You really think a few thousand Wagner troops would be crazy enough to try and invade Poland?
They are mercs not conscripts, they get to pick their fights, invading Poland would be suicide and they are clever enough to know that.
Given Wagner is part of the Russian army now (according to the Russian army), then that would be Russia invading NATO and that quickly escalates with Petersburg being attacked and then China attacking Taiwan, and away we go, I suspect a few moves in the first few days:
* Isreal wipes certain states off the map
* Iran attempts to invade UAE
* Iran gets annihilated, there's too easy a target for ambitious Arab states and as a key technology provider for Russia it makes them a target.
* Africa destabilises and probably removes Wagner's remaining assets but China will maintain political control over the ports
* Russia attempts to destabilise other countries populations - Finland, and the nordics etc through the use of nationalistic overtones
* China gets miffed that Russia dragged them into a war that they may not have a solution for, given things like cracks on their carriers etc so may start use of land based arms - India and disputed countries will in the second wave.. as Russia has committed it's only resource (population)
* Turkey decides it's going to have a go.. to take more black sea access..
* South America destabilises and US closes off.
* Argentina attempt to take back Falklands..
* Russia attempts to take arctic resources..
* china attempts to take south china seas resources and starts making it's way down the islands etc..
Probably all brought to a stop when someone decides to use a Nuke for the first time.. and we hit Defcon2..