willing to die for you. They are ready enough to be your soldiers whilst you do not make war, but if war comes they take themselves off or run from the foe; which I should have little trouble to prove, for the ruin of Italy has been caused by nothing else than by resting all her hopes for many years on mercenaries, and although they formerly made some display and appeared valiant amongst themselves, yet when the foreigners came they showed what they were.

...

I wish to demonstrate further the infelicity of these arms. The mercenary captains are either capable men or they are not; if they are, you cannot trust them, because they always aspire to their own greatness, either by oppressing you, who are their master, or others contrary to your intentions; but if the captain is not skilful, you are ruined in the usual way... The Prince
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It seems that Putin needs to read Machiavelli more carefully.
 
If you choose to keep snakes in your garden don't complain when they turn around and bite you.

I doubt Russia or Putin will learn that lesson though.

Is it true Ukraine has crossed the Dinapro in force? You see these stories on line but it's impossible tell if it's just a raid or a major push. If they can get across in numbers that would completely undermine all those defense lines Russia has spent time building.
 
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Freddie1980 said:
If you choose to keep snakes in your garden don't complain when they turn around and bite you.

I doubt Russia or Putin will learn that lesson though.

Is it true Ukraine has crossed the Dinapro in force? You see these stories on line but it's impossible tell if it's just a raid or a major push. If they can get across in numbers that would completely undermine all those defense lines Russia has spent time building.
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Risky, but the reward is worth it and following Russia’s actions the crossing should be much shorter. The US were reported a while ago to have given them amphibious equipment, although not sure what if any they were given.

They’ll need an insane amount of cover fire or they could lose a lot.
 
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I think a possibly rational explanation for this stupid series of events and Prigozhin's behaviour is that whatever family he had was being held captive to coerce him to stay in Ukraine, but obviously they can't actually kill them because then they have no leverage and he would have every reason to get revenge.

Maybe this whole spectacle was him forcing the issue to get his family released with the offer of exile/disbanding Wagner on the table it was a good trade... unfortunately for Putin he's a spent force that either has no power now or is going to lash out majorly as a means to maintain the lie of his strength.
 
There are a million theories and all of them are equally as boring and reading the same theories parroted over and over by so called experts on Twitter makes me want to pull my hair out, but such is human nature to come up with wild stories to explain the world around them due to a lack of information
 
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I think Zelenskyy should come out and request negotiations given Putin's very light handed dealings with the Chef.
 
Freddie1980 said:
If you choose to keep snakes in your garden don't complain when they turn around and bite you.

I doubt Russia or Putin will learn that lesson though.

Is it true Ukraine has crossed the Dinapro in force? You see these stories on line but it's impossible tell if it's just a raid or a major push. If they can get across in numbers that would completely undermine all those defense lines Russia has spent time building.
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Crossing the Dinapro at this point is not the be all and end all as the Russians still have another bridge to blow up and another river to stop the advance of the Ukraine armed forces.
 
CaptainRAVE said:
Risky, but the reward is worth it and following Russia’s actions the crossing should be much shorter. The US were reported a while ago to have given them amphibious equipment, although not sure what if any they were given.

They’ll need an insane amount of cover fire or they could lose a lot.
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I suppose a constant himars and arty barrage would keep their heads down
 
RxR said:
Not many kremlinites are happy about the Ukraine war, apparently

www.abc.net.au

'Majority of people in the Kremlin unhappy about this war', Russia defector reveals

A former Russian diplomat who defected from his post at the United Nations in 2022 says Vladimir Putin's inner circle is shrinking and most people inside the Kremlin do not support the war against Ukraine.
www.abc.net.au www.abc.net.au
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Thats because they know its doing an insane amount of damage to Russia both financially and military.

If this war was 3 days like Putin promised they would all be praising him. Instead they all got sanctioned and its hit their pockets.

As far as the military goes they also know just how incompetent they really are now, second biggest superpower status reduced to a laughing stock on the world stage.

How long will it take them to be a power on the world stage again? Rebuilding their army, replacing their huge armour and military losses, its going to take many many years

Ukraine aren't getting much done anytime soon though, they still have practically all the east to take back before they try and take Crimea, so while the last couple of days have been a distraction it hasn't changed much in Ukraines favour

This war still has a year or two to run, unless the coup attempt really has weakened Putin to the point he cant go on, even then the next guy still has to find a way out without losing face and that means keeping Crimea at the very least.

Ukraine could dig their heels in and say all or nothing, but that would then put pressure on the west to make him do a deal, we want out of this too.

So many ifs buts and maybes.
 
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