Caporegime
Take a look at this young lad. There will be so many like him.
Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar
- Thread starter areksnumbr1sxylady
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Interesting line of thought but the question is whether others in the regime wouldn't just continue the same trajectory and/or whether they'd be intimidated by Putin being bumped off - people like Lavrov if anything seem worse than Putin. Also the question as to how much of this is actually Putin or he is the face of a group of people - there have been a few claims 2-3 powerful people in Russia are actually the ones pulling the strings - but whenever I've looked into it the information is inconclusive at best.
Prigozhin is such a troll
"Prigozhin boasted Monday that his march was a “master class” on how Russia’s military should have carried out the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. He also mocked the military for failing to protect Russia, pointing out security breaches that allowed Wagner to march 780km toward Moscow without facing resistance."
"Prigozhin boasted Monday that his march was a “master class” on how Russia’s military should have carried out the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. He also mocked the military for failing to protect Russia, pointing out security breaches that allowed Wagner to march 780km toward Moscow without facing resistance."
Another potential angle on this - Putin has wanted Belarus involved in this war from the start and Lukashenko is always under pressure to get more involved with the ever present threat Russia might attempt to take control of the country to that end - Lukashenko might see giving Wagner a base and giving them access to a recruitment pool within Belarus as a way to buy more time by increasing his cooperation/contribution while avoiding bringing his country directly into the war.
There are still far too many aspects which make little sense though - the simplest explanation is still that it is all theatre but to what end - they don't need justification to move Wagner to Belarus for whatever reasons, couldn't depend on Lukashenko taking the bait if it was intended to embed Prigozhin in Belarus for some reason(s) so a lot of the suggestions people are coming up with don't really hold water.
There are still far too many aspects which make little sense though - the simplest explanation is still that it is all theatre but to what end - they don't need justification to move Wagner to Belarus for whatever reasons, couldn't depend on Lukashenko taking the bait if it was intended to embed Prigozhin in Belarus for some reason(s) so a lot of the suggestions people are coming up with don't really hold water.
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One thing I thought about Prigozhins about turn of face is that he does seem to have sold the Wagner troops down the river and how they took it/thought about it
Not that well according to this article
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66023631
Not that well according to this article
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66023631
Soldato
Because you know better?
To be fair just about any other explanation barely makes any more sense right now.
there’a another possibility ;D
Soldato
Yeah I've had to take a break from the thread over the past day or two, place is turning into a clown show.
To be honest, we can always come back to Hanlon's Razor with things like this.
I think everyone has the perception that people like Putin and the Russian government have to be some masterfully intelligent group of people with air tight schemes and plans etc. Sadly, the reality is that a lot of them are probably pretty stupid and are just winging it all like everyone else. Most of the people at the top of things aren't the most intelligent/strong/powerful. They are just the best at convincing people they are...
So essentially, i think the simplest explanation is that they are in a mess and don't know what they are doing (as has been evidenced already by this stupid pointless drawn out war).
I think everyone has the perception that people like Putin and the Russian government have to be some masterfully intelligent group of people with air tight schemes and plans etc. Sadly, the reality is that a lot of them are probably pretty stupid and are just winging it all like everyone else. Most of the people at the top of things aren't the most intelligent/strong/powerful. They are just the best at convincing people they are...
So essentially, i think the simplest explanation is that they are in a mess and don't know what they are doing (as has been evidenced already by this stupid pointless drawn out war).
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Soldato
Russian politics has always been that the leader dies in office, either of old age or by another's hand. Notable exceptions are Putins two predecessors just before and after the end of the USSR.
Soldato
I always cringe when people talk about Putin doubles, “he’ll be fall from a window soon”, “no doubt this means he’ll be found with two self inflicted gun shots to the back of his head”, and all those other hyperbolic things edgy 15 year olds say.
It’s a no brainer with Prigo - he did his push and his supporters started to melt away and he lost confidence. This brought him to the negotiating table. His choices were continue and inevitably die, or negotiate. And the threat of him continuing was too great a risk for Putin, as it would cause huge embarrassment and destabilisation and loss of support of the civilian population for his war.
You even prefixed that it was a crackpot theory. So why get all huffy when someone agrees it is indeed utter nonsense.
Here is an example of a not crackpot theory and one that seems to be the most likely as the details emerge.
This is my thoughts exactly. At the time it seemed Prigo and his merry band were speeding towards Moscow and picking up allied army units along the way. Unfortunately for everyone*, it seems he was not getting as much support as he had hoped and had to back down. It certainly wasn't enough to force through all his demands and he realised his options were running out.
Putin can't simply "push him out a window" as Prigo becomes a martyr. So he gets sidelined and exiled and forced to look weak (or at least weaker than Putin). It was not some wild conspiracy to get Prigo to Belarus where he launches a well hidden and secret plan to invade Ukraine from Belarus. Because they could have done that anyway (and did at the start).
All this entire thing has achieved is make Russia, Putin, Prigohzin and the Russian armed forces look weak and pathetic. Even more weak and pathetic than they already looked since the invasion.
* Everyone being those who wanted Russian leadership to destroy each other and have to get out of Ukraine. (note: this may still happen as this is not over)
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Soldato
I think people are mostly joking when they say those kinds of things, though Russia does have form for people dying in mysterious ways.
Bit like if we were around during King Henry VIII's reign, people would be debating how long his wives keep their heads attached.
By the sounds of it people are miffed at how it's gone so badly so it seems like a no-brainer for any replacement to want to enter negotiations even if previously very pro-invasion.
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