Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

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Trump advisor says Trump wants a tiered NATO system from 2025, where article 5 only applies to countries who spend 2% or more GDP on defence and also countries who fail to meet the 2% will lose access to U.S military supplies - for example let's say your country spends 1.5% and your F35 needs new spare parts, well better not ask America for parts if Trump is there. Lastly countries may also be excluded from participating in joint exercises- such a lol idea

So in summary, any country who doesn't pay at least 2% will according to Trump lose:

* article 5 protections
* access to American parts and supplies
* access to major joint exercises

Trump's advisor says anyone who doesn't like it can take the door and leave

 
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ubersonic said:
Regardless of what anyone's opinion on destroying war memorials is, the idea that Russia is issuing arrest warrants for leaders of countries doing it is comical :p

I will however add the caveat though that it's comical unless the memorial in question had legal protection. I.E there's a Soviet war memorial in the east of Germany which is legally protected under the very acts of reunification, Germany are required to maintain it until the end of time. If some of the ones in Estonia had similar legal protection then I can understand a slight possible maybe argument for Russia trying to issue international arrest warrants for those responsible for their destruction.



Historically speaking the C1 and C2 weren't really known for driving round exchanging shells with T-55/72s, but for putting shells through them from 2+ miles away.

As Deadpool says it's cool but it's not very cinematic.
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Maybe we’ll get arrested soon… We still have those fancy bronze Russian cannons we cut chunks off occasionally.
 
Not gonna quote the post because it's sure to be removed, but I wonder why the combat video posted above has selectively edited those particular 2 minutes from the original posted by the Ukrainian unit :confused:. What with the majority of the 14 minute original seeming to show a lot of Russians being killed (thankfully corpses blurred out) in return for 1 possibly 2 WIA and a destroyed humvee. Along with some strange moments like a Russian solider panicking and running around in circles. Makes it rather hard to believe the other claims in the post, no?
 
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Grim5 said:
Trump advisor says Trump wants a tiered NATO system from 2025, where article 5 only applies to countries who spend 2% or more GDP on defence and also countries who fail to meet the 2% will lose access to U.S military supplies - for example let's say your country spends 1.5% and your F35 needs new spare parts, well better not ask America for parts if Trump is there. Lastly countries may also be excluded from participating in joint exercises- such a lol idea

So in summary, any country who doesn't pay at least 2% will according to Trump lose:

* article 5 protections
* access to American parts and supplies
* access to major joint exercises

Trump's advisor says anyone who doesn't like it can take the door and leave

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Isn't the easy answer to pay the amount of money you agreed to pay?
 
Grim5 said:
Trump advisor says Trump wants a tiered NATO system from 2025, where article 5 only applies to countries who spend 2% or more GDP on defence and also countries who fail to meet the 2% will lose access to U.S military supplies - for example let's say your country spends 1.5% and your F35 needs new spare parts, well better not ask America for parts if Trump is there. Lastly countries may also be excluded from participating in joint exercises- such a lol idea

So in summary, any country who doesn't pay at least 2% will according to Trump lose:

* article 5 protections
* access to American parts and supplies
* access to major joint exercises

Trump's advisor says anyone who doesn't like it can take the door and leave

Click to expand...

This is just loltastic. So Trump is about to core out the American defence industry… I can feel another career change soon.
 
Roar87 said:
Isn't the easy answer to pay the amount of money you agreed to pay?
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I'm not surprised but after all your hand wringing when it comes to the loss of life and so on when it comes to Ukraine, it is interesting you take Trump's side when he threatens to sic Russia on any country "not paying America to protect them" as he loosely termed it.
 
Rroff said:
I'm not surprised but after all your hand wringing when it comes to the loss of life and so on when it comes to Ukraine, it is interesting you take Trump's side when he threatens to sic Russia on any country "not paying America to protect them" as he loosely termed it.
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It's interesting that you don't take Trumps side when he tells European allies to spend more on defence considering you're certain Putin is about to invade lol
 
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Roar87 said:
It's interesting that you don't take Trumps side when he tells European allies to spend more on defence considering you're certain Putin is about to invade lol
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Trump has a wall to build and a swamp to drain. The question is if that forced hard labour as part of his program of rehabilitation.
 
Roar87 said:
It's interesting that you don't take Trumps side when he tells European allies to spend more on defence considering you're certain Putin is about to invade lol
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Yet another **** take from you...

I can advocate for, and frequently do, countries to spend more on defence, without having to takes Trump's side.

If you actually bothered to read my posts I've taken a far more nuanced position on Putin invading Europe and definitely not said Putin is imminently going to invade Europe. (In fact I've frequently said I don't think it is either imminent or inevitable but there is a significant, potentially avoidable, risk of the possibility, especially if we show Putin we are weak or unprepared).
 
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Rroff said:
Yet another **** take from you...

I can advocate for, and frequently do, countries to spend more on defence, without having to takes Trump's side.
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That is literally Trumps entire point though, it's not more complex. Anything else is just WWE style bluster because it's an American election and he was at an election rally.

Rroff said:
If you actually bothered to read my posts I've taken a far more nuanced position on Putin invading Europe and definitely not said Putin is imminently going to invade Europe. (In fact I've frequently said I don't think it is either imminent or inevitable but there is a significant, potentially avoidable, risk of the possibility, especially if we show Putin we are weak or unprepared).
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No there's not, if they can't capture Kyiv then how is there a risk they go further? They've taken just 20% of one single Eastern European country and taken 300,000+ casualties and lost about 50% of their hardware. Just stop with this **** take, I know the media repeat it because it's a propaganda line in order to win support for Ukraine, but it's very easy to logically see that it's impossible.
 
Roar87 said:
No there's not, if they can't capture Kyiv then how is there a risk they go further? They've taken just 20% of one single Eastern European country and taken 300,000+ casualties and lost about 50% of their hardware. Just stop with this **** take, I know the media repeat it because it's a propaganda line in order to win support for Ukraine, but it's very easy to logically see that it's impossible.
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Not that this deserves a serious answer but...

Russia has lost a tiny fraction of its available for combat manpower, albeit they've lost a good percentage of their best trained and best experienced personnel, but then more will be gaining significant experience through the Ukraine war - there is no substitute to lessons learned in real combat. Even the poorer far east regions they've been heavily pulling man power from they've not exceeded around 10% of the reserves, in most regions that is still below 1%. If Putin goes down that path they can still mobilise world war levels of man power.

Despite sanctions and 100s of billions of currency frozen Putin still has significant cash reserves and the support of regimes like China and Iran, etc. enough if he chooses to go all in to fund a full mobilisation, chances are he won't, but it is still entirely possible and the more this situation progresses the less Russia has to lose from being on a war footing, especially as increased military spending more and more underpins their domestic economy which would result in a huge economic shock trying to back pedal from a war economy.

Russia is going through a process of de-privatisation of strategic industry - the first steps to serious rearmament and while slow is increasing production of equipment, they have and/or can produce everything they need domestically except for advanced semi-conductors - but their domestic industry can still produce electronics sufficient to go to war with - they can still produce the full range of discrete components capable of late 90s/early 2000s electronics (they've also potentially got avenues for acquiring more advanced electronics via the likes of China).

Russia is capable of learning from the problems they've had so far and fixing them and Putin has several times demonstrated his intentions go far beyond carving off a little bit of Ukraine, to not take that seriously would be foolish.

So like I said, I don't believe an invasion of Europe or something which triggered a wider conflict is certain, inevitable or imminent but I do think we absolutely should not ignore the risks and further deter them by showing Putin we are strong and determined, which he has shown many times to ultimately be the only thing he understands in this context and only feeds on and is encouraged to act by perceived weakness.
 
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Trumps major problem is he talks and acts like he is addressing a board meeting of sycophants and not the world stage.

A normal politician would call for NATO allies to increase spending and bolster supplies in a show of strength. People would listen. Oh America thinks this. Maybe we should do it.

Trump literally ***** the bed threatening to not honour agreements, other idle threats and bluffs, threatening to set Russia on you, I mean complete nonsense but, huge but, ......

People listen to his nonsense more than the message. Increase military spending.
Wipe off the nonsense, I know it's difficult, I hate it now. He can't win the election, people with his style, regardless of his actual real or not corruption allegations etc etc. He is so different to what the world needs. I'll be amazed if Taiwan doesn't get invaded if Trump wins, let alone tje Ukrainian situation.

2024... Trump or Biden? Jesus wept...
 
Article just released, not sure on all the sources, on Russia's existing and future military situation:

www.rusi.org

Russian Military Objectives and Capacity in Ukraine Through 2024

Russian forces are likely to peak in late 2024, with increasing material challenges over the course of 2025.
www.rusi.org www.rusi.org

Key points:

-Kremlin projects victory needs to be/can be achieved by 2026 within their current planning for manpower mobilisation and industry output, without having to go to a full war mobilisation.

-Russian air force highly constrained by availability of trained let alone experienced pilots.

-Expect to be able to produce approx. 1500 tanks a year until 2026 via ~20% new and 80% refurbished from stored war stock.

-Has somewhat stabilised semi-conductor supplies but only by extensive investment in trying to expand on them which has failed.

-Required to manufacture ~5.6 million artillery shells over 2024 to be able to continue it aspirations in Ukraine in 2025, projected to only be able to produce about half of that with an expected lead-time of 5 years to setup new factories and material processing to accomplish that level of production. (5 years is likely not a hard limit and could be much quicker with civilian and industry mobilisation for the war effort).

-Has approx. 3 million rounds of artillery ammo left in storage, likely poor condition however, NK can provide around 2 million rounds.

-Russian prospects are declining, but it will depend on foreign support as to if Ukraine can out weather Russia to a point where the only option for both sides is to negotiate with Ukraine having the stronger hand, but that assumes Russia continues, or is limited to, the current trajectory of manpower, civil and industrial mobilisation towards the war effort.

EDIT:

The Russian aim for victory by 2026:

Surrender terms currently being proposed by Russian intermediaries include Ukraine ceding the territory already under Russian control along with Kharkiv, and in some versions Odessa; agreeing not to join NATO; and maintaining a head of state approved by Russia. The only significant concession Russia proposes is that what is left of Ukraine can join the EU.
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i.e. forcing capitulation of the entire country by establishing a geographic stranglehold and a head of state who can basically hand the rest of the country over to Russia.
 
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Rroff said:
Not that this deserves a serious answer but...

Russia has lost a tiny fraction of its available for combat manpower, albeit they've lost a good percentage of their best trained and best experienced personnel, but then more will be gaining significant experience through the Ukraine war - there is no substitute to lessons learned in real combat. Even the poorer far east regions they've been heavily pulling man power from they've not exceeded around 10% of the reserves, in most regions that is still below 1%. If Putin goes down that path they can still mobilise world war levels of man power.
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I think you need to look at this not from an army manpower but a nation manpower. If this is 10% of 10% then 1% of a nation being lost is a rather large deal. Now I could work out the details but it's probably in the 0.1-1.0% range at the moment. That's 0.1-1% and the nation's economy is close to breaking point. The nation has a history of revolution once a threshold that the serfdom can't tolerate.
 
D.P. said:
No , the easy answer is to make sure Trump is in prison and barred from politics due to being a treasonous insurrectionist.
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But then the ant-hill mob (capital hill get it?!:D) would try and break him out of prison and we end up with a Mexican-style cartel operating.
 
NickK said:
I think you need to look at this not from an army manpower but a nation manpower. If this is 10% of 10% then 1% of a nation being lost is a rather large deal. Now I could work out the details but it's probably in the 0.1-1.0% range at the moment. That's 0.1-1% and the nation's economy is close to breaking point. The nation has a history of revolution once a threshold that the serfdom can't tolerate.
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It is still an open question really how far Russia might go or is prepared to go or how much their society will tolerate. So far they don't show many signs of pushing back against Putin.
 
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