Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

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Unfair?

They voted for him.


You ok dear, seem to be having a bad day.
Bit hot?

Human Rights Watch and several other organisations disagree about the impartiality of the election. With things like this going on;

"In the area between Livezeni and Târgu Mureș in Romania, a bag containing partially burnt Hungarian election postal ballot papers was found on illegal waste dump on 1 April 2022. Every ballot papers were filled out with votes for the opposition United for Hungary alliance or Our Homeland Movement."

You can kind of see why they may have had concerns?

"Analysts found that Fidesz performed strongest in areas with high birthrates[39] and with lower educational or economic attainment" "but, while competitive, was marred by the pervasive overlapping of government and ruling coalition’s messaging that blurred the line between state and party, as well as by media bias"

So, yeah.
 
Hungary should be booted out of both.

The problem is the lack of a mechanism to do it.

The EU has strict rules on entry that ensure countries joining are free democracies with low corruption but no system for kicking a country out when that's no longer the case.

I don't think NATO has any mechanism for removing a nation either.
NATO can quite literally make it up on the spot however I doubt many countries will support such an action which undermines the whole point of the alliance.
 
Isnt kadyrov the ultimate Putin loyalist? he was the one running to his aid to put down Wagners insurrection.

If he is targeted I cant see it being Putin

Well, not everything is necessary as it seems at face value in Russia, Putin may well have good reason to fear people with independent private armies these days (even if they're notionally part of the Russian national guard).

Current rumour is that he's been moved to Dubai as he doesn't trust hospitals in Moscow:

 
I dont see Turkey being the main barrier to ascension.
There's a chance Turkey may try and use the leverage to force some political demands as there's a lot of crossover between NATO and the EU, I.E it's been mentioned that Erdogan may try and make Turkey approving Ukraine to NATO contingent on Turkey no longer being blacklisted from EU membership, though I doubt the EU would be willing to make the trade.
 
Interesting. I figured they were doing something like that to allow them to mate with the old Russian aircraft. Makes sense to move the entire pylon rather than try to adapt the exiting ones.
It also highlights the difference between the Ukrainian and Russian air force, if the Russians had been given a similar setup they would have accidentally launched the Tornado pylon by now xD

But you have to appreciate the photo, a British/French missile, on a German pylon, on a Russian aircraft, defending Ukraine (from Russia). And people say Europe can't cooperate :P
 
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Probably unsurprising but MAKS (huge Russian airshow outside Moscow used to drum up export sales) has been cancelled this year.

The UK MOD thinks this is over two main concerns - "Reputational damage if fewer international delegations attended" and "security concerns" over recent drone attacks in Moscow - both of which sound quite reasonable. Personally I think the first potential reason also has a little more to add around the reason WHY fewer delegates may visit, namely that their equipment, when compared to Western kit being used in Ukraine, looks to have pretty poor effectiveness in comparison, plus the additional risk of big delays should they want to buy something as the Russian's probably don't have the spare capacity in their factories ATM.


Original story -

 
Human Rights Watch and several other organisations disagree about the impartiality of the election. With things like this going on;

"In the area between Livezeni and Târgu Mureș in Romania, a bag containing partially burnt Hungarian election postal ballot papers was found on illegal waste dump on 1 April 2022. Every ballot papers were filled out with votes for the opposition United for Hungary alliance or Our Homeland Movement."

You can kind of see why they may have had concerns?

"Analysts found that Fidesz performed strongest in areas with high birthrates[39] and with lower educational or economic attainment" "but, while competitive, was marred by the pervasive overlapping of government and ruling coalition’s messaging that blurred the line between state and party, as well as by media bias"

So, yeah.

This was the 4th election in a row with similar results.

Whilst there for sure is sone dodgy stuff going on in hungary in elections its a significant take to see that the margin of victory and repeated voting is anything but a population voting for more of the same.

Really this was the collapse of the socialist party and changes to the elections process leaving no real opposition party than any notable change in regards the government who achieved similar results across many elections.

Whats really happening in Hungary is what seems to happen in a lot of nations residing within the EU.
The "safety" (IMO) of the EU means they then seem to lean right and vote for right leaning parties since I am sure much like many economies and groups of people they need someone to blame.

Anyway, back to Ukraine
 
There's a chance Turkey may try and use the leverage to force some political demands as there's a lot of crossover between NATO and the EU, I.E it's been mentioned that Erdogan may try and make Turkey approving Ukraine to NATO contingent on Turkey no longer being blacklisted from EU membership, though I doubt the EU would be willing to make the trade.

Turkey isn't getting into the EU because it doesn't meet the criteria for it. Of the 33 chapters they need to meet they've met 1, Science and Research. The EU isn't changing the rules for membership and especially not for Turkey.
 
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Turkey isn't getting into the EU because it doesn't meet the criteria for it.
I never said it did, that post is referring to Turkey's current backlisted status for EU ascension due to it's occupation of Cyprus (an EU member), there's been talk that Erdogan may make the removal of Turkey's blacklist part of any negotiations on Ukraine's NATO ascension.
 
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Turkey isn't getting into the EU because it doesn't meet the criteria for it. Of the 33 chapters they need to meet they've met 1, Science and Research. The EU isn't changing the rules for membership and especially not for Turkey.

Pretty sure the same can be said for the UK if they ever want to rejoin as well :P
 
I never said it did, that post is referring to Turkey's current backlisted status for EU ascension due to it's occupation of Cyprus (an EU member), there's been talk that Erdogan may make the removal of Turkey's blacklist part of any negotiations on Ukraine's NATO ascension.

That might be a political win for him at home but can you see Cyprus or Greece ever agreeing to that? Even if they did Turkey is still miles away from meeting the requirement and I'm sure several nations would black ball them even if they somehow actually managed to meet the requirements.
 
Interesting, the Russia MOD has released proof that Wagner was always state funded and has received over $20bn to date. That news may help them reduce Wagner's public support at home but surely admitting that your international war crimes for hire PLC was actually a secret part of your armed forces all along is pretty dumb lol. The CIA had the sense to make Air America an actual corporation in order to hide their links xD

In other news Wagner have suspended recruitment for a month while relocating to the Republic of Belarus. Guess they didn't want to join the Russian MOD after all.
 
I can’t see them going all out with what they have.

There's a whole bunch of freshly trained and newly NATO equipped UA forces that haven't been used yet. I believe the current figure is/was around 9 Brigades worth with NATO equipment (approx 40,000 troops) held in reserve for the eventual (hopefully) breakthrough as mentioned in an article a month ago with an update a week or so ago -

Original 40k troops story -


Updated version with 12 new Brigades, 3 being used with 9 held in reserve -

 
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The news is kind of depressing such little gains, they're going to have to commit more forces at some point before their Summer window expires and sun turns to rain and dirt turns to mud

It's tough. The first week of the offensive we saw how quickly they can lose a dozen armoured vehicles to mines and artillery and if that lose rate stayed the same through a theoretical straight line push they'd probably need like 5000 tanks to reach Crimea. That's why when the loss rate is high, they pull back


The crux of the matter is that for the offensive to continue smoothly they need to get the mine fields cleared and the Russian artillery neutralised. They currently don't really have a way to do this, creating a safe zone for armoured vehicles to slowly clear minefields requires strong air superiority


Imo the war looks more like it's heading for a stalemate. Neither side has ability to conduct a combined arms offensive to get past the others defences anymore. It's now just a ww1 trench war and we wait to see who gives up first.
 
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