Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

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Grim5 said:
I found the comments from the Ukranians today interesting

They said the French light tank called AMX-10 will no longer be used in front line duties. The problem is that the tank has no armour; unlike the stories we've heard of Bradley's shrugging off near misses from Russian artillery, the AMX's armour is so thin the Ukranians say they've lost multiple sets of entire crew because fragments of the artillery goes right through the AMX-10 like a knife through butter
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But the AMX-10 isn't really a tank, light or otherwise. It was never designed to be used in that role, and it's armour is not designed to protect from modern anti-tank weapons. It's basically a lightly armoured tank-destroyer which is best suited for supporting fire.
 
Grim5 said:
It's tough. The first week of the offensive we saw how quickly they can lose a dozen armoured vehicles to mines and artillery and if that lose rate stayed the same through a theoretical straight line push they'd probably need like 5000 tanks to reach Crimea. That's why when the loss rate is high, they pull back


The crux of the matter is that for the offensive to continue smoothly they need to get the mine fields cleared and the Russian artillery neutralised. They currently don't really have a way to do this, creating a safe zone for armoured vehicles to slowly clear minefields requires strong air superiority


Imo the war looks more like it's heading for a stalemate. Neither side has ability to conduct a combined arms offensive to get past the others defences anymore. It's now just a ww1 trench war and we wait to see who gives up first.
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They definitely need robust air defences and significant amounts of modern self-propelled artillery to make real progress, otherwise we will see a long, protracted and increasingly costly war both for Ukraine and those external to the conflict. Which would increasingly I think breed the attitude in the West of getting less and less involved with it as people think that'll remove the inconvenience of it from their lives - it won't, at least not forever - in fact likely again something which will be more costly in the long run the more it is put off.

Though there are serious logistic and training considerations we should seriously look at, if possible, getting those older tanks back from places like Jordan and getting them available to Ukraine and getting some kind of ammo production up and running one way or another.

The air war makes me a bit leery - even assuming Russian capabilities aren't even half what they are on paper they still have capable AWACs support for their SU-35s, etc. as well as their S-300/400 complexes - you can't even send F-16s up against that without superior AWACs datalinks and better stand off range munitions, especially if not giving them a setup and free hand to take the war to Russia in that respect and force them to pull their air support back deeper into Russia.
 
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I think many in the media, social media and the general public thought the counter offensive would be a tank rush using invincible armour and call of duty quality soldiers because we are the good guys..

The fact is they are facing a well fortified enemy, in the largest fortifications in the world with no air superiority. Of flipping course it’s going to be slow.. Not to mention it's easier to defend. "wait here if anything moves in that area open fire" . You dont need vdv for that. The only worry is that support for supplying more weapons dries up because of the totally unrealistic expectations of people.
 
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Grim5 said:
I found the comments from the Ukranians today interesting

They said the French light tank called AMX-10 will no longer be used in front line duties. The problem is that the tank has no armour; unlike the stories we've heard of Bradley's shrugging off near misses from Russian artillery, the AMX's armour is so thin the Ukranians say they've lost multiple sets of entire crew because fragments of the artillery goes right through the AMX-10 like a knife through butter
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It makes the MoDs decision to dump tanks for those silly things with roll cages even more stupid.
 
Sky news reporting Russia has taken 700k children to Russia.

Surly 20yrs from now even a small % of that number will rebell against russian occupation, causing unrest within Russia.
 
alchal said:
It makes the MoDs decision to dump tanks for those silly things with roll cages even more stupid.
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The Jackal or Coyote wheeled scout vehicles? The idea with those is either not to be seen/heard in the first place or get in and back out real quick providing onboard covering/suppressing fire for dismounted infantry/SF and GTFO before enemy armour or artillery knows where you are.
 
Terminal_Boy said:
The Jackal or Coyote wheeled scout vehicles? The idea with those is either not to be seen/heard in the first place or get in and back out real quick providing onboard covering/suppressing fire for dismounted infantry/SF and GTFO before enemy armour or artillery knows where you are.
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Jackal, I know they are not ment to be a front line unit like a mbt, but Ukraine has shown that the more armour the better on any vehicle..

Drones would have a field day with them as well.

Just can't wrap my head around the MoD and it's thinking especially with regards to armour.
 
alchal said:
Jackal, I know they are not ment to be a front line unit like a mbt, but Ukraine has shown that the more armour the better on any vehicle..

Drones would have a field day with them as well.

Just can't wrap my head around the MoD and it's thinking especially with regards to armour.
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Fine for the likes of manoeuvre warfare, especially if you can maintain air support, or rapid reconnaissance away from established frontlines but as we've seen a larger scale war quickly moves to a stage where that is marginalised with little substitute for heavy armour.
 
dowie said:
Well, not everything is necessary as it seems at face value in Russia, Putin may well have good reason to fear people with independent private armies these days (even if they're notionally part of the Russian national guard).

Current rumour is that he's been moved to Dubai as he doesn't trust hospitals in Moscow:

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Its probably more to do with Wagner being a threat rather than Putin.

Whilst Prigozhin might be down he wont be out.

I'm sure we all know he is far to powerful to write off
 
alchal said:
Jackal, I know they are not ment to be a front line unit like a mbt, but Ukraine has shown that the more armour the better on any vehicle..

Drones would have a field day with them as well.

Just can't wrap my head around the MoD and it's thinking especially with regards to armour.
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I don’t think a drone would have a chance of hitting one of the fast moving vehicles. They’ve only been hitting slow or stationary objects as far I can see.
 
Stretch said:
I can’t see them going all out with what they have.

Stalemate looks very likely now. The west just didn’t move fast enough.
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That's very much the case, the collective west has dragged it's heals on providing support for Ukraine and now we are seeing the consequences of delayed actions. How many Ukrainians will have to die between now and the end of the year when the F-16's will start to arrive in the country? if they had those planes now it would have helped a lot IMO, now they have substitute precision air bombing with artillery bombardment for which we can't produce enough shells to cope with demand.
 
With stalemate the public, and the west will slowly lose interest imo. I can see support continuing but this is going to go on for a long time by the looks of things. Ukraine doesn't have enough to force a miraculous breakthrough, and the west have allowed the Russians to prepare some formidable defenses.
 
Freddie1980 said:
That's very much the case, the collective west has dragged it's heals on providing support for Ukraine and now we are seeing the consequences of delayed actions. How many Ukrainians will have to die between now and the end of the year when the F-16's will start to arrive in the country? if they had those planes now it would have helped a lot IMO, now they have substitute precision air bombing with artillery bombardment for which we can't produce enough shells to cope with demand.
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The time has long since past where we should be sending what we think they need and we should just send everything we have.
 
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Uther said:
With stalemate the public, and the west will slowly lose interest imo. I can see support continuing but this is going to go on for a long time by the looks of things. Ukraine doesn't have enough to force a miraculous breakthrough, and the west have allowed the Russians to prepare some formidable defenses.
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At this rate they'll have resort to digging mines underneath the defense lines like they did in WW1.
 
An interesting thread on Prigozhin's business empire being dismantled. I wasnt aware that his company Concord were the main supplier of rations. I wonder if this will have any serious impact on ration supplies to the front. I'd suspect that there is a significant stockpile to pull from, or a plan in place to change supply. however as with everything Russia... They never fail to surprise me with incompetence.
Point to note, as with anything twitter. I dont know how much of this is opinion/fact etc.
 
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There isn't a stalemate.
Its active combat with probably 95% of the gains being Ukrainian.

IMO slower progress with the thoughts to keeping as many of their people alive is 100% better than a zerg rush to keep short attention span people "interested"

There is still 2 months+ when the ground will be good for armour. There is plenty of time.
In many areas the Ukrainian forces are starting to reach the main first line of the Main Russian defences.
 
nsmalley said:
I think many in the media, social media and the general public thought the counter offensive would be a tank rush using invincible armour and call of duty quality soldiers because we are the good guys..
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I don't think it was so much that setting expectations, but the dramatic successes Ukraine achieved earlier in the war, towards the end of last year, when Russian troops basically melted away in from of them and they captured thousands of square kilometres over mere days. That set unrealistic expectations for this stage of the war, where things are tougher for all the reasons you outline.
 
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