Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

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There is no doubt that Russia has threatened nuclear attack, now.

www.politico.eu

Nuclear weapons on the table if Ukraine counteroffensive succeeds: Russia’s Medvedev

There would be ‘no other way out’ if Kyiv takes Russian territory, says the former Russian president and current National Security Council deputy chairman.
www.politico.eu www.politico.eu

“There would simply be no other way out” of using nuclear weapons if the Ukrainian offensive succeeded in taking Russian territory, Medvedev, former Russian president and current National Security Council deputy chairman, said in a post on social media.

“Just imagine that the NATO-supported ukrobanderovtsy’s offensive turned out successful, and they took away a part of our land: Then we would have to, following the president’s degree of 02.06.2020, use the nuclear weapon,” Medvedev wrote, referring to followers of Stepan Bandera, a nationalist leader who waged a violent campaign for Ukrainian independence in the 1930s and 1940s.
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And Medvedev currently views the captured Ukrainian territories as "Russian lands."
 
Rroff said:
If we don't honour the spirit of it, it makes it harder for us to negotiate future pacts, whether anyone cares about that or not is another matter but I'd rather be seen standing up to our obligations, even something with a lot of vagueness like this, than walking away.

It is quite clear what the intention was of the Budapest and Helsinki agreements.
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Not only that. A significant portion of the NNPT relies on countries that do not have nukes being in effect defended by others.
If we allow Ukraine to be rolled over its going to be practically impossible (unless willing to pay $$$$) to get other countries that could be threatened by a nuclear power to comply with the agreement.

I mean if we basically confirm the only way to realistically guarantee your survival is a pact (such as NATO) or to own your own nukes then the end result is not hard to predict.
 
FoxEye said:
I do wonder, if Putin did order a nuclear first strike, whether the Russian military would carry out the order. Or rather, under what circumstances they might refuse.
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One of the guys I watch on youtube was analysing this. Most of the changes at senior level were to replace the people also in the chain of command in regards nukes with Putin die hards.
2 years ago I would have said pretty unlikely, now its probably still unlikely, but less so.
 
Lord-Jaffa said:
France will have to beg the US for help again it seems.
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No. This has been brewing in the area for a few years now - after leaving Mail then Burkina Faso , the French anti terror operation found a base in Niger. However, as with the previous mentioned countries, a coup follwoed and teh French left. Niger will want to nomralise relations quickly as France is the top country they export to.
 
FoxEye said:
There is no doubt that Russia has threatened nuclear attack, now.

www.politico.eu

Nuclear weapons on the table if Ukraine counteroffensive succeeds: Russia’s Medvedev

There would be ‘no other way out’ if Kyiv takes Russian territory, says the former Russian president and current National Security Council deputy chairman.
www.politico.eu www.politico.eu



And Medvedev currently views the captured Ukrainian territories as "Russian lands."
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More ridiculous rhetoric from drunk Uncle Medvedev who needs to sit down and shut up. The moment Russia deploy a tactical nuclear missile in Ukraine it's over for Russia. They will be wiped from the map in Ukraine, black sea fleet sunk and pushed back to their borders and China will wash their hands of the whole sordid affair, or maybe they wont? but either way Russia will cease to exist as the nation it once was.

It's very difficult to take any threat seriously from a man that for the past 2 years had rolled out this tired line again and again. Now is the time to make a stand, for everyone's sake.
 
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Russia using nukes it gets nuked Putin evil but he not stupid it all a bluff and his time is coming maybe not for a while but I feel his end is near.
 
Ogoshi said:
Any idea how legit/accurate this is? I recall a while back people were saying it didn't mean much as the value was being propped up - has that now ended hence the gradual decline?
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As far as I can tell from what I've read, Russia's capacity to prop up her currency is approaching its limit. So the decline is now inevitable, and Putin's options are increasingly limited.
 
FoxEye said:
I do wonder, if Putin did order a nuclear first strike, whether the Russian military would carry out the order. Or rather, under what circumstances they might refuse.
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People will have been chosen for those roles based on showing loyalty, etc. and won't necessarily know if the orders are training or the real thing up to a point. That doesn't mean they wouldn't baulk but I'd very much not depend on people in the chain preventing the use of such weapons.
 
Rroff said:
People will have been chosen for those roles based on showing loyalty, etc. and won't necessarily know if the orders are training or the real thing up to a point. That doesn't mean they wouldn't baulk but I'd very much not depend on people in the chain preventing the use of such weapons.
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Lower down the chain, no. I was more wondering if the generals themselves would do it.

Or if Putin might then have a sudden deterioration of his health, from a "previously undiagnosed" condition, or similar ;)

I imagine a lot depends on whether senior people would keep their power and position in a post-Putin era. But then, what use is power and position in a nuclear wasteland? Maybe they enjoy sipping Cognac in their mansions rather than nutrient bars and Potassium Iodide in a nuclear bunker. The top brass and other senior people have a lot to lose.
 
FoxEye said:
Lower down the chain, no. I was more wondering if the generals themselves would do it.

Or if Putin might then have a sudden deterioration of his health, from a "previously undiagnosed" condition, or similar ;)

I imagine a lot depends on whether senior people would keep their power and position in a post-Putin era. But then, what use is power and position in a nuclear wasteland? Maybe they enjoy sipping Cognac in their mansions rather than nutrient bars and Potassium Iodide in a nuclear bunker. The top brass and other senior people have a lot to lose.
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I think the problem there is come to it they probably have a lot to lose either way and they'll all be far too suspicious of each other to work together to remove Putin probably even if it looks like a nuclear strike(s) is inevitable. I highly suspect a lot of the Wagner drama was to draw out people not loyal to Putin.
 
Peter75 said:
More ridiculous rhetoric from drunk Uncle Medvedev who needs to sit down and shut up. The moment Russia deploy a tactical nuclear missile in Ukraine it's over for Russia. They will be wiped from the map in Ukraine, black sea fleet sunk and pushed back to their borders and China will wash their hands of the whole sordid affair, or maybe they wont? but either way Russia will cease to exist as the nation it once was.

It's very difficult to take any threat seriously from a man that for the past 2 years had rolled out this tired line again and again. Now is the time to make a stand, for everyone's sake.
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You honestly think Russia would just accept that and cower away? Whilst I don’t doubt that would be NATO’s response, it wouldn’t end there. Russia would at minimum tactical nuke military bases in Eastern Europe and it would escalate dangerously from there.
 
Rroff said:
I think the problem there is come to it they probably have a lot to lose either way and they'll all be far too suspicious of each other to work together to remove Putin probably even if it looks like a nuclear strike(s) is inevitable. I highly suspect a lot of the Wagner drama was to draw out people not loyal to Putin.
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It's perfectly possible to be absolutely loyal up to a point - and no further.

When push comes to shove, and the order is given - when considering the stakes involved - there would be no winners. They must be intelligent enough to know they would be condemning the world to ruin for one man's ambition. Putting their own families to death. If it's a first strike, that's a heck of a test of your loyalty (and sanity).

And a movement against Putin could happen spontaneously at the last minute (see Wagner) rather than being pre-agreed. And might not need more than a few people to carry out.
 
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FoxEye said:
It's perfectly possible to be absolutely loyal up to a point - and no further.

When push comes to shove, and the order is given - when considering the stakes involved - there would be no winners. They must be intelligent enough to know they would be condemning the world to ruin for one man's ambition. Putting their own families to death. If it's a first strike, that's a heck of a test of your loyalty (and sanity).

And a movement against Putin could happen spontaneously at the last minute (see Wagner) rather than being pre-agreed. And might not need more than a few people to carry out.
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I wouldn't bet on that, maybe but there are a lot of ways that probably wouldn't happen. People want to believe this kind of sanity would provide a check but I'd not be so sure.

Realistically you'd need a larger armed force i.e. if the National Guard had sided with Wagner - Putin's security detail is substantial and control most of what goes on around him to a degree the media doesn't really portray - very few people actually get close to him and most of the time when they appear to it is staged CGI or actors, etc.
 
Lima said:
You honestly think Russia would just accept that and cower away? Whilst I don’t doubt that would be NATO’s response, it wouldn’t end there. Russia would at minimum tactical nuke military bases in Eastern Europe and it would escalate dangerously from there.
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It may be that China help the Durma pop-off Putin (ie support conventional arms but withdraw support nuclear support). I can't see China wanting tales of "whoops apocalypseski" and "Dr Strangeloveski" in the national curriculum. Russia need China and if China feel locked into a scenario (ie nuclear and no option to support or face nuclear on their own border) that the pressure on the Duma will build.

Putin wants a war. Period. I'm unsure if China want that.. unless it's on their own terms.
 
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