Soldato
Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar
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It may be that China help the Durma pop-off Putin (ie support conventional arms but withdraw support nuclear support). I can't see China wanting tales of "whoops apocalypseski" and "Dr Strangeloveski" in the national curriculum. Russia need China and if China feel locked into a scenario (ie nuclear and no option to support or face nuclear on their own border) that the pressure on the Duma will build.
Putin wants a war. Period. I'm unsure if China want that.. unless it's on their own terms.
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I get the impression China thought it would be over one way or another in a matter of weeks - although that is a little at odds with supposed leaks from Russian officials that China would move on Taiwan around the end of 2022 while the West was distracted by the war.
I thought it had already started?
Soldato
Soldato
To be honest, though you never know with Russia, if Ukraine had the capability to hit them where they are parked up they'd probably start putting them in hardened shelters - though they've been slow learning that lesson in the past and these strategic bombers aren't easily replaced - hence why like 60+ year old ones are still flying.
Soldato
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Xi has set a deadline himself by 2024 of taking back Taiwan either by peaceful means or by force
Soldato
Thought quotes before were 2027
Soldato
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My mistake it wasn't 2024, but "in 4 years" back in 2021 so by 2025 he wants Taiwan back under Chinese rule
China could mount full-scale invasion by 2025, Taiwan defence minister says
Comments come as Biden and Xi agree to stick to Taiwan agreements amid rising tension in Indo-Pacific
www.theguardian.com
War with China over Taiwan is likely in 2025, warns U.S. General Mike Minihan: ‘I hope I am wrong’
U.S. General Mike Minihan just outlined why China’s Xi Jinping will likely launch an invasion of Taiwan in 2025.
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Soldato
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Even if that wasn't the intention, it was a side effect.
Associate
do you know why this 'no move east' comment was made? obviously not because you wouldn't be quoting it as a de facto promiseIt's really fortunate that we have all these declassified documents showing that we did in fact promise the Russians not to expand Eastwards when they handed over East Germany.
NATO Expansion: What Gorbachev Heard | National Security Archive
Western leaders gave multiple assurances against NATO expansion to Gorbachev in 1990-1991 according to declassified American, Russian, British, Germans documentsnsarchive.gwu.edu
It seems that we didn't actually adhere to what we promised them, and even when they didn't kick up too much of a fuss about all the Baltic states, the US insisted on interfering in Ukraine - which they explicitly made clear was a red line, so here we are.
it was made to Gorbachev prior to German reunification. the reason it was made was because at that time east Germany was home to the GSFG (group of soviet forces German) a fair chunk of the Warsaw Pact's amour, airframes, men, etc.
and the 'no move eastwards' promise was made with the intent of preventing the possibility, however small, of a low-level conflict between NATO forces and WP forces
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RE: China - I think there a re couple of perspectives.
1. China clearly is no fan of the western domination and has plans to usurp the US and West as the greatest power and in that sense the fact that Putin has created such a distraction is useful for them. It takes focus from them while they sort out their economy and address some of the technological weaknesses / prepare to take Taiwan back.
2. The fall of Russia would put them is a huge position of regional power. They could benefit from a population boost which they need as their birthrate is not enough to sustain their economy. It would also open the door to even more influence in the 'stans and Caucasus which represent a gateway to Europe and the middle east.
I don't think they lose either way. Probably ideally Putin drags this out for another 12 months and then Russia implodes, needs a complete bail out and Xi names his price. Using nukes would close that one lifeline they may have when/if it all falls over.
Gonzalo Lira for some reason was let out on bail in Ukraine
He then proceeded to post on Twitter that he's going to try and escape Ukraine and claim asylum in Hungary
Too bad for him, he's been arrested before he could cross the border
Gonzalo was living in Kharkiv, so why is it he wanted to flee to Hungary when he could just cross into Russia, the Russian border is right there... why is it that all these Western pro putin ******** do everything in their power to avoid living in Russia. McGregor, Gonzalo, Roar, Scott Ritter, Zoka, Geroman, Tucker Carlson - none of them want to go live in Russia, they run away at every opportunity
He then proceeded to post on Twitter that he's going to try and escape Ukraine and claim asylum in Hungary
Too bad for him, he's been arrested before he could cross the border
Gonzalo was living in Kharkiv, so why is it he wanted to flee to Hungary when he could just cross into Russia, the Russian border is right there... why is it that all these Western pro putin ******** do everything in their power to avoid living in Russia. McGregor, Gonzalo, Roar, Scott Ritter, Zoka, Geroman, Tucker Carlson - none of them want to go live in Russia, they run away at every opportunity
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Soldato
They love to get this drum out and bang it every few months. Its such an empty threat. The top military and oligarchs all want to spend their ill gotten gains at their properties abroad in the future and living in a radioactive wasteland with their families isn't up there on their list of things to do.
Soldato
I don't think Russia or China expected the Western response to this and I would think that gave China a huge headache to deal with. If they thought they could take Taiwan and all they'd have to deal with is sanctions I could have seen them trying it. Thankfully our leaders grew a backbone and the WH had someone in it again who gave a **** about its allies.
I take it Taiwan not part of Nato
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Soldato
No it won't. They'll just have their **** royally pushed in with conventional weapons. If they detonate one outside of Ukraine though, well....
Soldato
No but it is an ally and the West should absolutely have their back.
Soldato
Absolutely agreed.
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