Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

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Bug One said:
The end game is to push Russia out, provide Ukraine with adequate forces to keep them out, then Ukraine joins NATO.
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Remember that end game needs Ukraine to be at peace before joining NATO.

Are you thinking Putin won't realise that and sign a peace treaty so he has time to rearm, then go "d'oh!" when Ukraine jumps into NATO and that's the end game ended?

Or will NATO let an at war country join? (obviously they won't) The posts above yours are specifically about this issue. Peace won't happen without a defeat and it's difficult to "defeat" a nation state if they have lots of people and those people have no belief in self determination. Innit.
 
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Griffo said:
Remember that end game needs Ukraine to be at peace before joining NATO.

Are you thinking Putin won't realise that and sign a peace treaty so he has time to rearm, then go "d'oh!" when Ukraine jumps into NATO and that's the end game ended?

Or will NATO let an at war country join? (obviously they won't) The posts above yours are specifically about this issue. Peace won't happen without a defeat and it's difficult to "defeat" a nation state if they have lots of people and those people have no belief in self determination. Innit.
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They are not technically at war - no one has declared War.
 
Bug One said:
The end game is to push Russia out, provide Ukraine with adequate forces to keep them out, then Ukraine joins NATO. + annoying the leeds massive
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I read that ^^^ :D

I’m sure that will not be the last time russia’s politicians decided that a nazi-style 1939 blitzkrieg is on the books..
 
Griffo said:
OK an 'at border dispute country'. The end result is the same.
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But does a border dispute really block entry - if it does all Russia needs to do is claim a few feet of terratory of any prospective member and that would prevent entry.

I do think Ukraine would need to take its borders back though to be accepted.
 
RxR said:
if Ukraine gets its borders 'back' and Moscow keeps lobbing missiles or whatever over the border...what next?
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Then Ukraine start lobbing back. The only thing keeping Russia in this war is the Ukrainians staying out of Russian territory. If Vladolf starts that kind of nonsense after the Ukrainians have pushed Russia out, he will likely end up on the wrong side of a de-militarised zone.
 
My take is that IF (and its a big one of course) Ukraine can re-establish their borders NATO has a plan.
They seem to keep making positive noises, inviting Zelensky to NATO stuff etc

If its as simple as Russia making a minor incursion would halt progress I dont think they would be bothering.

Plus ofc. Not day 1, but IMO the border between Ukraine and Russia/Belarus is going to make the border between NK and SK look like a country park.
 
Mercenary Keyboard Warrior said:
My take is that IF (and its a big one of course) Ukraine can re-establish their borders NATO has a plan.
They seem to keep making positive noises, inviting Zelensky to NATO stuff etc

If its as simple as Russia making a minor incursion would halt progress I dont think they would be bothering.

Plus ofc. Not day 1, but IMO the border between Ukraine and Russia/Belarus is going to make the border between NK and SK look like a country park.
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Minefields and dragon’s teeth funnelling anything heavier than a pushbike into HIMARs killzones. I’d imagine that the UA would have sizeable QRF elements nearby with lots of shiny NATO toys on hand to mop up what’s left of anyone insane enough to attempt a breakthrough.
 
True.

There are so many possible scenarios that trying to predict the future and what could happen is really just for the wargamers.

I mean I personally wonder what would happen if Putin was just to drop down dead. How quickly and whether they would carry on or if there could be a stall in Russias aggression whilst his replacement was fully embedded.
I am not saying I think its likely but every day that passes increases the chances that its his last day on Earth.
The disruption may be just enough to give Ukraine a significant break.

Terminal_Boy said:
Minefields and dragon’s teeth funnelling anything heavier than a pushbike into HIMARs killzones. I’d imagine that the UA would have sizeable QRF elements nearby with lots of shiny NATO toys on hand to mop up what’s left of anyone insane enough to attempt a breakthrough.
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Indeed.

Plus with drones. Dont even need many forces nearby to be able to bring some significant firepower to bear.
Decently embedded AA systems etc
 
An interesting discussion about the Armenia and Azerbaijan situation. It's related to Ukraine because it seems that Armenia can no longer rely on Russian security to help them stop Azerbaijan nibbling at their country.

 
SpellowHouse said:
Yes, I think it's doubtful, too. I am not sure what the endgame for this war is. It all seems to come down to political staying power, and the West doesn't really have much of that these days.
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The end game IMO is for Ukraine to keep the pressure on Russia on the battlefield, keep doing what their doing while in the background the rest of the world needs to make sure sanctions on Russia are being rigorously imposed and the Russian economy gets slowly chocked to death. We are already seeing the Russian economy devolving, the Ruble has depreciated massively against all major world currencies, interest rates are at 13%, Russia sovereign wealth fund will be depleted by the end of year. I would argue Russia is already in a technical recession as a lot more of the goods it's producing in 2023 isn't going into the economy to improve living conditions or improve productivity but takes the form of missiles and other military armaments that's getting sent straight into Ukraine and used up and Putin has said there is no limit to what can be spent on the military.

The idea that Russia was going to be just fine because it could sell it's oil and gas to China and India turns out was just fantastical as Putin thinking he could conquer Ukraine in 3 days thanks to price caps and logistics. If this keeps up this time next year Russia will be feeling the pain economically, this will ultimately be the nail in Russia's coffin just like it was in Afghanistan back in the 80's for the USSR, even Putin won't the able to keep a lid on all the dissatisfaction and someone or more likely a group of people will likely tell him it's time to retire to his Dacha in Sochi. After that regardless of how nationalistic someone might be to fix the economic problems they will have to call an end to the war in Ukraine, pull their armies back and start peace talks.

That's all provided the west stays the course and does what it takes to give Ukraine the best chance of victory which is a big if. I have worries for 2024 that we won't be able to provide Ukraine with enough artillery shells as production woefully lags behind demand and stocks have been run down pretty much everywhere at this point. I know it's only one piece of the puzzle but it's pretty much the only weapon system that both sides can rely on to move the frontlines. With some luck hopefully the F-16 program closes out some of that gap with it's ground attack capabilities.
 
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