When are you going fully electric?

Nasher · 12 Oct 2018 at 19:01

Until you can get something interesting for 20-25k, people aren't going to buy them on mass. A generic hatchback with batteries for 40k just doesn't tempt me.

I don't think there is much the government can do, they just need to let it happen naturally.

b0rn2sk8 · 12 Oct 2018 at 19:20

Amp34 said:
Not a fan of the idea of increasing fuel duty to persuade people to move to EV - all it does is penalize those that are least able to afford the move to EV. Instead I think Norway/Icelands methods make more sense, reduce the cost of the cars in the first place by reducing VAT.

Which is why I said the market isn't big enough yet, specifically second hand. You are probably looking at another 8 years before they can really start ramping fuel duty, though the biggest barrier to rising fuel duty is the transport industry lobby. Combined with increases in 'road tax' which is already happening (for new ICE) will quickly move the demand over to EV's.

But given that most EV's are back ordered, demand isn't really a problem. Another reason why the gov can justify dropping the incentive.

Amp34 · 13 Oct 2018 at 02:17

b0rn2sk8 said:
Which is why I said the market isn't big enough yet, specifically second hand. You are probably looking at another 8 years before they can really start ramping fuel duty, though the biggest barrier to rising fuel duty is the transport industry lobby. Combined with increases in 'road tax' which is already happening (for new ICE) will quickly move the demand over to EV's.

But given that most EV's are back ordered, demand isn't really a problem. Another reason why the gov can justify dropping the incentive.

Even then it's sill going to affect those least able to afford it. Sure it'll catch those well off people with their V8's, but it'll get a lot more of those people with 15 year old £500 vehicles that they can't afford to change to even a used EV.

VincentHanna · 13 Oct 2018 at 08:32

I assume the Goverment could just say - Right, all EV's for the next 5 years are only subject to 5% VAT?

bimbleuk · 13 Oct 2018 at 09:36

I expect when battery supply starts to ramp up thing will start to change quite rapidly. If you look at what makes up my i3 excluding the exotic carbon fibre passenger cell there's basically a motor/generator, inverter, BMS and a dirty great battery pack! In theory I can easily upgrade to the 120 ah (42 kw) battery just released but BMW are not offering this or charge a silly price where available due to supply I assume.

Nasher · 13 Oct 2018 at 10:00

b0rn2sk8 said:
Which is why I said the market isn't big enough yet, specifically second hand. You are probably looking at another 8 years before they can really start ramping fuel duty, though the biggest barrier to rising fuel duty is the transport industry lobby. Combined with increases in 'road tax' which is already happening (for new ICE) will quickly move the demand over to EV's.

But given that most EV's are back ordered, demand isn't really a problem. Another reason why the gov can justify dropping the incentive.

The main reason for them being back-ordered is production is pretty limited I think. They need a fair amount of rare-Earth materials too (which is likely going to be an issue in future).

Domi · 13 Oct 2018 at 10:23

I predict that within a year one of the newer 250+ mile range EVs like the new Kia/Hyundai will be available for lease at sub £250 a month and for me that is the golden price / range point.

If anybody does see such a deal please shout.

Jonnycoupe · 13 Oct 2018 at 10:29

Especially for self employed when BIK is 2%. Through the accounts and then low fuel costs. A few I pace deals at £400 but only 5k mileage.

b0rn2sk8 · 13 Oct 2018 at 10:34

Nasher said:
The main reason for them being back-ordered is production is pretty limited I think. They need a fair amount of rare-Earth materials too (which is likely going to be an issue in future).

It’s got nothing to do with the supply of raw materials, most companies are constrained by their cell production. Its just down demand ramping up faster than supply. Cell production has to be planned well in advance and takes a long time to bring more capacity online, it’s difficult to predict how popular a car will be in the early adopter phase if you are not Tesla.

Companies have misjudged the demand for the car and not purchased enough cells (Ionic and Bolt are perfect examples of this) which constrained supply.

A good example to look at is Tesla’s energy decision, it is cell starved and there are huge back orders for powerwalls, a much simpler product to make than an EV.

Haggisman · 13 Oct 2018 at 15:20

satchef1 said:
IIRC the claim is submitted by the dealer at the point of delivery. But it's been 3 years since I bought the Zoe, so I may be remembering wrongly.

Hopefully there's a reasonable solution, or somebody points out the flaw in Mr Hammond's decisions and he delays the change.

Just spoke to my dealer and my order isn't affected as the claim has already been submitted

Bald-Eagle22 · 14 Oct 2018 at 17:32

Hopefully never .

peter · 14 Oct 2018 at 22:00

this arrived friday

better than our old leaf and cheaper than the new one.
It has enough range for my commute and is a bit of a treat.

bimbleuk · 27 Oct 2018 at 08:18

So 2 months with my i3 and with just over 1400 miles it's cost £50 charging at home compared to £250 in petrol if I had kept driving my Celica. Home charger cost £200 with the gov grant so I guess it's already paid for it's self if you exclude the cost of the newish car of course

Temps down to 0C here and no big drop in range yet though consumption may be slipping below 4.0 m/kwh compared to the 4.1 m/kwh (15.3 kwh/100km) I've been seeing up till now. Range after being sat in a car park at sub zero temps is the next unknown to me.

**EDIT** Now it's been sat in zero temps it's the consumption that's reducing the range. The indicated charge might drop 0.5-1% but the average consumption has dropped to less than 4 miles per kwh.

Telecaster · 27 Oct 2018 at 19:37

How do we overcome the issue of those without drives at home for charging them on? Busy terraced streets where parking near your house is a complete lottery depending on when you arrive home or whether other people on the street have visitors and the street is full, meaning you're round the corner or such like.

The charging infrastructure is going to take some serious work before EVs are a viable, convenient alternative to ICE.

robj20 · 28 Oct 2018 at 07:05

Telecaster said:
How do we overcome the issue of those without drives at home for charging them on? Busy terraced streets where parking near your house is a complete lottery depending on when you arrive home or whether other people on the street have visitors and the street is full, meaning you're round the corner or such like.

The charging infrastructure is going to take some serious work before EVs are a viable, convenient alternative to ICE.

They don't care about such issues.

Jonnycoupe · 28 Oct 2018 at 09:31

Telecaster said:
How do we overcome the issue of those without drives at home for charging them on? Busy terraced streets where parking near your house is a complete lottery depending on when you arrive home or whether other people on the street have visitors and the street is full, meaning you're round the corner or such like.

The charging infrastructure is going to take some serious work before EVs are a viable, convenient alternative to ICE.

You don’t try boiling the ocean on day one.

Telecaster · 28 Oct 2018 at 09:39

Jonnycoupe said:
You don’t try boiling the ocean on day one.

I think we're way past day one, and the best we've got is wealthy people who live in places with enough space to park vehicles outside their front door and a few chargers at motorway service stations.

Nobody seems to be coming up with the solutions for the mass market and your average person.

EV development may be marching on but nothing seems to be getting done about the infrastructure.

Jonnycoupe · 28 Oct 2018 at 10:07

So we’re not at day one for infrastructure or are we? The CCS and Ionity is part of that now the demand has started to grow.

[TW]Fox · 28 Oct 2018 at 10:35

Jonnycoupe said:
So we’re not at day one for infrastructure

No, we're not. We are 6 years on from the point at which you can say full plugins went mainstream (release of Zoe, Leaf, Tesla Model S etc).

bimbleuk · 28 Oct 2018 at 11:02

Telecaster said:
How do we overcome the issue of those without drives at home for charging them on? Busy terraced streets where parking near your house is a complete lottery depending on when you arrive home or whether other people on the street have visitors and the street is full, meaning you're round the corner or such like.

The charging infrastructure is going to take some serious work before EVs are a viable, convenient alternative to ICE.

Better infrastructure with enough battery capacity but combined with extremely fast charging capability. Larger and larger batteries just take longer to charge. 150 kw are being installed now (350 kw soon to follow) to serve the 90kwh+ batteries on the road. The ones I saw on YT in Norway had water cooled (or heated) cables so RGB to follow shortly

There is a lot of research in battery tech going on and though only a few may make commercial scaling maybe the original inventor of Lithium batteries has a decent chance at least. Article linked below.

https://news.utexas.edu/2017/02/28/goodenough-introduces-new-battery-technology